Buffett cung khong hoan hao

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<ul><li><p>Cng Ty Samsung Trn trng gi n bn cun sch ny.</p><p>Phin bn ebook ny c thc hin theo bn quyn xut bn v pht hnh n bn</p><p>ting Vit ca cng ty First News - Tr Vit vi s ti tr c quyn ca cng ty</p><p>TNHH Samsung Electronics Vit Nam. Tc phm ny khng c chuyn dng</p><p>sang bt k hnh thc no hay s dng cho bt k mc ch thng mi no.</p></li><li><p>Original title:Even Buffett isn't Perfect: What You Can - and Cant - Learn fromthe Worlds Greatest Investorby Vahan Janjigian</p><p>Copyright Vahan Janjigian, 2008.</p><p>Vietnamese Edition 2010 by First News Tri Viet.This edition is published by arrangement with Portfolio,a member of Penguin Group ( USA) Inc.All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole orin part in any form.</p><p>EVEN BUFFETT ISN'T PERFECT NGAY C BUFFETT CNG KHNG HON HO </p><p>Cng ty First News Tr Vit gi bn quyn xut bn v pht hnh nbn ting Vit trn ton th gii theo hp ng chuyn giao bn quynvi NXB Portfolio, thuc Penguin Group (USA) Inc.</p><p>Bt c s sao chp no khng c s ng ca First News u l bthp php v vi phm Lut Xut bn Vit Nam, Lut Bn quyn Quct v Cng c Bo h Bn quyn S hu Tr tu Berne.</p><p>CNG TY VN HA SNG TO TR VIT - FIRST NEWS</p><p>11H Nguyn Th Minh Khai, Q. 1, TP. H Ch MinhTel: (84.8) 38227979 - 38227980 - 38233859 - 38233860</p><p>Fax: (84.8) 38224560; Email: triviet@firstnews.com.vnWebsite: www.firstnews.com.vn</p></li><li><p>Ngay c</p><p>BUFFETTCNG KHNG</p><p>HON HONhng bi hc gi tr t Nh u t </p><p>Thng minh Nht Th gii</p><p>Ngi dch: </p><p>Nguyn Trung An (MBA) </p><p>Vng Bo Long</p><p>First News</p><p>NH XUT BN TR </p><p>VA H A N J A N J I G I A N</p></li><li><p>LI TA</p><p>ahan Janjigian l ngi c y cc phm cht c bit vit v Warren Buffett. Tuy Nh hin trit x Omaha l ch ca rt nhiu quyn sch, nhng quyn sch ca Vahan rt c bit.N khng phi l mt l th tnh cng khng phi l mt s ch trchhay lng m. Vahan cng l mt ngi la chn c phiu rt xut sc ng qun l hai bn tin u t Forbes Special Situation Survey vForbes Growth Investor. ng th hin mt nng lc tht tuyt vi.Nhng ngi nhn hai bn tin ny thu c nhiu ch li t nhngphn tch sc bn, khng cm tnh ca Vahan. Do , Vahan c cnhng kin thc su sc thc s cm nhn c hiu qu phithng ca Warren Buffett Tp on Berkshire Hathaway. nggii thch mt cch cn thn v kin nhn phng php u t klut cao v s nhn xa trng rng ca Buffett cng nh s tin haca n trong qu trnh pht trin ti sn ca Berkshire Hathaway.</p><p>Nhng y khng phi l mt bn phn tch y v hintng Buffett Vahan kho lo s dng nhng kin thc su scv s thnh cng ca con ngi v i ny dy cho chng ta nhngiu cn bit v u t gi tr nhm duy tr hiu qu cao trn thtrng. Vahan cng phn tch k lng nhng chin lc u tkhc, v Ph Wall khng ch tn ti mt cch u t duy nht.</p><p>Rc ri vi hu ht cc nh u t l h thng xuyn nhyt phng php ny sang phng php khc. Rt t ngi kin trnh Buffett trong vic gi li c phiu nhiu nm trc khi bn i.</p></li><li><p>V cng c rt t ngi c kh nng p dng mt cch nht qunnhng chin lc khc nhau m Vahan phn tch trong quyn schny. Nu bn sn sng dp b cm xc qua mt bn, quyn sch nys tr thnh mt kho bu kin thc u t su sc dnh cho bn.