An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and a Technical ... ?· An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and…

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  • IEK

    Copyright 2016

    All Rights Reserved

    An Update on the Chinese xEV Market,

    and a Technical Comparison of its Batteries

    Hsueh-lung Lu (Mark)Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK)

    Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) ,Taiwan

    2016/10/19

    World Mobility Summit 2016

    http://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=_rK91Ryogjzc8M&tbnid=wFbFRWJBqrfM5M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.bridgat.com/ni_mh_battery_lithium_polymer_battery-o91643.html&ei=CoZAUYu1He6imQWxm4BQ&psig=AFQjCNEfSKqNCwKKPGXORJGfQRK1OPeP8w&ust=1363269495182748http://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=_Gka_N_UJDkceM&tbnid=cQXuQCdrM3yKUM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://appledomiso.pixnet.net/blog/post/53299100-iphone-%E7%9A%84%E9%9B%BB%E6%B1%A0%E9%95%B7%E7%9A%84%E6%80%8E%E9%BA%BC%E6%A8%A3%EF%BC%9F&ei=Y4ZAUbKOA-HvmAXAhIDwDQ&psig=AFQjCNEfSKqNCwKKPGXORJGfQRK1OPeP8w&ust=1363269495182748http://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=QLsmKHUP4eTzeM&tbnid=rL45JtxxGyVTzM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://electriccarsreport.com/2011/10/electric-vehicle-battery-market-to-reach-14-6-billion-in-revenues-by-2017/&ei=EodAUZawOqX2mAXQ64GwCA&psig=AFQjCNFgK8xH4kwjkrTg4-SFJzcketuJ_g&ust=1363269691870965

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    ITRI Home of Taiwans High-tech Research

    1

    ()

    Information and Communications

    Electronics and Optoelectronics

    Material, Chemical and Nanotechnology

    Mechanical and Systems

    Medical Device and Biomedical

    Green Energy and Environment

    Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center

    (IEK)

    Cross-disciplinary research

    Provide market planning service

    Consultation for Taiwan government

    Promote international collaboration

    Total Staff: 5,806

    Ph.D: 1,372

    Master: 3,207

    Bachelor: 1,227

    Alumni: 23,717

    Total Patents

    24,010

    Startups &Spinoffs (~2015)

    240

    Industry Services (~2015)

    Provided Services18,351

    Transferred Technologies642

    2016.2.1

    file:///K:/760878/Local Settings/Temporary Internet Files/OLKF7/092510innovationawards_WSJ_ITRI.wmv

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    Outline

    What is happening in the Chinese xEV market now and what will happen in the future?

    The market situation of Chinese xEV development and cellmakers strategies

    Summary: Chinese EV Market Notes in 2016~2017

    2

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    Reasons to Promote xEVs in China:

    Vehicle Energy-Saving Control

    3

    All the developed/developing countries have

    159g CO2/km is challenge for ICE

    117g CO2/km in 2020?!

    Source: CEPRI, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/05)

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    Reasons to Promote xEVs in China: PM 2.5 Problem

    4

    Air pollution

    hurts everyone

    in Beijing!

    28% of the

    PM2.5 from

    transportation

    Suspend the

    vehicle licenses

    to control ICE

    vehicle numbers

    No license

    regulation for

    xEVs,

    motivating

    people to buy

    Source: http://www.weibo.com/u/1000481815#_loginLayer_1452656060159 (2015/12)

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    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

    PHEV 3038 29715 83610 280000

    BEV 1217 2300 4900 8159 12791 14604 45048 247482 245.288

    0

    100000

    200000

    300000

    400000

    500000

    600000

    China: The 1st EV Shipment Market in 2015 & 2016

    5

    Chinese xEV Annual Sales Development (Units/CY)

    Note: Data before 2013 is total units, and the production units in 2014=78499, 2015=340,471

    Source: Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers (2016/09)

    74763

    Chinese EV sales in 2014: 74,763, annual growth rate= 323% 2015 sales: 331,092 shipments, annual growth rate= 343% From Jan. to Aug., 2016: 245,288 units, growth rate= 116%, From Jan. to Aug., 2016:

    BEV passenger cars =126,197 (growth 152.2%), PHEV passenger cars =57,632 (growth 78.5%)

    BEV commercial cars (Buses mainly) =57,622 (137.6%), PHEV commercial cars = 7,472 (-15.2%)

    17642

    331092

    (~530,000)?

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    Passenger xEV: Basically Follow the Double Growth Step

    6Source: CPCA, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

    Chinese Passenger xEV Monthly Sales in 2015&2016 (Units/Month)

    Q4 shipments almost equal the Q1~Q3 sum up in 2015, but it means this December should have over

    160K shipment???

    According to the material/ battery cells shipment in Sep. & Oct., Passenger xEV can achieve double

    target

    10000 units

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    BEV Passenger Seems More Preferred in Chinese Market

    5966

    37615044

    6923

    9045 9139 916182307782

    6331

    10579

    13780

    17163

    24869

    2031821629

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

    PHEV Passenger BEV Passenger

    7Source: CPCA, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

    Chinese Passenger xEV Monthly Sales in 2016 (Units/Month)

    BEV sales increased monthly: Subsidies support result

    PHEV sales have begun falling?!

