Analisa dan forecast objektif

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  • 1. PRAKIRAAN CH DAN HH MEI, JUNI, JULI DI PD BETUNG Siska Chrisvenny Rajagukguk 13.11.2522 Klimatologi

2. Langkah-Langkah Korelasi data Korelasi tertinggi/ terendah Forecast 3. 2013 526.8 224.8 102.1 336.9 4 bln terakhir 3 bln terakhir (A+2B)/3 0.47 0.91 0.76 0.95 -0.49 0.17 -0.05 0.94 -0.55 0.24 -0.02 0.90 0.65 -0.89 -0.37 0.89 0.15 -0.13 -0.04 0.85 TAHUN JAN FEB MAR APR 1980 248.9 264 140.5 202.3 1981 519 174 239 234 1982 403 179 165 180 1983 245 161 238 232 1984 303 284 396 198 NEXT 4. JAN FEB MAR APR 1980 26 19 17 10 1981 27 18 17 13 1982 25 18 16 16 1983 20 15 14 13 1984 24 17 21 22 2013 23 18 12 19 4 bln terakhir 3 Bln terakhir (A+2B)/3 0.42 -0.43 -0.14 0.97 0.57 -0.45 -0.11 0.94 0.77 0.38 0.51 0.90 0.68 -0.13 0.14 0.88 0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.87 NEXT 5. 0.95 0.94 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.20 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.02 -0.04 -0.09 -0.12 -0.21 -0.36 NEXT 2013 FORECAST HH MEI JUNI JULI 13.8 8 5.6 6. 0.97 0.94 0.90 0.88 0.87 0.25 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.10 -0.10 -0.11 -0.14 -0.16 NEXT 7. KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI (HUJAN) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 2012 0.95 430.7 258.1 133.3 277.4 199.1 89.1 7.3 2011 0.94 170.8 132 64 186.2 122.6 75.5 71.8 1982 0.90 403 179 165 180 103 70 109 1986 0.89 278 227 223 273 232 126 113 1997 0.85 327.5 186.1 189.1 316.7 275.5 16.6 2.5 0 100 200 300 400 500 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AxisTitle KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI 2012 2011 1982 1986 1997 NEXT 8. NEXT JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 2002 0.20 737.6 425.2 289 268.9 114.3 72.3 156.3 2007 0.11 140.6 831.4 83.6 266 180.3 70.4 0.7 1990 0.08 560.5 251.7 151.9 110.1 319.5 141.2 153 1983 0.05 245 161 238 232 261 113 0 2008 0.02 240.3 592.5 174.5 206.6 113.7 99.9 9.1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AxisTitle KORELASI (+) TERENDAH 2002 2007 1990 1983 2008 9. KORELASI (-) TERTINGGI JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 1996 -0.04 298.2 482.9 278.2 281.4 68.6 55.8 36 1999 -0.09 279.9 262 151.5 90.8 281.8 173.8 111.5 1987 -0.12 482 250 331 290 162 149 82 1988 -0.21 325 234 185 109 324 96 84 2004 -0.36 385.8 317 334.1 182.8 290.4 26.8 228.8 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AxisTitle KORELASI (-) TERTINGGI 1996 1999 1987 1988 2004+Sheet1!$E$77:$K$77 NEXT 10. korelasi (+) tertinggi (HH) Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul 2006 0.97 28 26 14 21 8 6 3 2000 0.94 23 18 15 21 22 13 6 2002 0.90 30 28 16 24 11 12 15 2012 0.88 28 18 15 17 20 3 1 1991 0.87 28 26 14 21 8 6 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Korelasi (+) Tertinggi 2006 2000 2002 2012 1991 NEXT 11. korelasi (+) terendah Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul 1989 0.25 19 26 19 19 31 15 12 1983 0.14 20 15 14 13 17 7 0 1998 0.03 12 24 22 22 21 20 20 2008 0.01 16 27 20 18 13 9 1 1984 0.00 24 17 21 22 13 7 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Korelasi Positif Terendah 1989 1983 1998 2008 1984 NEXT 12. korelasi (-) tertinggi Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul 2004 -0.10 23 21 19 15 20 8 9 1993 -0.10 25 21 23 23 15 14 8 1981 -0.11 27 18 17 13 11 12 14 1980 -0.14 26 19 17 10 9 6 8 2011 -0.16 21 17 16 12 19 6 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Korelasi Negatif Tertinggi 2004 1993 1981 1980 2011 NEXT 13. NEXT FORECAST 2013 MAY JUN JUL KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI 186.44 75.44 60.72 KORELASI (+) TERENDAH 1099.72 75.44 60.72 KORELASI (-) 1099.72 75.44 60.72 14. NEXT FORECAST 2013 MAY JUN JUL KORELASI (+) TERTINGGI 13.8 8 5.6 KORELASI (+) TERENDAH 19 16 8 KORELASI (-) 15 9 9.6