Το αύριο της Ελλάδας

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Επιπτώσεις της κλιματικής αλλαγής στην Ελλάδα κατά το άμεσο μέλλον

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  • WWF . :

    WWF , : , , 2009.

  • 06

    09

    11

    21

    33

    43

    51

    55

    European Climate Foundation.

    , WWF .. , .. ,

    WWF , , , , , , , . .

  • 4

    1: . 12

    1: . 12

    1: 35C

    1961-1990 2021-2050, . 13

    2: (Tmin> 20C)

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 14

    3:

    , 2021-2050 1961-1990

    . 15

    4:

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 16

    5: ,

    2021-2050 1961-1990, . 18

    2: 19

    3: 21

    6: (Tmax>35C)

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 22-23

    7: (Tmin>20C)

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 24-25

    8: (Tmax>25C)

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 26-27

    9:

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 27-28

    10:

    2021-2050 1961-1990 . 29-30

    4: 31

    5.

    . 33

  • 5 11: ( )

    2021-2050 1961-1990,

    . 34

    12:

    2021-2050 1961-1990

    . 35

    13:

    35oC 2021-2050 1961-1990

    . 36

    14:

    (Tmn

  • 6

    WWF (.. , , ), , , , 1 . , . : , , , , , . ,

    . WWF 33% , . 2007 (IPCC) 50 . IPCC 6C , 0,74C . 10.000 . , . . Stern2, , 3 , 120 . , 20% , . , 250 3. . , , 2 C, - . 2C,

    M

    ari

    os

    VO

    NTA

    S /

    WW

    F G

    ree

    ce

  • 7 350-400 (ppm) (CO

    2eq)4.

    2 . , CO2eq 475 ppm 64% , 550 ppm, ( 82% ) 2C. CO

    2

    2006 382 ppm 400 ppm CO

    2eq ,

    , 10 . ; 10 , , 80-95% 2050 ( 1990). 2020 40%. , . . , , . ,

    , . , , . . , , .

    WWF

    1. (CO2), , , .

    2. Stern review on the economics of climate change, 20063. Christian Aid, Human Tide: the real migration crisis, www.christian-aid.org.uk 4. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007.

  • 8 . 1, . 1, . 1 . 2

    1. , 2. WWF

  • 9 (2021-2050) . , . . .

    10 2001 :

    1. , , .

    2. , .

    3. , .

    4. , , . , .

    , , .

    RACMO2, (KNMI), 0.25 (25 ). ENSEMBLES (www.ensembles-eu.org), , . 30 1961-1990 , 2021-2050 15 IPCC. , (2021-2050) (1961-1990).

    5. 2000, , (1 , 1 , 2 2 ). , , . 4 . 40 , , . . 1 , . , , . 1 1, ( ). 1 : http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.htm

  • 10

    G

    eo

    rge

    VE

    LL

    IDIS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

  • 11

    . . , , , . - . , , . : , , - . , , . . , . . , (

    , ), , . , . , . , ( ) . , . ( ), -- ( , ). , ( 1)

    2

    1

    3

    5

    6

    9

    4

    108

    7

    -

    49

    6

    10

    1

    2

    5

    78 3

  • 12

    , , // . , , . 1.

    1.

    () 789.166

    () 385.406

    171.616

    142.112

    132.779

    85.001

    75.550

    63.572

    62.452

    61.373

    : , 2001

    1, . (1961-1990) (2021-2050) . . 1, , 35 , . , , 35 . , , , 20

    1:

  • 13

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    1: 35 C 1961-1990 2021-2050, .

    ( 1961-1990). , , 15 , , (10 ). , , .

  • 14

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.3

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.3

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    2: (Tmin> 20 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

    . 20 . ( > 35oC) . 2 . . . , , , , ( ). 20 , .

  • 15

    , (flash floods) . 3 . , ( ) . , , . 3 . , , , , . , , . 20%, 15%. 10%.

    M - %

    -46.24 -33.53 -20.83 -8.12 4.59 17.29 30.00

    M - %

    -46.24 -34.37 -22.49 -10.62 1.25 13.13 25.00

    M - %

    -46.24 -34.37 -22.49 -10.62 1.25 13.13 25.00

    M - %

    -46.24 -33.5 3 -20.83 -8.12 4.59 17.29 30.00

    M - %

    -46.24 -31.87 -17.4 9 -3.12 11.25 25.63 40.00

    3: , 2021-2050 1961-1990

  • 16

    . , . 4 . 5C (22C). . , , , 15 , 10 , , , , . 5 .

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    4: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

  • 17

    M

    ario

    s V

    ON

    TAS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

  • 18

    . 5 . . 15 .

    (HDD>5)

    M -

    -37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07

    (HDD>5)

    M -

    -37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07

    (HDD>5)

    M -

    -37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07

    (HDD>5)

    M -

    -37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07

    (HDD>5)

    M -

    -37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07

    5: , 2021-2050 1961-1990, .

  • 19

    2. (: , : )

    (%) () ()

    () 10-15 30 10 10 15

    () 15-20 30 10 15 15

    15-20 30 - 10 15

  • 20

    M

    ich

    alis

    BIN

    IHA

    KIS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

  • 21

    , , , . , , . , , . , . 2030. . , . , .

    , , , , . 3.

    3.

    6

    1 120.768

    2 63.749

    3 63.484

    4 59.882

    5 50.500

    6 46.182

    7 34.452

    8 29.329

    9 29.192

    10 27.629

    3, , . (2021-2050) (1961-1990). .

    6. , . , . .

