ЭКОНОМИКО-СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ИННОВАЦИОННОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ОРЛОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

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<ul><li><p> 5(12) </p><p>109 </p><p> 338.3:001.895:519.2 (470.319) </p><p>.. , ! "#$% &amp;"$'% &amp;""'% $" </p><p>.. , ! "#$% &amp;"$'% $" </p><p>- </p><p> - . , ! " . </p><p> . </p><p> The article describes the results of economic and statistical analysis of influence of separate elements of innovative capacity of the Orel region on the dynamics of the level of its general economic development. The regressive model formally reflecting this relationship is presented. The strategic perspectives of development of the Orel region in the context of dynamics of separate elements of innovative capacity are defined. </p><p> : , , , ! , - . </p><p> Key words: innovative development, innovative capacity of the region, gross regional product, formal estimation of elements of innovative capacity, economic and statistic modeling. </p><p> (# )#, $ %, $ ((#)"% #"" () $*&amp; "+$). , ")" $ "'' ,-.) "+#' $("' $*&amp; "+$) "&amp;$ , (" $ ,#/0$ #$ #+ ,% )$' "'' $+-% (,% "+#' """% 0% "' $"0$$. ,$#. ("+$$-,#-$.1 ("*$ ,"-"% "". ( #/' )$#)) "" $(" 2"#/% -% * $*' ("*$ $ " "&amp; "&amp;. !# &amp;, (") $ $ 2 &amp;, $*) )#// #.,% ("+$$% ' ("). +$ ( "+$ 3 $*&amp; (*# *#,"+ ""$/ +$/ ,1&amp; "+$) "/% ("+$$% ' &amp; (#&amp; )$#). " "+", &amp;"$% (# $ ,# "+$) ("#% , - #) "+", *#$' $*' ("$ #$) "+*) % $)+ $(# ("&amp;% "", (+$#) #/ ("#/ ,# $' ( "0) (",# $ +/ ("' (""' " 2""$$0) *%. #-$0%) 1 $" </p><p>" $ 1$ ,#/0 #$ ("#% $*&amp; (*#. ', (""-$)/ ) ") ', +#-' $ $ ", 4 #) .. [6, . 17], $ $ ' #$) ( $*' (*# #' (/ #/ $+-/ +) $0$, 1$#) $*%, &amp;$/ $(")/ $$$) #) (#.1&amp; 22$&amp; (#/+$) $ ("+$$ ("*. " #) *#% "+&amp;") </p><p>#/' *#/' (, 2"".1 $*'% (*# "&amp;, ' *#,"+' ""$/ &amp; $(/ " #.1 #$: </p><p> ', &amp;"".1 $0$ (-#$#/ "&amp;+* "&amp;, +)' 2#/' #$) ("#' "+",); </p><p> ', (#/+.1 $0$ $ $% ("+$$% )#/ (("(") "&amp;+* "#/&amp; " "&amp;, $ (").1 $0$ $ $% )#/); </p><p> ', $'(#).1 "#/ ("$ - "+", $0$ (-("$$' 0) "&amp;+*, (,$.1 (" $0$ #$#/ "&amp;+*% $ "#/'% " "&amp;). "&amp;% *#/. ,#+* </p><p>$*&amp; (*# "&amp;, 0 $+), )$#)) $# ,#&amp;)) "% """, ( $ $ "+#/$&amp; 2" (#/+$) $*&amp; (*# "#$% ,# ,'# ("# % "% (+#/, $#$% "/'% (" () &amp; . #) 2"#/&amp; -&amp; #+ $+%$) #/' 2"$ $*&amp; (*# "#$% ,# 3 (y) ,'# ,"' #.1 (""', .1 #$. * '$' "&amp; "&amp;: </p><p>1. 5# "&amp;+*%, $'(#).1 ' #$) "+", (x1); </p><p>2. 5#/ ("#, +)&amp; ' #$) "+", (x2); </p><p>3. 6"' ' #$) ("' "+", (x3); </p><p>4. 