Становление африканских львов

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  • 201

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    (World Bank, 2011). ,

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  • 7I. /

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  • 8 /II.

    , 2011

    II.

  • 9II. /

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    1960- 1970-

    . 1970- 1980-

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    ,

    1980- , -

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    , .

    1

    15 1 19802010

    . ,

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    0,4%. -

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    , . 1980

    1 . 15 : , , , , , , , , , , , , , - . 2009 62% , 70% , 64% 81% .

    14%

    12

    10

    8

    6

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    2

    0

    1. (1960-2010 )

    : Conference Board Total Economy Database (2011).

    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  • 10 /II.

    , 2011

    63% .

    2,85 , . 1980

    , . -

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    1 , -

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    ) , 2010 -

    , .

    1. 19802010 (, 2005 )

    1980 1990 2000 2010 1980-1990 CAGR

    1990-2000 CAGR

    2000-2010 CAGR

    1980-2010 CAGR

    3,433 6,948 9,531 12,459 7.3% 3.2% 2.7% 4.4%

    622 681 866 1,127 0.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.0%

    2,007 2,082 1,853 2,046 0.4% -1.2% 1.0% 0.1%

    / 545 527 934 / -0.3% 5.9% /

    993 907 1,067 1,469 -0.9% 1.6% 3.2% 1.3%

    1,375 1,421 1,283 1,477 0.3% -1.0% 1.4% 0.2%

    3,729 6,115 9,154 12,270 5.1% 4.1% 3.0% 4.0%

    440 400 506 845 -0.9% 2.4% 5.3% 2.2%

    1,645 1,417 1,469 2,135 -1.5% 0.4% 3.8% 0.9%

    815 726 661 1,044 -1.2% -0.9% 4.7% 0.8%

    1,531 1,478 1,525 1,732 -0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4%

    8,763 7,975 7,641 9,476 -0.9% -0.4% 2.2% 0.3%

    / 860 866 1,286 / 0.1% 4.0% /

    / 563 774 1,141 / 3.2% 4.0% /

    1,532 1,249 1,029 1,401 -2.0% -1.9% 3.1% -0.3%

    -

    1,790 1,617 1,575 2,041 -1.0% -0.3% 2.6% 0.4%

    ,

    5,544 11,383 18,730 27,027 7.5% 5.1% 3.7% 5.4%

    4,867 6,607 10,209 13,186 3.1% 4.4% 2.6% 3.4%

    1,323 2,008 2,623 3,880 4.3% 2.7% 4.0% 3.7%

    7,567 7,175 7,909 10,056 -0.5% 1.0% 2.4% 1.0%

    / 12,626 8,613 14,183 / -3.8% 5.1% /

    895 1,244 1,769 3,240 3.3% 3.6% 6.2% 4.4%

    524 1,101 2,667 6,810 7.7% 9.3% 9.8% 8.9%

    : World Development Indicators ( ) (2011).

  • 11II. /

    , 2011

    , -

    , , o -

    .

    2,6%,

    , . -

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    1% 1,4%.

    5% . 1 ,

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    2. (19802009 )

    1980 1990 2000 2009

    5.1 5.1 4.5 4.2

    15.2 15.2 16.2 /

    9.6 14.5 20.8 /

    / 4.8 5.5 4.0

    8.1 9.8 10.1 6.9

    12.8 11.7 11.6 8.7

    15.8 24.4 23.5 19.4

    / 10.2 12.2 13.6

    / / / /

    15.3 18.3 7.0 6.4

    13.5 15.3 14.7 12.8

    21.6 23.6 19.0 15.2

    / 9.3 9.4 9.5

    4.3 5.7 7.6 8.0

    18.3 36.1 11.4 9.6

    16.6 17.6 14.9 12.7

    ,

    24.4 27.3 28.3 27.7

    21.6 24.2 30.9 25.5

    13.0 20.7 27.7 27.4

    33.5 / 17.2 15.8

    -

    / / / 15.0

    16.7 16.7 15.6 14.8

    40.2 32.7 32.1 33.9

    : World Development Indicators (2011).

  • 12 /II.

    , 2011

    -

    . 1980-

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    . 2

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    19802009 .

    16,6% .

