Вторая волна не состоялась… а рождалась она в 199 1

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199 1. : . , CIIA 2 8 2011 - -. . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p> 1991 , CIIA 28 2011 - -</p><p>28 2011*: </p></li><li><p> , 2011 : , 2012 2011 </p><p> , 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 2- 2010: bailout- , 2011:15 - ( )21 , 21% . EFSF 440 -&gt; 780 ., 13 2 10 - Dexia , 27- </p><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p> : 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> Dexia: 1 104 ~1% : Dexia passed EU stress test with 10.4% CT1 in adverse scenario; CEO says today capital ratio is &gt;12%28 2011*</p></li><li><p> , </p><p> , </p><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p>Gambling others people money : = </p><p> Capital/RWA &gt; x%Basel II: - ? - : , </p><p> , SPV/Conduits ( ) * 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>How much skin is in the game? ( )</p><p> tangible common equity ratio </p><p>IFRS , US GAAP, </p><p> , ?28 2011*</p></li><li><p>Basel III ommon equityTier 1Total CapitalCapital conservation buffer common equity Tier 1 (trading book) </p><p>Leverage ratio</p><p> - </p><p> () Bail-in debt * bis.org, The Basel III Capital Framework: a decisive breakthrough, 22 2010, Herv Hannoun 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> * bis.org, The Basel III Capital Framework: a decisive breakthrough, 22 2010, Herv Hannoun 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 7- tangible common equity!* bis.org, The Basel III Capital Framework: a decisive breakthrough, 22 2010, Herv Hannoun 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>21 14 </p><p> , , </p><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> : 106 . 2- 50%+,: / 120% 2020 ., CDS (?) EFSF PIIGS 3.2 . too big to save </p><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 1 . EFSF, 780 . ( ) 160 . , , ( .) </p><p> (credit enhancement) ( ) EFSF, 20-25% SIV, 20-25% EFSF, , () SWF28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 2012 </p><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011* 2010 41% 10.3% . 2000-2010 11 . (76-&gt;87) 39% (4.3-&gt;11)</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 23.45*(1+28.5%)/(1+3.3%)=29.1728 2011*</p></li><li><p>: $111/ 28.6/28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 2000- , , - 2000-200828 2011*</p></li><li><p> -- (exch_rate ~ pf/pd) , current account (. )28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>Current account ( )</p></li><li><p>-28 2011*EURUSD Spot 1.42PPP Estimate 1.24Spread 0.18 : 2007 ( ) 2008 1.6 ./ 23 ./</p><p> Lehman , ( )</p><p>: 1) 2) , - 1.6 ( )</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 2000 - ~12 . .28 2011* = urrent Accout + Capital Account = 0</p><p>(Export Import) + NIRA = - (Private KA + Official KA)</p></li><li><p> : $10.2 .28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011* http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2011/10/back-to-the-future-revisiting-the-european-crisis.html</p></li><li><p> : S = I, S = I + BD : S = I. + BD + NX NX = Reserves + I. 28 2011* </p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011*http://kantooseconomics.com/2011/04/03/is-germany-competitive-is-norway/ 2002-2009 .</p></li><li><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011*http://kantooseconomics.com/2011/04/03/is-germany-competitive-is-norway/ - 2000- </p><p> (, , )</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p> ( ) 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> : 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011* </p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011* </p></li><li><p>28 2011* 1980 </p></li><li><p>28 2011* ( )</p></li><li><p> + $14 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011* </p></li><li><p> 28 2011*</p></li><li><p> - , 28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011* </p></li><li><p>28 2011*</p></li><li><p>28 2011* </p></li></ul>