5# $'' ($ (x4); 5. 6"' #&amp; $* (x5); 6. 5# (#/+' $ ("+$$ </p><p>$*' #&amp;% (x6). </p></li><li><p> 5(12) </p><p>110 </p><p>"$' " 2" ,'# $#.' $ ("$"#/. #/ $ # &amp;, (+$#). (" (",#./ "#$% ,# $ +$ &amp;$ "&amp; 1$#. $*% )#/. $ (# 2" "". &amp;$/ ("(")% "&amp;+*% ,# (#/+$/ $ $% )#/ $*' "+",, )$#)) $% ("% #+ $ ("* (") &amp;2"% "&amp;"% #. 5$"'% 2" ,'# ,$# $ . "&amp;". #/ $ $ (#).1&amp; 2"""&amp; ("", $)+'$.1&amp; '% "#/-("+$$'% " "#$% ,#. (#/+) "#/' +) $ </p><p>$'0+' #$ $*&amp; (*# "#$% ,# &amp; + (" 2000 ( 2011 &amp;&amp;. [3], ,",$ $ ("#% % ("&amp;" EViews, ' (## ' ("$' $ ,#*1. </p><p>,#* 1 "$' 22*' -$% "&amp;", ('$.1 ("* 2""$) </p><p>"#$% ,# ( $+%$ #/' #$ $*&amp; (*# "&amp; </p><p> "' # </p><p>22*' ") 0, </p><p>t- </p><p>F- </p><p>y 161398,3 126564,2 1,2752 0,2920 </p><p>1 -5507,8 2142,3 -2,5711 0,0824 </p><p>2 4,7 21,1 0,2226 0,8381 </p><p>3 186,2 49,2 3,7814 0,0324 </p><p>4 -139,1 166,1 -0,8375 0,4637 </p><p>5 9,5 7,9 1,1933 0,3185 </p><p>6 -14,3 52,5 -0,2720 0,8033 </p><p>22* "* 0,9884 """$'% 22* "* </p><p>0,5652 </p><p>F- 0,0053 </p><p>""% ",- 3,1138 </p><p> ("$ ( (") "&amp;"% # 2""$) ,7 "#$% ,# ( $+%$ #/' #$ $*&amp; (*# ' 1$# ("$" &amp;(+' + $ 22*$ -$% "&amp;" $+)' #) #+ +$' ("'. (#' ' ' - #/ $'$ + ") 22*$ -$% "&amp;" ( "+#/ t- ("") /.): +) 22*$ $ #,* F- 1$ ("$'0. $#'% "$/ + 0,05 ( ("', 2 (#/ ("#, +)&amp; ' #$) "+",), 4 (# $'' ($), 5 (+"' </p><p>#&amp; $*) 6 (# (#/+' $ ("+$$ $*' #&amp;%). ' + 22* "* 0,9884 2"#/ +, +$/ ,7)).1 ("' $ % # $#) (") 98% +$ +$% ("% (). $' + """$&amp; 22* "* 0,5652 +'$ ,/ #/%0% """$ $"0$$ #. (#/+) (0&amp;$' ("*"' ," ,# </p><p>2"$' ("', (0&amp;$&amp; #.) +' ("' + % #, ' (## "$ +$ "#$% ,# #$ $*&amp; (*# "&amp;, .1 #.1% $: </p><p>y = 99956,5 3765,8 1 + 189,5 3; </p><p>,#* 2 22*' -$% "&amp;" +#.#/ ( (") #, #0 ,"+ ('$.1% ("* 2""$) "#$% ,# ( $+%$ #/' #$ </p><p>$*&amp; (*# "&amp; </p><p> "' # </p><p>22*' ") 0, </p><p>t- </p><p>F- </p><p>y 99956,5 10187,9 9,8112 0,0001 </p><p>1 3765,8 440,2 -8,5543 0,0001 </p><p>3 189,5 17,6 10,7941 0,0000 </p><p>22* "* 0,9786 """$'% 22* "* 0,9725 </p><p>F- 0,0001 </p><p>""% ",- 2,0464 </p><p># "$ )$#)) +' $ *#, (#/ -'% + 22*$ -$% "&amp;" $ #/ - +, / ("$'0 $#'% "$/ + $ 5%. " &amp;, 1$'% " """$&amp; 22* "* 0,5652 #/ ( 0,9725 $ % #. &amp;$" , (# "$ ,7)) # 97% ,1% (" "+#/$&amp; ("+ ($ # ). ""% ",-, "$'% 2,0464 ,#+ 2, $#/$ , $ $""#)* $, +, $#) $ #$ $*&amp; (*# ""$&amp; "&amp; $++$. +#/', (#' $ ("* </p><p>"&amp; #+, . $(# #&amp; 2"#/ ,7). , +) (/ $#)) $"&amp; 2"&amp; ("+ "#$% ,#, ,#.) + (# 10 #, $'+$ </p></li><li><p> 5(12) </p><p>111 </p><p>, % "' $ (" + 2000-2011 &amp;&amp;. 