Выбор типа прогностической модели

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(), j. </p> <p> j :</p> <p> I </p> <p> .</p> <p> , (7) , yij :</p> <p> II </p> <p> I : </p> <p> . </p> <p> , , . </p> <p> IIIIIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXXXIXII200412,6511,9411,4210,000,088,919,6110,4411,413,3012,3114,50134,57200513,8713,5513,3813,0510,4811,1811,2613,4213,7913,3613,1114,73155,18200613,3613,3413,1611,909,1910,8316,9918,8219,0419,4115,6517,87179,66 39,8838,9337,9634,9527,7530,9237,8642,6844,0746,0741,0747,10494,41 13,2912,9812,6511,6592,510,3112,6214,2314,7515,3613,6915,7013,04(3.2.33) +0,250,060,391,393,792,730,42+3,19+1,71+2,32+0,65+2,66 ( %) +1,90,53,010,729,120,93,2+9,1+13,1+17,8+5,0+20,4 [%]101,999,597,089,370,979,196,8109,1113,1117,8105,0120,4</p> <p> , , , , ( ). . , : . , .</p> <p> , . , . y1, y2, , ym y2, y3, , ym+1 .. , , . , . . .</p> <p> , 3. . , </p> <p> n=2; </p> <p> :</p> <p> n=3 , . .</p> <p> , 5. .</p> <p>, :</p> <p> n=3. </p> <p> :</p> <p> n=4, . .</p> <p> , , m-1, m . , , , . </p> <p> ( ) m=4, . , , . .</p> <p> 1. 4 . n-m+1 n . :</p> <p> , . </p> <p> : </p> <p> ;</p> <p> 2. </p> <p> ( ), , .. . </p> <p> n-m : </p> <p> ; </p> <p> , ..</p> <p> 3. (yi) :</p> <p> i- ( ) . , , . , . 4. . . </p> <p> y1 20X1- , .. 5 . 4 (n-m)/m ij , i , j . : :</p> <p> : </p> <p> : </p> <p> 5. . . , , : </p> <p> :</p> <p> , . . ( n=20) 4 , . </p> <p> 6. . ( ) 4 (, , 12 ), 1. ( )</p> <p> 4, </p> <p> 7. ( ) </p> <p> . , S=4. , . - ( ) 100% ( %): </p> <p> , , . . 8. yi, ( yij , i , j ) </p> <p> : I </p> <p> II </p> <p> , . , : n=20 , m=4 , . . 2. 7- 8- . , . . 14 .2 . </p> <p> : 4- (8), : 17=20-4+1 ; . 5;2) ; 16=20-4; . 6.3) ( ) i; . 7. , i yn 4- i (. 4) : (. 6) cj(4 . 44) (.4) : (.8)201I1160,950616,8II2211,298816,2III391615,8750,5670,611914,7IV41815,7515,6251,1521,138715,8202I51515,715,6250,9600,950615.8II62015,7515,7501,2701,298815,4III71015,7516,0000,6250,611916,3IV81816,2516,7501,0751,138715,8203I91717,2517,6250,9650,950617,9II10241818,5001,2971,298818,5III11131919,0000,6840,611921,2IV12221919,1251,1501,138719,3204I131719,2519,0000,8950,950617,9II142518,7518,6251,3421,298819,2III151118,5018,6250,5910,611918,0IV162118,7518,8751,1131,138718,4205I17181919,3750,9290,950618,9II182619,7520,2501,2841,298820,0III191420,750,611922,9IV20251,138721,9 3 4.4) ( , . 7 . 3 . . 3 , . . 3 (13)(16).</p> <p> (. 3)IIIIIIIV2010,5671,1522020,9601,2700,6251,0752030,9651,2970,6841,1502040,8951,3420,5911,1132050,9291,2843,7495,1932,4674,49 0,9373</p> <p>1,2987</p> <p>0,6168</p> <p>1,1138</p> <p>5) : ; ; . :</p> <p>{0,895; 0,929; 0,960; 0,965}</p> <p> :</p> <p>{1,270; 1,284; 1,297; 1,342} </p> <p> :</p> <p>{0,567; 0,591; 0,625; 0,684} ;</p> <p> :</p> <p>{1,075; 1,113; 1,150; 1,152} </p> <p>67) 45 . 4: . 3 ; . . 4. (. 4) ( ) I0,93730,94450,95056II1,29871,29871,29876III0,61680,61680,61189IV1,11381,11381,138743,96663,97453,9995 1,00841,0064 , . . 4 , 4, :</p> <p>0,9506+1,2988+0,6119+1,1387=4</p> <p>8) . 8 . 2, (24). . 9 . 2 , (). . , , , . , ( ) . .</p> <p> , , :</p> <p> ( ). </p> <p> . , : </p> <p> 0 2 : </p> <p> : </p> <p> 1. , , . . t, , , . t , .. 2. , .. / ( ): </p> <p> 3. . . 45 </p> <p> (), jtj yjyjcostjyjsintj, yjcos2tjyjsin2tj, I 016,84616,8460,00016,94116,8460,00016,934II/616,96514,7008,48316,9308,48314,70016,911III /316,8528,42614,60016,8398,42614,60016,828IV/216,6120,00016,61216,69216,6120,00016,699V2/316,6028,30114,38116,5298,30114,38116,548VI 5/616,42314,2108,21116,4948,21114,21016,405VII16,30416,3040,00016,32316,3040,00016,316VIII 7/616,30314,1108,15216,3348,15214,11016,315IX 4/316,4538,22711,25016,4258,22714,25016,414X 3/216,5460,00016,54616,57216,5460,00016,579XI 5/316,7638,38214,52016,7358,38214,52016,754XII 11/616,91414,6508,15716,8708,45714,65016,981199,5831,8520,362199,5840,0410,101199,884 : </p> <p> (. 6 .). (. 3) , . </p> <p>, . . . 78 . :</p> <p> :</p> <p> (. 9 .) .2) ., . 2 , . 3 (, ). . 4. (), j , yj, cj (cj -1) (cj -1)2 I ()16,84616,9410,99600,0040,000016II ()16,96516,9301,00200,0020,000004III ()16,85216,8391,00080,00080,00000064IV ()16,61216,6920,99520,00480,00002304V ()16,60216,5291,00440,00440,00001936VI ()16,42316,4940,99570,00430,00001849VII ()16,30416,3230,99820,00180,00000324VIII ()16,30316,3340,99810,00190,00000361IX ()16,45316,4251,00170,00170,00000289X ()16,54616,5720,99840,00160,00000256XI ()16,76316,7351,00160,00160,00000256XII ()16,91416,8701,00260,00260,00000676199,583199,58411,9947120,001687153) . . 5 . 1 ( ), . 6 . . 6, </p> <p> , , .. . , . , , . </p>