0нарски труд економетрија

  • Published on
    27-Jul-2015

  • View
    463

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript

................................................................................................ 3 1. .................................................................................. ........5 2. .................................... .........10 3. ......................................................11 4. ...............................................................15 5. .................................................................. 17 6. ......................................................................................... 19 7. Conclusion.................................. 21

. , . , . . , , , , , , . , . 2007 2008 . . , 2

. . , . , . , .

3

1.

, . , . , , . , , 2009 . , . , ( ) , . , , , ( ), . 4

, . :

Yi ,

X1 , X2 , X3 .... X

, .

0 ,

1

,

2

,....

,

.

i

. , . , :

,

, :

5

, ,

Yi

X1

,

X2

.

,

, ,

Yi X1,

X2,

:

,

Yi

. . :

0

Yi

;

1

X1

,

X2

2

6

Yi,

X2 ,

X1

.

, , , . Yi, , , :

Yi

Yi. .1 (10000) 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 4 8 1 7 3 3 9 10 6 9 5 7 2 6 3 3 8 11 7 8

1. : 2009 .

1

,

7

X1 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 50

X2 4 8 1 7 3 3 9 10 6 9 60

Y 5 7 2 6 3 3 8 11 7 8 60

d1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 3

d2 -2 2 -5 1 -3 -3 3 4 0 3

dy -1 1 -4 0 -3 -3 2 5 1 2

d1d2 4 -4 5 -1 0 0 0 4 0 9 17

d12 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 9 24

d22 4 4 25 1 9 9 9 16 0 9 86

dy2 1 1 16 0 9 9 4 25 1 4 70

d1dy 2 -2 4 0 0 0 0 5 2 6 17

d2dy 2 2 20 0 9 9 6 20 0 6 74

, 95%,

= 1- 0.95 = 0,05

1=0,1149

2 = 0,8377

0 = 0,3993

2. 8

. , , , . , :

. , . S= 0.93016.

3.

9

, . , , , . , . , 0 1.

:

R2= 0.91347

91.35 % 1 ( ) 2 ( ),

10

8.65% . Y, . .

1)

2)

H0 . H1 .

11

1 2.

b1= 0.27093 b2= 0.10808 b1, t :

t1=0.4241

, t :

t2=7.7507 ),

t1=0.4241< t0.05/2;7=2.3646(

H0 , 0, 1 ( ) Y( ).

t2=7.7507> t0.05/2;7=2.3646( 2,

),

2

( )

Y( ). b2 e . 12

4.

13

. , , . y . . , Y 1 0,

1, 2... .

0 R +1 1, , 0, . , R=0, . , R=1, . :

14

R= 0.955756

Y

1 2 .

Mo

95.57%

1

2

,

4.43% .

5.

15

, , , , , . , . , . :

-1 1. ,

ryx1, ryxj ryx.

1 3 3 4 4 5

2 4 8 1 7 3

Y 5 7 2 6 3

12 9 9 16 16 25

22 16 64 1 49 9 16

Y2 25 49 4 36 9

1Y 15 21 8 24 15

2Y 20 56 2 42 9

1 2 12 24 4 28 15

5 5 6 7 8 50 3 9 10 6 9 60 3 8 11 7 8 60 25 25 36 49 64 274 9 81 100 36 81 446 9 64 121 49 64 430 15 40 66 49 64 317 9 72 110 42 72 434 15 45 60 42 72 317

rx1y= 0.4149 ryx2 = 0.954 r1x2 = 0.3742 ryx12= 0.9342 y 1 .

ryx21= 0.9472 Y 2 .

, ,

17

. , , . , . , , , . , , , . , . ,

.

18

CONCLUSION

From the given calculation of the factors which influence the revenues of a certain automobile company which needs to make an exploration of the market and the direct influence of certain variables which affect the revenues itself, we can conclude that our model has presented clear data that the two variables which we have chosen as main influence factors and from which we needed to define which factors

19

affects the dependant variable more, we have noticed that both of the factors have a very strong influence for the fluctuation of the revenues. Namely, from the coefficient of determination and from the coefficient of correlation we have described that from the both factor, the place of selling has the bigger degree of influence for the revenues. Respectfully, we can conclude that the Macedonia market is very large and proportional, counter most of the statistics which define a big market only in the area of the Capital of the country, Skopje. Also, the coefficient of the costs for propaganda, although having lesser influence, it also suggests a strong link with the revenues. From this, we define that the small percentage of outside factors which influence the revenues, makes our managerial team very competent, because of the fact that the most influential factors of all were chosen to divide the entire and the individual influence.

Altogether, the three factors have a very strong link. The way we have to solve our import of new cars is directly dependant to the place of selling the goods, respectively the auto saloon and together with the moderate costs for propaganda will determine the revenues and affect the calculation and the evaluation of the forthcoming revenues on a short term basis, thus allowing a better rebalance of our companys budget.

20

2. - 3. - , - 4. http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&symbol=NYSE%3A 5. http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/steps/glossary/index.html 21

6. http://www.une.edu.au/WebStat/unit_materials/c4_descriptive_statistics/correl ation_regression.html 7. http://richardbowles.tripod.com/maths/correlation/corr.htm

22