2 slide cac bien so vix mo co ban

  • Published on
    24-Jun-2015

  • View
    870

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript

  • 1. Bi 2 Cc bin s v m c bnI Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP)1 Khi nim2 Phng php o lng3 Cc ch tiu o lng thu nhp khc4 GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t, ch s iu chnhGDP5 GDP v phc li kinh t rng

2. Bi 2 Cc bin s v m c bnII Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)1 Khi nim2 Phng php o lng3 Nhng vn pht sinh khi o lng CPI4 So snh CPI vi ch s iu chnh GDP5 Vn dng CPI vo trong thc tin 3. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)1 Khi nimGDP l tng gi tr th trng ca tt c cc hngha v dch v cui cng c sn xut ra trong mtquc gia ti mt thi k nht nhCc thut ng cn ch :+ gi tr th trng+ ca tt c+ hng ha v dch v+ cui cng+ c sn xut ra+ trong mt quc gia+ ti mt thi k nht nh 4. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)2 Phng php o lngM hnh chu chuyn tin-hng trong nn kinh t gin n 5. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)2 Phng php o lnga Phng php chi tiu (expenditure method)GDP (AE) = C + I + G + X IM = C + I + G + NXTrong :+ C (consumption) l chi tiu ca h gia nh baogm chi tiu cho: hng ha lu bn (durable goods)hng ha khng lu bn (nondurable goods) v dchv (services) 6. + I (investment) l tng u t trong nc ca khuvc t nhn. I bao gm u t ca cc hng(nonresidential investment) cho t bn hin vt mi(nh xng, my mc, cng c) (fixed investment)cng vi hng tn kho (inventory investment) v ut ca h gia nh cho nh mi (residentialinvestment)+ G (government purchases) l chi tiu ca chnh phcho hng ha v dch v. G khng bao gm cc khonchuyn giao thu nhp+ NX (net export) l gi tr xut khu rng. NX bngtng gi tr ca hng ha v dch v xut khu tr itng gi tr hng ha v dch v nhp khu 7. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)2 Phng php o lnga Phng php chi tiu 8. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)2 Phng php o lngb Phng php thu nhp/chi ph (income method)Cc khon thu nhp theo yu t/gi bn phn chia theo chiphDep (khu hao)Te (thu gin thu rng)W (lng)i (tin li) Doanh thu R (tin thu) (GDP)Pr (li nhun ca doanh nghip) GDP (AI) = W + i + R + Pr + Te + DepNh vy 9. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)2 Phng php o lngb Phng php thu nhp 10. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)2 Phng php o lngc Phng php sn xut/gi tr gia tng (production/value added method)- Gi tr gia tng (Value Added, VA) l gi tr snlng hng ha, dch v ca doanh nghip (doanhthu) tr i gi tr ca hng ha trung gian mua t ccdoanh nghip khc (chi ph nguyn vt liu).- Phng php ny c th c dng o lngng gp ca tng ngnh vo GDP GDP = VA cc ngnh => GDP = VAT/thu sutGTGT 11. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)Trang tri trng c VA ca trang tri c phph Doanh nghip chVA ca DN ch bin cGi tr c ph nhnbin c phph Doanh nghip bnGi tr c ph theo gi bn bun sn xutVA ca DN bn bun bunDoanh nghip bn l v nh hng giiGi tr c ph theo gi bn bun thng mi VA ca DN bn l kht Ngi tiu dng Gi tr c ph theo gi bn l Chi tiu cui cng cho c ph (GDP ngnh c phe tnh theo VA) 12. Bi 2 Cc bin s v m c bn 13. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)3 Cc ch tiu o lng thu nhp khcTng sn phm quc dn (Gross National Product-GNP) l tng thu nhp do cng dn ca mt nc to ra.GNP = GDP + NFA trong NFA/NFIA l thu nhp yu t rng t ncngoi (net factor income from abroad) hay chnh lchgia thu nhp c c dn trong nc to ra nc ngoiv thu nhp ca ngi nc ngoi to ra trong nc(ngoi ra ngi ta cn s dng cc thut ng tngng vi GDP l GDI tng thu nhp quc ni, GNP lGNI tng thu nhp quc dn) 14. