Налогово-бюджетная политика и экономический рост: уроки для Восточной Европы и Центральной Азии

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    Chart1

    1.9566666667-4.2-7.5234737983-3.97-3.6

    -10.6333333333-11.06-15.2641321349-6.4675-9.5865

    -25-2.76-8.3129990562-9.835-24.5375

    -11.93333333330.36-1.1699111732-9.93-13.9131151409

    -3.06666666674.46110605663.8523924101-14.9575-14.7606448541

    2.34.9886990757.707574025-8.6375-3.7404777356

    4.34.272454473216.0474687095-2.5851.1818128023

    8.83.96964996443.80669226922.8779353423.3561949055

    5.46666666673.31846367624.6331273871-0.18599655224.0127981665

    0.63333333333.21819066454.09653533853.07500212924.8008495976

    6.23333333333.7972812384.67271976727.8757.1473340529

    6.96666666672.88045362263.78209458478.1258.799014701

    6.83333333332.92292312614.13621288256.1758.25

    8.13333333333.484.27378359068.310.1753719296

    7.76666666674.946.08289665389.9759.5375

    9.14.54.72515394636.99.8120117136

    , %

    -

    Baltics

    EU5 Central Europe

    SEE

    Middle Income CIS

    Low Income CIS

    Sheet1

    REAL GDP GROWTH

    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    ECA Region-3.4-10.2-13.8-7.0-5.80.85.14.33.53.35.95.65.86.97.77.0

    Baltics2.0-10.6-25.0-11.9-3.12.34.38.85.50.66.27.06.88.17.89.1

    EU5 Central Europe-4.2-11.1-2.80.44.55.04.34.03.33.23.82.92.93.54.94.5

    EU 8-1.9-10.9-11.1-4.31.64.04.35.84.12.24.74.44.45.26.06.2

    Czech Republic-2.4-11.6-0.50.12.25.94.2-0.7-1.11.23.92.61.53.24.76.0

    Estonia-6.5-13.6-21.6-8.2-1.64.54.411.14.40.37.96.57.26.77.89.6

    Hungary-3.5-11.9-3.1-0.62.91.51.34.64.94.25.24.33.83.44.64.1

    Latvia2.9-12.6-32.1-11.42.2-0.93.88.34.73.36.98.06.57.28.510.2

    Lithuania9.5-5.7-21.3-16.2-9.83.34.77.07.3-1.73.96.46.810.57.07.5

    Poland-7.2-7.02.04.35.26.86.06.84.84.14.01.01.43.85.33.4

    Slovak Republic-0.4-15.9-6.7-3.76.25.86.14.64.21.52.03.84.64.55.55.1

    Slovenia-7.5-8.9-5.51.75.84.93.74.53.85.13.92.73.32.54.63.9

    SEE-7.5-15.3-8.3-1.23.97.716.03.84.64.14.73.84.14.36.14.7

    Albania-10.0-27.7-7.29.69.48.99.1-10.312.710.17.37.02.95.75.95.5

    Bosnia and Herzegovina..........20.885.636.610.09.95.54.35.34.06.05.0

    Bulgaria-9.1-8.5-7.3-1.51.82.9-9.4-5.64.02.35.44.14.94.55.75.5

    Croatia-5.4-21.1-11.7-8.05.96.85.96.82.5-0.92.94.45.65.33.84.3

    FYR Macedonia-7.5-6.2-6.6-7.5-1.8-1.11.21.43.44.34.5-4.50.92.84.14.0

    Romania 3/-5.6-12.9-8.81.53.98.03.9-6.1-4.8-1.22.15.75.15.28.34.1

    Serbia and Montenegro 4/....................5.05.54.32.48.84.7

    Middle Income CIS-4.0-6.5-9.8-9.9-15.0-8.6-2.62.9-0.23.17.98.16.28.310.06.9

    Belarus-1.9-1.2-9.6-7.6-11.7-10.12.811.48.43.45.84.75.07.011.09.2

    Kazakhstan-4.6-11.0-5.3-9.2-12.6-8.20.51.7-1.92.79.813.59.89.39.69.4

    Russia-3.0-5.0-14.5-8.7-12.6-4.1-3.61.4-5.36.410.05.14.77.37.26.4

    Ukraine-6.4-8.7-9.9-14.2-22.9-12.2-10.0-3.0-1.9-0.25.99.25.29.612.12.6

    Low Income CIS-3.6-9.6-24.5-13.9-14.8-3.71.23.44.04.87.18.88.310.29.59.8

    Armenia-8.5-11.7-41.8-8.85.46.95.93.37.33.36.09.613.214.010.113.9

    Azerbaijan-11.7-0.7-22.6-23.1-19.7-11.81.35.810.07.411.19.910.611.210.226.4

    Georgia-11.1-28.1-43.4-39.4-11.42.410.510.62.93.01.94.75.511.16.28.5

    Kyrgyz Republic3.2-7.9-13.9-15.5-20.1-5.47.19.92.13.75.45.30.07.07.0-0.6

    Moldova 5/-2.4-16.0-29.1-1.2-30.9-1.4-5.91.7-6.5-3.42.16.17.86.67.37.0

    Tajikistan-0.6-7.1-29.0-11.0-18.9-12.5-4.41.75.33.78.310.29.110.210.66.7

    Turkmenistan 6/0.7-4.7-5.3-10.0-17.3-7.2-6.7-11.36.716.518.620.415.817.117.29.6

    Uzbekistan 7/1.6-0.5-11.2-2.3-5.2-0.91.75.24.34.33.84.24.04.27.77.0

    Turkey

    Turkey9.30.96.08.0-5.57.27.07.53.1-4.77.4-7.57.95.88.97.4

    Sources: National authorities, IMF and ECSPE Country teams' estimates/projections.

    wb172772:projected

    wb277168:varies from 5.5 to 7%

    wb251207:imf

    wb251207:eiu

    Andriy Storozhuk:According to official statistics. Since 2001 these apear increasingly overstated. In 2001 alternative estimates indicate the real GDP growth of around half the official rate and in 2002-03 -- real GDP growth of around 8 percent.

    chart

    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    Baltics1.9566666667-10.6333333333-25-11.9333333333-3.06666666672.34.38.85.46666666670.63333333336.23333333336.96666666676.83333333338.13333333337.76666666679.1

    EU5 Central Europe-4.2-11.06-2.760.364.46110605664.9886990754.27245447323.96964996443.31846367623.21819066453.7972812382.88045362262.92292312613.484.944.5

    SEE-7.5-15.3-8.3-1.23.97.716.03.84.64.14.73.84.14.36.14.7

    Middle Income CIS-3.97-6.4675-9.835-9.93-14.9575-8.6375-2.5852.877935342-0.18599655223.07500212927.8758.1256.1758.39.9756.9

    Low Income CIS-3.6-9.5865-24.5375-13.9131151409-14.7606448541-3.74047773561.18181280233.35619490554.01279816654.80084959767.14733405298.7990147018.2510.17537192969.53759.8120117136

    Turkey9.25515364840.92655437985.98421958558.0422805252-5.45544048837.18988219067.00603416367.52917462593.0918660322-4.70894661347.4-7.57.94110479375.79441947078.93125245057.4

    chart

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    Annual real GDP growth, in %

    SE Europe

    Middle income CIS

    Low income CIS

    EU3 Baltics

    EU5 Central Europe

    Baltics

    EU5 Central Europe

    SEE

    Middle Income CIS

    Low Income CIS

    Sheet3

    Sheet4

    Sheet5

    Sheet6

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    More so in the CIS and the Baltics; less so in EE and SEE.And governments in comparator high-growth countries are particularly small.