1$ $+" "$/ $#2* ( "$, +)' $ 2" ' +'%, "&amp;% , $ (# )#, $ *# ( , ( "#$% ,# $ , $ 2" -+'#/% )#/ ("+0# "+ 0, +1 #$&amp; "" -#&amp; $+-). 5# $'' ($ % $)+ "+#/$' ("+ $ # &amp;, # $ +($' +,") #&amp; $(#$ ) $ "#/'% " "&amp; (#/+.) $ ("% )#/ ("(")% "&amp;+*% "#$% ,#. 6"' #&amp; $*, 1$#)' ("(")) "&amp;+*), $'(. + % # $ # &amp;, &amp; 2", """$) "$/ 2#)*, "+" $'. $",#// (22* $"* &amp; 2" "$ 0,78) #/ ('% "". 5# - (#/+' $ ("+$$ #&amp;% #/ #, &amp; $#) "#$% ,# ("% % + ( ("'% 22* ""#)*, "'% ( (+#) + (" 2000-2011 &amp;&amp;. $#) $&amp; (") 0,07). #) -) "&amp;"-</p><p>$) #/, ,#) ' "$ % $ % "("+$, (+$## #/ #.1 (" ("$' $'$': </p><p>1. 6 (# )/ # ( "#$% ,# ,#.) *) 1$&amp; $+%$) #$ $*&amp; (*# "&amp;, "' $) $ $ ,# $, +)' &amp;"*% $0$, -# 2"$, )1) $ $ ,# ("&amp; (#/+$) "+#/$ -#$#/% ('-""% )#/ $ ("% ",. "&amp; #$ ,#&amp;(# %$/ -*#/&amp; "+$) ,# $ ,#/0% ( ("#)) (/. &amp;$ 1$#. $*% )#/, -# (,/. "#+*. </p><p>2. "*#/ + ("" (" 1 $#/$ , $# # "&amp;+*% $'(#).1 ' #$) "+", , (,$$/ -. "#$% ,#. &amp;$" , $ )1% $" ' ('-"" "&amp;+* ",. 22$. "&amp;% "' 2$' $#-) $*' $#$) $ 2#/. ("#' "+", $&amp; ) "" #/ #&amp; </p><p>(' +", $)+ 1% % 22$/.. (" "+", ("&amp;" $*&amp; "+$) "#$% ,# # / $$, "1 #$ "&amp;+*%, &amp;"".1 $0$, #.#/ ""'% % "+#/ 3 "/3+'% 1", ). ,# $ "&amp;% ("($. </p><p>3. #) ($'0) 22$ ",' #/' #$ $*&amp; (*# "#$% ,# $ "&amp;% ("($ , "+$$/ ', (#/+.1 $0$ $ ("+$$, (" '. - $") % +% ,#+* $*&amp; (*# ""$&amp; "&amp; #- / "0" (" (") &amp; &amp;"$' (,%. </p><p> ! ! 1. 6$, .. $*'% (*# </p><p>$' "&amp;$ / .. 6$, .. !'"*%, .8. "$" // , 2005. 9 10. . 4052. </p><p>2. &amp;, .. % #+ * $*% $ "(, "&amp;$ "$#-&amp; 2"#/&amp; "&amp; / .. &amp; // % #+: ") (", 2004. 9 5. . 1622. </p><p>3. &amp;' . *#/- (+#. 2011: . ,. .: , 2011. 990 . </p><p>4. (, .. * $*% ("$##/ "&amp; $*&amp; ,.--2$&amp; (*# "&amp; .. (, .. // $*, 2007. 9 7. . 64-66. </p><p>5. '$, .. * $*&amp; (*# "&amp;$ [#"'% ""] / .. '$ // 2*#/'% % -"# $") : #/' (",#' " (" - (: http://www.nauteh-journal.ru/index.php/---ep12-02/391-a. </p><p>6. 4 #), .. * $*&amp; (*# "&amp; / .. 4 #) // ("$# ,1$' ., 2007. 9 1. . 17-24. </p></li><li><p>5(38) </p><p> 2012 "# $!"$-% !"# &amp; $!. $!$ 2005 '( )" (* +(!*: ,( !*$ '(! $$ -.(&amp;$ - !+!*$ " &amp;($ /0' % 1$!*$' - !+!$2 # '(! $$/# !' ! $/# )$ *'% $: ! !$ .. (("#/) </p><p>3$ .. (+. ("#)) </p><p>! .. $ .. !&amp;$ .. 2 .. 2! .. $ .. 4'2 .. .. !5 .. + .. +$6 .. - .. /$ .. 20 .. !3! .. !! .. ! .. !!2 .. %! .. ! .. !$ .. %!$! .. /'$ .. ($$. ""/) $! .. ("") </p><p>" "*: 302019, &amp;. "#, </p><p>#. "# , 69. #.: +7 (4862) 45-40-37 : +7 (4862) 45-40-64 </p><p>E-mail: nichgau@yandex.ru % -"#: http://ej.orelsau.ru </p><p>$#/$ "&amp;"* 9 7721514 11.07.2005 &amp;. </p><p> (*# "/&amp; </p><p>&amp; *" ( : #- .. </p><p>% "": .. </p><p> $ ," 10.08.2012 &amp;. ( $ (/ 23.09.2012 &amp;. " 6084/8. !