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)3 Cc ch tiu o lng thu nhp khcC ba trng hp xy ra+ GNP > GDP (NFA > 0): nn kinh t trong ncc nh hng n cc nc khc+ GNP < GDP (NFA < 0): nn kinh t trong ncchu nh hng ca cc nc khc+ GNP = GDP (NFA = 0): cha c kt lun 15. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)3 Cc ch tiu o lng thu nhp khc-Sn phm quc dn rng (Net national product-NNP) bng GNP tr i khu haoNNP = GNP Dep(ngoi ra ngi ta cn s dng thut ng tng ngNNI thu nhp quc dn rng; nu s dng GDP ta cNDP = GDP - Dep)-Thunhp quc dn (National income-NI) bngNNP tr thu gin thu rng. NI = NNP Te 16. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)3 Cc ch tiu o lng thu nhp khc- Thu nhp c nhn (Personal Income PI) lkhon thu nhp m cc h gia nh nhn dc t ccdoanh nghip cho cc dch v yu t v t ccchng trnh tr cp ca chnh ph v phc li v bohim x hi cng vi li tc t tri phiu chnh ph.- Thu nhp kh dng (Disposable Income Yd)bng thu nhp c nhn tr thu thu nhp c nhn vcc khon ph ngoi thu phi np cho chnh ph,vd: l ph giao thng... 17. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)4 GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t v ch s iuchnh GDPa GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t GDP danh ngha (nominal GDP) l gi tr snlng hng ha v dch v tnh theo gi hin hnhhay l tng ca lng hng ha v dch v c snxut ra trong mt nm nhn vi gi ca cc hng hav dch v y trong nm 18. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)4 GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t v ch s iuchnh GDPa GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t GDP thc t (real GDP) l gi tr sn lng hngha v dch v hin hnh ca nn kinh t c tnhtheo mc gi c nh ca 1 nm c chn lm nmc s hay l tng ca lng hng ha v dch vc sn xut ra trong mt nm nhn vi gi c nhca cc hng ha v dch v y trong nm c s (nmgc) 19. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)4 GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t v ch s iuchnh GDPa GDP danh ngha, GDP thc tNgun: Tng cc thng k 20. U.S. Real & Nominal GDP, 1970-2004 12,000 10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 19901995 2000 Nominal GDP (billions of dollars) Real GDP (billions of chained 2000 dollars) 21. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)4 GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t v ch s iuchnh GDPa GDP danh ngha, GDP thc tTc tng trng kinh t 22. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)4 GDP danh ngha, GDP thc t v ch s iuchnh GDPb Ch s iu chnh GDP (Deflator GDP - DGDP)Ngun: Tng cc thng k 23. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)5 GDP v phc li kinh t rng (NEW - net economicwelfare)Nhng thiu st ca GDP khi o lng tng sn lng- Sn xut t cung t cp ca h gia nh- Nn kinh t ngm: c 3 l do c nhn v cc hngkhng cng khai hot ng mua bn hng ha v dchv ca mnh: hng ha v dch v bt hp php; trnh trthu cho thu nhp m h nhn c; trnh nhng quynh ca chnh ph. 24. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)5 GDP v phc li kinh t rngNhng thiu st ca GDP khi o lng mc sng hayphc li x hi (mt cch tng th)- Gi tr ca ngh ngi cha a vo trong tnh ton GDP- GDP khng iu chnh nhng u ra c hi nh nhimmi trng hay cc nh hng tiu cc trong qu trnh snxut- GDP khng iu chnh thay i trong s lng ti phmv cc vn x hi khc (t l ly d, tnh trng nghinthuc)- GDP o lng kch c ca chic bnh nhng khng chra cch chia chic bnh cho cng bng 25. I Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP)5 GDP v phc li kinh t rng phn nh c chnh xc mc sng ca ngi dn chngta cng vo GDP (GNP) gi tr ca thi gian ngh ngi, gitr ca hng ha t cung t cp v gi tr do nn kinh tngm to ra tr i nhng sn phm u ra c hi. Kt quchng ta c c phc li kinh t rng NEW.Ngoi ra ngi ta cn s dng cc ch s HumanDevelopment Index (HDI),Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW),Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), gross national happiness(GNH), sustainable national income (SNI), Green NationalProduct o lng mt cch ton din phc li kinh t camt quc gia 26. