МОДЕЛЬ УСТОЙЧИВОГО ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА

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<ul><li><p> - </p><p>14 CONTROL SC I ENCES 3 2007</p><p> 338(075.8)</p><p>. . </p><p> - </p><p> XX . . - - . - , , . , , - . - - . - , , [1]. 1987 . , . , - , - [1]. , , ( -). (, ), . .</p><p> , , - , - , - .</p><p>1. </p><p> [2, 3] - : . - , - . - -. . , - ( , ), - - . . - , . .; , -, , - .</p><p> , - , , - .</p><p> , - . - - (- ). , , , , , - . , - - </p><p> , - : , . - - .</p></li><li><p> - </p><p>15 3 2007</p><p> . - - . - , . 1.</p><p> Y , I -</p><p> . , - Y + I.</p><p> , , , . Y = Y(t), K = K(t) . .</p><p> . (I ).</p><p> Y = C + I + P, (1)</p><p> C (, ), I , - - I2 I1, . .</p><p>I = I1 + I2; , I = (s1 + s2)Y, I1 = s1Y1, I2 = s2Y2,</p><p> Y2 Y1 </p><p>, , s = s1 + s</p><p>2 -</p><p>; P -, P = s3Y, s3 </p><p>, s = s1 + s2 + s3 -</p><p> C = (1 s)Y.</p><p> t - </p><p>L(t) = L0egt, (2)</p><p> L0 t0, g </p><p> , g m 0. K </p><p> = I mK, K(0) = K0, m = const, (3)</p><p> m , K0 </p><p> .</p><p> - - K</p><p>2 </p><p> K1, . . K = K1 + K2.</p><p> :</p><p> = I1 m1K1, K1(0) = K10, m1 = const,</p><p> = I2 m2K2, K2(0) = K20, m2 = const,</p><p> m1 m2 .</p><p> - ( ). , - -. u , -. </p><p> = Y2 uY + eP, K(0) = K0, (4)</p><p> e ,0 m e m 1, e = 1.</p><p> Y Y = f(K, L, Pr), K, L Pr, Pr , .</p><p>, P = 0 (1)(4) - . , - , Y </p><p> Y = AK L, - , t - [3]. -, - [2]., - - .</p><p>2. </p><p> , - , P &gt; 0 , , . [3],</p><p> Y Y = Y0(K/K0)(L/L0)</p><p>1 , , -</p><p>. 1. , :</p><p>Y ; I ; K</p><p>2 K</p><p>1 -</p><p> ;I1, I</p><p>2, C P </p><p>dKdt-------</p><p>dK1</p><p>dt----------</p><p>dK2</p><p>dt----------</p><p>dK</p><p>dt-----------</p></li><li><p> - </p><p>16 CONTROL SC I ENCES 3 2007</p><p> [3], </p><p>C/L = (1 s)Y/L = E(1 s)s/(1 ),</p><p> E = (Y0/L</p><p>0)(Y</p><p>0/((m + g)K</p><p>0))/(1 ) = const.</p><p> z(s) = (1 s)s /(1 ) = (1 s</p><p>)(s</p><p> s</p><p>3)/(1 ),</p><p> , - so = + s3(1 ).</p><p> so&lt; + s</p><p>3(1 ), dz(s</p><p>)/ds</p><p> &gt; 0, z(s</p><p>)</p><p>, so &gt; + s3(1 ) . -</p><p>, - -. s</p><p>3 = 0,</p><p> so = s, s = </p><p> . s = s s3,</p><p>, </p><p>s = (1 s3), s3 = (1 s/). (5)</p><p> , P &gt; 0 , . - .</p><p> , (4) , -</p><p> -</p><p> - -, K </p><p>eP l Y2 + uY. (6)</p><p> d , u , . (7) es3Y l dY + uY, s3 l (d + u)/e.</p><p>, , . -, , - , - - . , , - - 0,29 ( 20022005 .), e = 1, .</p><p> , , , , - , . (5) (6) .</p><p>3. </p><p> , , : - , - , - .</p><p> - , - .</p><p> - (4) ( -), -. , - , , .</p><p> , - . u K</p><p>0, (4), . </p><p> - ( , ), , - . , , (4) - . , - .</p><p> , . , 1992 . ( ..) 71 200,8, 13 0,00256512 [4]. 2005 ., - (2), 68865,64883, 0,3 %, , -: ( 19901998 -, 1999 . ). , g , .</p><p> - [5], , 1998 2003 . , [5] . [5] .</p><p> - -, -, [4], , </p><p>dK</p><p>dt----------- 0= </p></li><li><p> - </p><p>17 3 2007</p><p>, , [5], :</p><p>Y = 1,09(K/L)0,47(Z/L)64,62L, (7)</p><p>Y = 59,74(K/L)0,53(Z/L)1,1(X/L)0,068L, (8)</p><p> Z , X ( , - ).</p><p> , , , - . [4] (7) (8) 4 2 % . , , - , K</p><p>t = K</p><p>t 1 + 0,67Y</p><p>t 1 0,038K</p><p>t 1 579,27 </p><p> . - 1997 2003 . - 5 % (. ).</p><p> - 9 %. 56 % 45 , . -, - , , . , -</p><p> , 0,04, 15 - , - (. 2). , 0,5 %, - , - 40 2003 .</p><p> - , , - . - , , , , - 0,3 % 4 % .</p><p> - .</p><p> . - - . , .</p><p>1. : . .: , 1989.</p><p>2. . . . .: , 2000. 861 .</p><p>3. . . - . .: , 1997. 224 .</p><p>4. 2004. . . /. ., 2004.</p><p>5. . . - 19922003 . .</p><p>e-mail: lax@tomsk.su</p><p> . . . </p><p>. 2. 4 % </p><p> Y - ( </p><p> ) K </p><p> L</p><p> X</p><p> - , . .</p><p> Y, (8) </p><p>1997 2343,0 13286,0 61,0 51,0 62879 2339,88 2470,3141998 2630,0 14126,0 64,6 175,0 61412 2604,09 2543,5471999 4823,0 14246,0 106,4 823,0 63964 5092,47 4928,3752000 7306,0 16605,0 147,3 1463,0 64327 7025,57 7014,4222001 8944,0 20241,0 199,2 1134,0 65124 8734,18 8672,6152002 10675,0 24431,0 259,6 1144,0 66266 10683,65 9995,5362003 12829,0 30556,0 339,0 1515,0 67152 13074,22 11101,02</p><p>. Y, K, L X . ., 1998 . . . .</p></li></ul>

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