    , 2009 -

    12,7%. : ,

    3. (/)1980 1990 2000 2009 1980-2009 CAGR

    237.2 265.3 130.0 464.8 2.3%

    569.8 600.2 859.0 1,035.1 2.1%

    864.3 1,241.4 1,763.5 1,573.9 2.1%

    / / 1,116.3 1,651.7 /

    717.7 989.2 1,309.1 1,659.8 2.9%

    1,241.7 1,561.7 1,374.6 1,204.1 -0.1%

    2,454.5 4,192.6 8,900.0 7,894.7 4.1%

    595.6 473.9 868.0 845.9 1.2%

    1,086.9 1,147.9 1,171.4 1,598.4 1.3%

    1,211.8 1,042.6 848.3 1,097.2 -0.3%

    547.3 795.0 879.3 1,134.5 2.5%

    2,017.2 1,876.6 2,758.6 4,395.2 2.7%

    1,020.2 1,506.2 1,439.2 1,224.0 0.6%

    1,491.0 1,497.6 1,539.3 1,539.4 0.1%

    1,567.4 1,352.0 1,682.2 2,068.3 1.0%

    1,043.6 1,032.9 1,131.0 1,301.8 0.8%

    ,

    4,055.8 5,852.9 6,435.7 7,072.8 1.9%

    2,835.8 2,740.3 3,039.5 3,750.4 1.0%

    2,865.6 3,800.2 4,026.3 4,812.6 1.8%

    1,575.7 1,755.0 2,660.6 3,525.5 2.8%

    -

    / / 1,563.3 2,279.2 /

    1,350.0 1,891.2 2,294.1 2,471.0 2.1%

    2,948.7 4,322.7 4,756.3 5,459.5 2.1%

    : World Development Indicators (2011).

  • 13II. /

    , 2011

    25%

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    ( . , 2008 )

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    2000 2008 3,368.8 4,825.8 70% 222% -192% 4.5%

    1995 2005 197.7 329.4 83% 27% -10% 5.1%

    1995 2006 1,944.6 3,399.9 89% 26% -15% 5.1%

    1997 2008 710.7 1,595.1 67% 40% -7% 7.3%

    1996 2008 3,215.2 4,029.9 71% 43% -14% 1.9%

    1997 2008 2,398.1 4,630.0 81% 23% -4% 6.0%

    1993 2008 2,034.1 2,086.8 -47% 296% -149% 0.2%

    2000 2008 350.1 2,332.1 11% 90% -1% 23.7%

    1996 2008 14,869.8 79,574.7 95% 6% 0% 14.0%

    1996 2008 12.7 346.1 75% 25% 0% 27.5%

    1996 2008 392.5 1,776.3 53% 51% -3% 12.6%

    1992 2008 17,121.0 73,102.2 58% 43% -2% 9.1%

    1997 2007 745.6 1,962.6 53% 49% -1% 9.7%

    1994 2008 143.1 1,338.1 33% 68% -1% 16.0%

    1995 2008 1,392.5 5,070.8 40% 65% -4% 9.9%

    : Easterly and Reshef (2010).

  • 14 /II.

    , 2011

    ,

    -

    (Depetris Chauvin et al, 2011).

    3

    19802009 .

    0,8% , , -

    .

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    5.

    (% )

    2000 2009 1980 1990 2000 2009

    0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03 / / 89.56 77.97

    0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.77 / 18.45 12.10

    0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 3.76 8.52 3.26 /

    0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 / / 9.78 8.65

    0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.93 / 14.75 /

    0.06 0.06 0.03 0.04 12.13 29.25 20.79 36.60

    0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 / 65.82 80.79 64.60

    0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 / / 6.67 11.66

    0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 / / 0.21 3.59

    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 / / / 19.35

    0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 15.08 22.51 26.94 41.28

    0.80 0.55 0.46 0.35 18.20 / 53.85 47.48

    0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 14.15 / 19.63 24.61

    0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 / / 3.11 /

    0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 / / 10.74 8.43

    ,

    0.71 1.19 2.58 3.78 89.55 93.52 90.75 89.59

    0.53 0.86 1.41 1.27 18.75 53.78 80.43 69.91

    1.33 0.88 0.85 0.96 2.29 35.45 57.12 40.58

    0.68 0.81 0.81 0.92 37.21 51.92 58.43 39.47

    -

    0.00 3.43 1.43 1.67 / / 23.59 17.21

    0.47 0.47 0.76 1.65 58.64 70.69 77.84 66.82

    1.98 1.57 3.50 9.89 / 71.58 88.22 93.57

    : World Development Indicators (2011).

  • 15II. /

    , 2011

    6.

    1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

    / / 91.44 87.43

    83.39 / 75.04 92.60

    87.44 80.32 78.95 77.80

    / / 86.89 76.04 /

    / / 74.89 /

    70.95 52.41 61.43 46.26 -

    84.70 71.75 69.73 55.76 ,

    / / 73.57 80.17 / / -, , , , ..

    / / 99.80 92.15 / /

    / / / 83.08 / / / -

    62.35 61.02 64.82 58.88

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    / / 34.59 41.17 / / -, --

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    / / 64.90 38.75 /

    / / 76.56 87.36 / /

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    23.71 27.34 38.55 41.70 , , - ..

    70.10 43.73 50.64 40.57 -

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    84.52 55.16 30.80 43.38

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  • 16 /II.

    , 2011

    / 26.48 22.61 39.93 /

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    / / 65.73 73.78 / /

    28.41 30.49 31.58 38.18 -

    / 22.76 20.84 27.45 / -

    -

    : Comtrade, , 2, 3

    , , ,

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