&amp; 2). </p><p>"" %. ,73 21,5 #. (. #. </p><p>"- 300 +. +#/$ "# , 302028, &amp;. "#, ,#/$" ,', 19. </p><p>*+) 9021325 </p><p> 23.02.1999 &amp;. </p><p>:"# "$ ," </p><p>#) (,#*% ' ",, "-.1 $ "- " "*% </p><p>47 </p><p>$3! ! !$ .., ! .. (*) + &amp;"$% ("- &amp;""&amp; " #$) ............................ 2 2! .., -! .. "/) (2"") +)%$ "#$% ,#: ) ("($' "+$).. 10 !5 .., $!$$ .., % .. ' +. $+"$% ' ("$#) ' 2".. 15 $2! .. ) (",#' $*&amp; "+$) ("* $("+$$ $&amp; (# $ .. 21 ' *! .. ""' ("$#) "+$) "' " #/ *(#/' ,"+$% "#$% ,#. 26 4! 3' !# .. #) $(#) $ "+$ #/&amp; +)%$ 33 !$"! .., 3!$ .4. ) * "#+* ""&amp; (*# $#"% "# $ "#$% ,#. 36 ( $ .. ;$) ("/ +"$% "# $ #$) (") $ .. 40 !! .. #/) +",) (#: "#/ $ (",#' (#/+$) $ $"% . 45 ! ! .., 2$$ .. "($' ("$#) ("+$$ (,% ("* "% ("'0#.. 51 !$! .. $' ("$#) ($'0) % 22$ $$$ "#$% ,# 54 26$! .. #.$' ("$#) $" "+$) #-("$&amp; ((# "#$% ,# 59 !$ .., 4$! .., /'$ .., 83$ .. #' 2"' +)%$$) - ("" "+$) &amp;""&amp; " ( ("" "#$% ,#) 66 ."$ .. * 2""$) (#/+$) ("+$$' ""$ $ "#) -$$$ "#$% ,#.. 72 $ .., %! .., !6 .. * )), (#/+$) $("+$$ "#/-% ,+' #/+)%$' "&amp;+*% "#$% ,#.. 78 "! .. #+ )) (#/+$) "$' ""$ # $' ,() #/&amp; +)%$ $#2*"$' " 85 /"! .. #+ 2"$, "-$.1 2""$ + 22$&amp; "&amp;&amp; ("$#) $" ( "+$) 90 !"$ .. +# % 22$ $) "#$' $*% $ "$$ 93 (!+ .. ""' ("$#) *#/-&amp; "+$) #/ """% "#$% ,#.. 100 / .., 0!! .. * 2""$) "+$) "$' ""$ $ #/ +)%$ "#$% ,#.. 105 .., .. -% #+ $*&amp; (*# "#$% ,# 109 $!2 .. (' ("&amp;+"$) # "$' ""$ $ #/% ... 112 7! !$! .. * $'(#) "$#) 2*#/' ,)+% ( ("" #/+)%$' "&amp;+*%).. 114 /$! .., /! .. +$ $*' $ $ ("$# "+#/$/. +)%$' 118 /-!$ 4.. +- $"$) $" $,' -' "$. 123 .. ) ("&amp;+ "+$) (#$$ $ %% "* 126 </p><p>7 $( !3 .., 9 3!$ .. "/ ,#$-$-"#/'% *" $ "* #) $%.. 130 $6$ .., $6$ .. + ,% "2 "$ ("'0#' (#$ !#&amp;"% ,#. 133 )!" .., )!" .. +#/' #$% ",*+ #+% ,# ($+0% 0 $*. 135 9 3!$! .. +) (""$ " "+$) '0* *'(#)-,"%#"$ $ 10-, 20- 30-$ $+" (" "+ "$ ,% "&amp;.. 137 ! .. $' * &amp; "+$) $&amp; $$$.. 140 $# .. ) ("$#) "+$) "' )* "% ,#. 143 : !$ .., ! .. ##/'% " $'("$' "$ (" ,# + $ #$) ("'0#&amp; "-).. 146 .., .. +# ("$" (#/+$) (#/' $1$ (" $#. $ "$. / +" "#. 149 </p><p>$" $! "'$ .. #/ "&amp; (" "+", "&amp;,"&amp;.1 "(")% $ ,.-' "&amp;+*). 151 !&amp;$ .. &amp;2*#/ ("+$$ "- #) 2"" #' +)%$.. 155 !* .., ($ 4.., !"8! .. ("#/ #$ 0 +" #"$"$' $+. 160 ,3$ .., .4. *'% "#/ %$) $'#.#% $ #/*$% 163 "!$ .., &amp;$# .., ! 2$ .. "+#/' &amp;"$) ""' +#% .. 167 </p><p>$1 3!6$$ -5$ .,#. ("2" $ #" #/. 171 </p><p> ! "# , 2012 </p></li></ul>

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