    2

    1

    3

    5

    6

    9

    4

    108

    7

    -

    49

    6

    10

    1

    2

    5

    78 3

  • 22

    6, 35 , . . , 15 35C, 10-15 . ( ) 10 . . , . 5 10 , , . . , .

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

  • 23

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    M

    ich

    alis

    BIN

    IHA

    KIS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

    6: (Tmax>35 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

  • 24

    , 20oC . , . 7 .

    (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.3

    (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

  • 25

    , , . , . , .

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    A (min > 20oC)

    M -

    0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33

    7: (Tmin>20 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

    D

    imit

    ris

    KA

    RA

    VE

    LL

    AS

    / W

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    ece

  • 26

    . (Tmax) 25oC. , (, ). 8 . 20 2050 . 30 (. ) . 1 .

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

  • 27

    . 9 . , . , 15 10 , . 5 , , , . , .

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

    (Tmax > 25oC)

    M -

    1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03

    (CDD > 5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD > 5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    8: (Tmax>25 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

  • 28

    (CDD > 5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD > 5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    9: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

    (CDD>5)

    M -

    -0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00

  • 29

    10 , , . 10 , , , , , . 15 , (5-10 ).

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.55 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

  • 30

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    10: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

    D

    imitr

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    AR

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    ELL

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    / W

    WF

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  • 31

    4. (: , : )

    . . . () ()

    5-10 30-40 20-30 10 5-10

    15 30 20-30 15 10

    10-15 30 20-30 10 10

    10 30 20-30 10 5

    - 30 25 5-10 -

    5-10 30 20-25 10 5

    10 30-40 30 10 5

    10 30 30 10 5

    10 30 20 10 15

    5 30 25 5-10 -

    D

    imitr

    is K

    AR

    AV

    ELL

    AS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

  • 32

    G

    iorg

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    TSA

    DO

    RA

    KIS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

  • 33

    , , 5 . , . . . , , . , - , ( ) ( , , ).

    1. 79,182

    2. 71,635

    3. 53,236

    4. 50,459

    5. 48,662

    6. 47,561

    7. 44,710

    8. 43,249

    9. 42,809

    10. 41,166

    5. .

    , . (2021-2050) (1961-1990) . , ( 11) , 1mm .

    2

    1

    3

    5

    6

    9

    4

    108

    7

    -

    49

    6

    10

    1

    2

    5

    78 3

  • 34

    11 . , 10 , (, , , ). 10 , , 15-20 . , , 25 .

    (

  • 35

    12 , ( , , ). . , , , , 20 . 15 , 10 : , , , .

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    A (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    A (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    (FWI > 30)

    M -

    -4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77

    12: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

  • 36

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    (max > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    13: 35 C 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

    (Tmax > 35oC)

    M -

    -0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93

    13 35oC, . . , 20 . 15 .

  • 37

    (min

  • 38

    , 15 16 . . , , . , .

    A

    M - %

    -48.80 -38.17 -27.54 -16.90 -6.27 4.37 15.00

    A

    M - %

    -48.80 -40.67 -32.54 -24.40 -16.27 -8.13 0.00

    A

    M - %

    -48.80 -39.84 -30.87 -21.90 -12.93 -3.97 5.00

    A

    M - %

    -48.80 -40.67 -32.54 -24.40 -16.27 -8.13 0.00

    A

    M - %

    -48.80 -39.84 -30.87 -21.90 -12.93 -3.97 5.00

    15: (%) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

  • 39

    M

    auri

    RA

    UT

    KA

    RI /

    WW

    F -

    Can

    non

  • 40

    15 , 15% , . 5-10%.

    A

    M - %

    -40.93 -29.11 -17.29 -5.47 6.36 18.18 30.00

    A

    M - %

    -40.93 -29.11 -17.29 -5.47 6.36 18.18 30.00

    A

    M - %

    -40.93 -30.78 -20.62 -10.47 -0.31 9.84 20.00

    A

    M - %

    -40.93 -30.78 -20.62 -10.47 -0.31 9.84 20.00

    A

    M - %

    -40.93 -27.45 -13.96 -0.47 13.02 26.51 40.00

    16 . . , 20%, 15%, 10%. , , , .

    ( ), , . .

    16: (%) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .

  • 41

    6. (: , : ) >35 C () () () (%) (%)

    10-20 15 15 - 15 15

    10 10 15 - 5-10 -

    10 10 15 - 5-10 -

    10-15 20 20 10-15 5-10 20

    10 10 15 - 5-10 -

    10 10 15 - 5-10 -

    >25 15 15 - 5-10 20

    15-20 20 20 10-15 15 -

    20 20 15 10-15 5-10 10

    15-20 20 15 15 15 15

    M

    icha

    el G

    UN

    TH

    ER

    / W

    WF

    - C

    anno

    n

  • 42

    G

    eorg

    e V

    ELL

    IDIS

    / W

    WF

    Gre

    ece

  • 43

    . 50.000 700.000 1.000.000 (7-10 . ) , . , 7 , .. 394 , 284,7 , 197,4 152,9 . , . , . , . , , , . . . , . 10 , 7, .

    7.

    / (ha) (1 = 10 )

    - 9.300

    4.900

    , 4.850

    3.988

    3.812

    3.534

    , 3.513

    3.010

    2.862

    2.750

    7, , . (2021-2050) (1961-1990) . .

    7. Dimitrakopoulos A (1994) Analysis of forest fire causes in Greece. Meditteranean Agronomic Institute, Chania

    2

    1

    3

    5

    6

    9

    4

    108

    7

    -

    49

    6

    10

    1

    2

    5

    78 3

  • 44

    17 . . (.. ), .

    17 1oC

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