演讲提纲 一、传统发展战略必然导致不可 持续性 二、科学的发展观 三、科学发展观呼唤循环经济 四、生态赤字计算应引起中国 未来发展的充分注意 五、科学发展观催生绿色 GDP

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GDP. . . Capacity. Policy Window. Demand. 1992. 2050. . . . 2100. . . GDP . GDP / . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • GDP

  • GDP

  • 2100

  • GDP

  • ILO200383120026072843034 200247142 20.612002 10600 9500 68008900

    15.6 22.1 20.2

  • G-71993 16*106 6*106 9*106 9*106 8*106 13*106 21*106 G7111.7*106

    169*106 G75.9 4.3 7.7 11.5

  • UNEP 2002 608040 21006

  • 1 2 3

  • 1 2 3 4 5

  • 1 2 3

  • 122345

  • GDP

    1GDP2GDP3GDP4GDP56

  • 123

  • U

    1U2U3U

  • 1

    17

    19

    24

    17

    30

    19

    18

    22

    14

    15

    23

    28

    21

    14

    15

    18

    41

    49

    18

    16

    21

    21

    31

    30

    54

    28

    24

    14

    25

    28

    20

    30

    35

    30

    36

    25

    44

    23

    35

    42

    22

    24

    43

    50

    23

    30

    49

    18

    26

    40

    30

    36

    23

    33

    32

    26

    30

    33

    27

    27

    36

    25

    34

    47

    19

    35

    22

    33

    28

    34

    28

    44

    40

    42

    31

    40

    38

    38

    22

    38

    17

    28

    27

    43

    27

    46

    48

    26

    27

    34

    36

    35

    27

    43

    37

    39

    31

    26

    31

    15

    34

    26

    27

    30

    27

    35

    32

    1998GDP%

    GNP

    %

    Sheet1

    1998GNP1998GDP%

    4.717

    4.94219

    4.94224

    5.24717

    5.29830

    5.29819

    5.34718

    5.34722

    5.34714

    5.43815

    5.43823

    5.48128

    5.52121

    5.56114

    5.63515

    5.70418

    5.70441

    5.70449

    5.76818

    5.79916

    5.79921

    5.79921

    5.79931

    5.79930

    5.82954

    5.85828

    5.85824

    5.9414

    5.96625

    5.99128

    6.01620

    6.01630

    6.01635

    6.06430

    6.17436

    6.17425

    6.19444

    6.27323

    6.29235

    6.34642

    6.41322

    6.41324

    6.52243

    6.53750

    6.55123

    6.59330

    6.6249

    6.69718

    6.69726

    6.74540

    6.76830

    6.79136

    6.83523

    6.90833

    6.95732

    7.11526

    7.13130

    7.16233

    7.16227

    7.17827

    7.23736

    7.32625

    7.33334

    7.34647

    7.40219

    7.42735

    7.47322

    7.47933

    7.52328

    7.5734

    7.62628

    7.69644

    7.69640

    7.74142

    7.79631

    7.840

    7.80838

    7.86338

    7.9322

    7.96638

    8.03317

    8.05828

    8.12927

    8.16143

    8.17827

    8.18946

    8.18948

    8.26926

    8.28727

    8.41434

    8.42736

    8.47835

    8.72927

    8.98343

    9.10237

    9.18639

    9.91631

    9.91826

    9.97131

    10.07215

    10.0934

    10.12426

    10.14227

    10.19830

    10.28727

    10.31135

    10.44432

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 1

    283442

    323537

    373937

    333734

    373633

    383532

    GNP

    GNP

    Sheet1

    1965442819345421040

    197338321535437837

    198033371239337737

    198533331237334635

    19893237123633

    199525381135232533

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 1

    33.7

    35.5

    34.4

    34.1

    33.7

    33

    32.1

    31.8

    1994

    1995

    1996

    GNP

    GNP

    Sheet1

    198033.541.933.736.432.233.7

    198530.84130.53432.435.5

    198829.440.729.829.828.734.4

    198928.440.929.330.128.834.1

    199027.741.229.229.628.933.7

    199126.841.228.828.328.633

    199225.840.428.127.827.532.1

    199325.839.227.428.427.231.8

    199438.326.728.426.8

    19953826.52827.1

    1996

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 1

    701515

    502426

    283043

    133454

    53461

    32869

    32374

    %

    18201992

    Sheet1

    1820701515

    1870502426

    1913283043

    1950133454

    196953461

    198032869

    199232374

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 15 50%1986 2000

  • 1234123

  • ex-nihilo

    anchor tenant model

    /

    /

    (Lowe et al. 1998)