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)1 Khi nimCh s gi tiu dng l ch s o lng mc gitrung bnh ca gi hng ha v dch v m mt ngitiu dng in hnh mua.Cc thut ng cn ch + mc gi trung bnh+ gi hng ha v dch v+ mt ngi tiu dng in hnh 27. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)2 Phng php o lngBc 1 Chn nm c s v xc nh gi hng chonm c s : thc t ngi ta hay s dng quyn sl t trng chi tiu ca tng mt hng trong giBc 2 Xc nh gi ca tng mt hng trong gihng c nh cho cc nm:Bc 3 Tnh chi ph mua gi hng c nh theo githay i cc nm 28. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)2 Phng php o lngBc 4 Tnh ch s gi tiu dng cho cc nmBc 5 Tnh t l lm pht 29. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)Ngi ta cng c th tnh t l lm pht bng cch sdng DGDPNgoi CPI, trn th gii cn rt nhiu ch s khc olng mc gi chung- Anh s dng ch s gi bn l RPI (retail price index)- M s dng ch s gi sn xut PPI (producer priceindex); CRB index o lng gi c chung ca 22 nguynvt liu quan trng; PCE (personal consumptionexpenditure price index) ch s gi chi tiu tiu dng cnhn 30. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) 31. The composition of the CPIs basket of USA Food and bev.5.8% 5.9% Housing17.6%2.8% Apparel2.5% 4.5% 4.8% Transportation Medical care Recreation16.2% Education Communication40.0% Other goods and services 32. II Ch s gi tiu dng (GDP)3 Nhng vn pht sinh khi o lng CPI- Vn th nht c gi l lch thay th- Vn th hai pht sinh i vi ch s gi tiu dngl s xut hin nhng hng ha mi-Vn th ba gn vi CPI l s thay i khnglng ha c ca cht lngCPI thng nh gi lm pht cao hn lm pht thct khong 1%/nm 33. II Ch s gi tiu dng (GDP)4 So snh CPI v ch s iu chnh GDP-Ch s iu chnh GDP phn nh gi ca mi hng ha vdch v c sn xut trong nc, trong khi ch s gi tiudng phn nh gi ca mi hng ha v dch v cngi tiu dng mua-Gi hng ha v dch v trong CPI l c nh trong mtkhong thi gian, cn hng ha v dch v ca ch s iuchnh GDP thay i qua tng nm khc phc hn ch ca CPI, FED a ra ch s PCEthc cht l DGDP loi b nhng hng ha v dch vkhng c ngi tiu dng in hnh mua v s dng chs ny tnh lm pht nhiu hn t nm 2008. 34. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)4 So snh CPI v ch s iu chnh GDPNgun: Tng cc thng k 35. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)4 So snh CPI v ch s iu chnh GDP 36. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI)5 Vn dng CPI vo trong thc tin- Gi tr ng tin ti cc thi im khc nhau l khcnhau hay sc mua ca ng tin ti cc thi im khcnhau l khc nhau khi so snh gi tr tnh bng tin ticc thi im khc nhau phi quy v cng 1 nm c s- iu chnh cc bin danh ngha: tin lng danh nghav tin lng thc t; li sut thc t, li sut danh nghaVD: nm 1993 lng ti thiu l 120.000 ng; nm 2003lng ti thiu l 290.000 ng; 1/1/2008 lng ti thiul 540.000 ng; 1/5/2009 lng ti thiu ln 650.000ngMi quan h gia li sut thc t (r) vi li sut danhngha (i): r = i - 37. II Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) 38. Cc thut ng quan trng- GDP(gross domestic products), GNP(gross national products), GDP danhngha (nominal GDP), GDP thc t (realGDP), Dgdp (deflator GDP)- CPI (consumer price index), PPI(producer price index)- Bin danh ngha (nominal variable), binthc t (real variable) 39. Cu hi t duyBn s tr li ra sao khi sp gi bn ln phng v ni rng cng ty quyt nh tng lng cho bn (mc lng c 5 triu/thng), bn mun mc lng mi l bao nhiu?