Поведенческие финансы

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    16-Jun-2015

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<ul><li> 1. :<br /> Behavioral Finance<br /><br /></li></ul> <p> 2. <br /> ( ) , <br />, ,<br /> , .<br /> , <br /><br /><br />. <br /> 3. <br /><br /> ,<br /><br /><br /> .<br /> , , .( ) <br /> 4. <br /> .<br />( ) <br /><br /> .<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />(. Bias ) <br /> 5. <br /> :<br /> IQ, 100 . , , .<br /> 6. <br />: <br /> , <br /> (1934)<br /> (1949)<br /> ,<br /> .<br /> 7. <br /> , , . ()<br />:<br /> : <br /><br /> , 1979 <br /><br /> 2002 :<br /><br /> , <br /> 8. <br /> : <br /> $100 , $100.<br /> 9. <br /><br /> ,<br /> .<br /> :<br /><br />, ,<br /> .<br /> :<br /> , , .<br /> 10. <br /><br /> 11. ?<br /> 12. ?<br /> !<br /> 13. <br /> 14. .. buy &amp; hold<br /> 200 $1 $775 163<br /> 15. buy &amp; hold<br /> 10% , 5%.<br /> 16. buy &amp; hold - <br /> 10 <br /> 17. <br /> - .<br /> .<br /> ?<br /> :<br /> .<br /> 18. <br /> 19. , :<br /> : 2006 - 2011<br /> 20. ?<br /> . . <br /> , .<br /> 21. <br /> 24 100% <br /> 22. <br /><br /> 23. <br /> :<br />, - , 21 .<br /> :<br /> (C-system) (-system).<br /> : <br /> .<br /> 24. <br /> 25. <br />-system ( / )<br />C-system ( , )<br /> : .<br />.. , .<br />, , .<br /> 26. <br />: Cognitive Reflection Task (CRT)<br /> : Shane Frederick (MIT)<br />( )<br /> 27. 1<br /> 28. 1<br /> 11 . 10 . ?<br /> 29. 2<br /> 30. 2<br /> . , 100 100 ?<br /> 31. 3<br /> 32. 3<br /> . . , 30 , , ?<br /> 33. .<br /> 34. <br /> 50 .<br /> .<br />29 .<br /> :<br />17% .<br />31% (!) .<br /> :<br />40% .<br />10% (!) .<br /> 35. X- :<br /><br /> , <br /> , , <br /> - <br /><br /><br /> .<br /> 36. <br /> 37. <br /> 38. Anchoring<br /> , . , ( ).<br /><br /><br /> 0 100.<br />, <br /><br /> , <br /> .<br /> 39. Probabilities<br /> .<br /> 60% .<br /> , ?<br />80% , .<br /> 40% .<br /> , ?<br />20% , .<br /> 40. Mental accounting<br /> $10.<br />, .<br /> $10?<br />- , $10 - .<br /> .<br />, $10.<br /> $10?<br />- , , $10 .<br /> $10. , . , .<br /> 41. Overconfidence<br />74% , . <br /> . , .<br /> 42. <br /> 43. Gambling<br /> , .<br /> : /.<br /> :<br /> , .<br /> . <br /> . , .<br />:<br /> , .<br /> .<br /> , : 50% 50%.<br /> 44. Magic Thinking<br /> 15 , .<br /> . , , , . , , .<br /> 45. Overreacting<br /> 11- ():<br /> , , .<br /> 94% .<br /> ,<br /> , <br /><br /><br /><br />.<br /> 46. <br /> 47. Dependency<br /><br /><br /> . -, <br /> .<br /> ?<br /></p> <ul><li> , ? </li></ul> <p> 48. ? 49. 1/3 </p>