  • 1U23 450%56HDI0.9007815

  • = +

  • GDP

    1GDP2GDP3GDP4GDP56

  • 123HDI45

  • = +

  • , GDP, NET SAVING

    GENUINE SAVING

    GDP

  • SD = SDSD

  • %

    %

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    7

    9

    10

    2

    6

    1

    5

    2

    1

    1

    2

    4.76

    14.29

    2.38

    11.90

    4.76

    2.38

    2.38

    4.76

    47.62 ( 33.33

    20

    21

    23

    25

    26

    27

    28

    29

    2

    1

    1

    2

    2

    2

    1

    3

    4.76

    2.38

    2.38

    4.76

    4.76

    4.76

    2.38

    7.14

    20

    47.62

    42

    14

    33.33

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    8

    9

    10

    8

    15

    6

    6

    1

    2

    2

    2

    1

    13.33

    25.00

    10.00

    10.00

    1.67

    3.33

    3.33

    3.33

    1.67

    71.67 ( 6.67

    20

    25

    26

    27

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1.67

    1.67

    1.67

    1.67

    43

    71.67

    60

    4

    6.67

    3

    4

    5

    6

    1

    2

    1

    1

    4.17

    8.33

    4.17

    4.17

    20.83 ( 66.67

    22

    24

    25

    28

    29

    1

    1

    2

    1

    11

    4.17

    4.17

    8.33

    4.17

    45.83

    5

    20.83

    24

    16

    66.67

    1

    2

    3

    4

    13

    7

    4

    4

    41.94

    22.58

    12.90

    12.90

    90.32 ( 3.23

    20

    1

    3.23

    28

    90.32

    31

    1

    3.23

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    16

    15

    4

    1

    2

    1

    2

    1

    1

    1

    31.37

    29.41

    7.84

    1.96

    3.92

    1.96

    3.92

    1.96

    1.96

    1.96

    86.27 ( 5.88

    29

    30

    1

    2

    1.96

    3.92

    44

    86.27

    51

    3

    5.88

  • 1

    43.2332.43

    57.816.25

    18.1854.54

    92.682.44

    70.2710.81

    Sheet1

    43.2332.43

    57.816.25

    18.1854.54

    92.682.44

    70.2710.81

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 1

    45.9516.22

    82.816.25

    48.4818.18

    60.9812.2

    5012.16

    Sheet1

    45.9516.22

    82.816.25

    48.4818.18

    60.9812.2

    5012.16

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 2

    8.1159.46

    3.1385.94

    18.1836.36

    4.8870.73

    25.6839.19

    Sheet1

    8.1159.46

    3.1385.94

    18.1836.36

    4.8870.73

    25.6839.19

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

  • (ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT)

  • 1(ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT) EF

  • 2 EF,A A(i) = (P+ I - E) / (Y*N) (i=1,2,3,4)(equivalent factor)wcarry capacity of region,Y)

  • 10.3/6.0/3.8/=2.8/1997=2.3/=0.5/

  • 20%

  • MOFFATT1Z = S/Y - dM/Y - dN/Y Z S Y dM dN

  • MOFFATT2ZZZ

  • GDP

  • GDP

  • GDP201985GDP1993GDP

  • GDP

  • GDP

    GDP = (GDP) - () - ()

  • 1971 1972 1973198919901995 1996 1996Wackernagel 1997Constanza 1998

  • 19401968GDP

  • GDP1973GDP8.55.8

  • 198919711984GDP7.1GDP4.8

  • 19501996GDP70%

  • 2000

  • 1985--200015GDP9.5%100%()

    15,78.2%21.8%GDP7.4%.2.1

  • GDP2070

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