An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies

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An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies. Hiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo 2013/07/30 32 nd USAEE / IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation



An Introduction of the BET model-An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use TechnologiesHiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo

2013/07/3032nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage

1BackgroundAn IAM (integrated assessment model) , which evaluates interactions between energy, the economy, and the environment, is a tool to guide policy discussions for long-term, global sustainable development (Weyant 1999).Recently, advanced end-use technologies have received increasing attention as a key component of options for climate change mitigation (Kyle et al. 2011). Advanced electric technologies include heat-pump water heaters and EVs. A combination of low-carbon power generation (such as renewables, thermal power with CCS, and nuclear) and advanced electric end-use technologies are a promising solution for drastic GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction. 2ObjectivesTo develop an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on a general equilibrium technique (Ramseys optimal growth theory) and including advanced end-use technologies such as heat pump water-heater and electric vehicles.Using the model, to analyze the effects of the advanced end use technologies.

We conduct on-off analyses of the advanced end-use technologies and evaluate the importance of the advanced end use technologies.3BET modelBasic-Energy-Economy-Environment-and-Enduse Technology Model (BET).A MERGE-RICE type global model hard-linked with enduse technologies like MARKAL-MACRO.The economic module is an one-sector CES (constant elasticity substitution) type production function. The energy module is a bottom-up type model that describes vintage of energy facilities and electric load curves.The primary energy includes coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and backstop.World 13 regions; Simulation period: 2010 to 2230 with 10 year-intervals; an NLP model.

45FigureThe modelstructure


TableEnergyServicesIn the modelRegions and Energy systems7BET 13 regionsRegion nameRegion 3 letterUSAusaUSAEurope (EU27+3)europeEURJapanjapanJPNCanada, Australia, and New ZealandcanzCAZOther EurasiaoeurasiaOEARussiarussiaRUSChina incl. Hong KongchinaCHAIndiaindiaINDMiddle East & N. AfricanafricaMNABrazilbrazilBRAASEAN & KoreaaseankASKOther Latin AmericaolatamOLASub-Sahara AfricasafricaSSA

Income identity:Formulation of production function:Patty -Clay type -function.YN: (patty) production; Yt = (1-) Yt-1 + YNt; is a deplation rate.KN: (patty) capital, ln: (patty) labor.DN: Energyservices; DN = f(E).: Negishi weight, df: discount rate..

Objective function:EC is the sum of energy systems cost including enduse technologies.Basic performance of BET.

9populationGDPTPESGDP losses (Base case =0%)10Off: AdvancedEnd useTechsAre Off;On:AdvancedEnd useTechsAre On. GHG accumulation targets

FigPower generation,upper: 2050lower:210011


FigEnergy services,upper: 2050lower:2100


FigEnergy services in vehicle services,upper: 450-offLower: 450-onConclusions Using the BET model, we have conducted simulations and obtained the following results.(1) Turning off the advanced end-use technologies results in GDP losses. Such losses become larger with a more stringent climate policy. The advanced end-use technologies are a way to contain GDP loss when the climate target is stringent. (2) Electricity demand is relatively stable, but non-electricity demand decreases as the GHG constraints become more stringent. This is because electricity can be supplied using various low-carbon options such as renewables, nuclear , and thermal power with CCS.(3) Electrification rates based on energy services are high under stringent GHG constraints. The combination of electrification and advanced electric end-use technologies is a powerful method to achieve strict GHG constraints.



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