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    BYD Still Leads the Best Selling Models

    8Source: CPCA, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

    Jan.~Aug. 2016 Chinese xEV Accumulated Sales by Models (Units/CY)

    345

    420

    548

    910

    1111

    1130

    1187

    1347

    1675

    2292

    3302

    3604

    5264

    5460

    5968

    6327

    6436

    6649

    7069

    7797

    8227

    8233

    9527

    11649

    12042

    12222

    12798

    15266

    24668

    Dongfeng NissanE30

    BMW i5

    Volvo S60L

    SAIC Roewe E50

    Zotye Ttev

    BYD Denza

    Chery QQ

    Dongfeng NissanLeaf

    SAIC Roewe E950

    GAC Trumpchi GA5

    BJEV Shenbao D70

    Chana EADO

    BYD Qin EV

    Zotye E200

    Geely K17

    BJEV Shenbao D50

    Geely DH EV

    Zotye Cloud100

    BYD e5

    Kandi Panda

    Chery eQ

    JMC E100

    Geely ZD

    BYD e6

    JAC iEV

    SAIC Roewe550

    BJ E Series

    BYD Qin

    BYD Tang

    6 models have sold over 10K, 25 models

    have sold over 1K

    BYD Tang & Qin occupied top 2 & No.6

    BJEV, SAIC, JAC, Geely, Zotye

    Begin to shift from LFP to NMC

    Compact BEV (A00, A0, A) leading

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    BYD Still Leads the Best Selling Models

    9Source: CPCA, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

    Jan.~Aug. 2016 Chinese xEV Accumulated Sales by Models (Units/CY)

    Models Chinese Name ClassSale units in 2016

    Jan.~Aug.

    Battery Capa

    kWhBattery Supplier

    BYD Tang B 24668 18.4BYD PHEV SUV LFPBYD Qin A 15266 13BYD PHEV Car LFPBJ E Series E A0 12798 30.4BJSK, CATL, GXGK, BEV Car NMCSAIC Roewe550 550 A 12222 11.8Wanxiang A123 PHEV Car LFPJAC iEV iEV A0 12042 23GXGK, Lishen BEV Car LFPBYD e6 e6 A 11649 64.5BYD BEV Car LFMPGeely ZD A00 9527 18Lishen BEV Car NMCJMC E100 E100 A00 8233 15.4Sinopoly BEV Car NMCChery eQ eQ A00 8227 22.4Wanxiang A123 BEV Car NMCKandi Panda A00 7797 26.4Lishen, Cham() BEV Car NMCBYD e5 e5 A 7069 47.5BYD BEV Car LFP

    Zotye Cloud100 100 A00 6649 22BAK, Foster,

    GreatpowerBEV Car NMC

    Geely DH EV EV A 6436 45.3CATL BEV Car NMCBJEV Shenbao D50 D50 A 6327 38CATL BEV Car NMCGeely K17 K17 A00 5968 45.3CATL BEV Car NMCZotye E200 E200 A00 5460 24.5BAK, Wina BEV Car NMCBYD Qin EV EV A 5264 47.5BYD BEV Car LFPChana EADO A 3604 30Wanxiang A123 BEV Car NMCBJEV Shenbao D70 X25 A0 3302 18.6CATL BEV Car NMCGAC Trumpchi GA5 GA5 B 2292 13CATL, Optimum PHEV Car NMCSAIC Roewe E950 E50 B 1675 11.8Wanxiang A123 PHEV Car LFPDongfeng NissanLeaf A 1347 24AESC BEV Car LMOChery QQ QQ A00 1187 23Wanxiang A123, Lishen BEV Car NMCBYD Denza B 1130 47.5BYD BEV Car LFP

    Zotye TTev TT ev A00 1111 22BAK, Foster,

    GreatpowerBEV Car NMC

    SAIC Roewe E50 E50 A00 910 22.4Wanxiang A123 BEV Car NMCVolvo S60L Volvo S60L B 548 8GXGK PHEV Car NMC

    BMW i5 5 C 420 11.4CATL PHEV Car NMCDongfeng NissanE30 E30 A00 345 20.5AESC BEV Car LMO

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    Chinese E-Bus Shipments Effected by the Subsidy Fraud

    10Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

    2016 Chinese E-Buses Sales by OEMs (Units)

    Sales Units

    YutongZhongto

    ngBYD BAIC Hager Ankai

    NanjingKL

    AsiastarShangr

    aoXiamen

    KLSuchi DFAC Yangtse Howo

    KLWagon

    Shaolin Others Sunwin ShuduWuzhou

    longChanga

    n

    NEV Bus 8337 6824 4124 2717 2243 2173 1601 1549 1271 1227 1064 1013 998 836 766 471 279 212 108 103 100

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    8000

    9000

    Total=38,016 units

    The promotion delayed in Jan. & Feb.,

    recovered in Q2 & Q3 but slightly

    BEV Buses YoY%=137.6%

    PHEV Buses YoY%=-15.2%

    BEV Bus Prefered

    Medium/ Large Bus design ratio increased

    Still use LFP battery only

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    After the Shock of Subsidy Fraud

    11Source: ITRI/IEK Analysis