</p><p>Khng c nh u t no lun lun ng. Con ngi khngth lm c iu . Bn thn Buffett cng c nhng giai on khkhn phi bn l nhng c phiu m ng mua. Tuy nhin, ngthng nm gi nhng c phiu tt kh lu. Nh p dng mtphng php u t nht qun v an ton thm ch cn c tinhchnh theo thi gian Buffett lm c nhng iu k diu.</p><p>Rt may l bn khng cn phi l mt Warren Buffett mi kimc mc thu nhp trong m t th trng chng khon. S k diuca li sut kp c ngha l bt c nh u t cn trng no cng cth t c thnh cng thc s v lu di.</p><p>iu lm cho quyn sch ny c bit c gi tr l VahanJanjigian khng phi l ngi m qung khi ng khn ngoan nhnra rng hot ng u t khng din ra trong mi trng chnkhng. Chng vit v thu l phn m tt c mi ngi nn c,c bit l cc chnh tr gia. ng ngc nhin l mt thin ti nhBuffett li c ci nhn thin cn v vn then cht ny. Khi ArnoldSchwazenegger quyt nh chy ua vo chc Thng c bangCalifornia, Buffett khuyn ng nn ng h vic tng cc loi thunh trn ti sn, iu ny sut ko chn Arnold li vi th gii innh Hollywood thay v a ng vo Dinh Thng c.</p><p>Nh nhiu ngi khc Washington, Buffett ngh rng ngigiu nn b nh thu thu nhp vi thu sut cao hn. ng cng rasc ng h vic p dng thu ti sn tha k.</p><p>6 - </p></li><li><p>Buffett tin rng ngi M c sng trong mt t nc tuytvi v nhng ngi may mn lm n tt M nn ng thunhiu hn. Ma mai thay, nu li khuyn ca Buffett c thc hinth nn kinh t s vn hnh km i v gi tr ca cc khon u t caBuffett s chu nh hng nng n. Hy nhn li hiu qu ngho nnca chng khon v nn kinh t trong thi k thu cao thp k 1970m xem.</p><p>iu m Nh hin trit x Omaha v qu nhiu ngi khckhng nhn ra l thu cng l mt ci gi phi tr v l mt gnhnng, ch khng ch l mt phng tin tng thu nhp cho ngn schnh nc. Thu thu nhp l ci gi bn phi tr lm vic; thu litc l gnh nng ln vai bn nu bn kinh doanh thnh cng; vmc thu m bn phi tr cho nhng khon li tc t vn u t lci gi bn phi tr cho nhng ri ro m mnh phi chp nhn. Rtn gin, nu bn gim nh gnh nng cho nhng iu tch cc nhlm vic t nng sut cao, dm chp nhn ri ro v kinh doanhthnh cng th chng s thng xuyn din ra hn. Tng gi ln thiu ngc li s xy ra. Janjigian ch ra rng 1% nhng ngi cthu nhp hng u nc M chim n 21% tng thu nhp c tora v h tr n 39% thu thu nhp lin bang.</p><p>Buffett cng chm hiu nh vy i vi vn thu ti sntha k (death tax). ng ng h vic thu hi ti sn v tin rng chnhph nn nhn phn ln ti sn m bn li. Nu khng, nhngngi tha k ca bn s nhn c ti sn m khng phi lao ngv ca tri cho s lm xi mn tnh cch ca h, khuyn khch hsng hng th mt cch v trch nhim. Tri li, thu ti sn thak li mang tnh trng pht i vi hot ng to dng vn v tnhtit kim. Ti sao li phi tch ly ti sn nu phn ln chng s ri</p><p>7</p></li><li><p>vo tay chnh ph mt cch d dng? Vahan vit rng: Ti sn lnhng g cn li sau khi np tt c cc khon thu. Cn cc nhlp quc ca chng ta c th s din gii vn ny theo cch sau:Cn sng l cn ng thu!.</p><p>Thu ti sn tha k c mt tc ng k l m Buffett v nhngngi ng h khc khng nhn thy. Khi thu sut cao, nhng ngirt giu s tm cch n trnh loi thu ny. Chnh trch nhim ngthu ti sn ca Buffett cng rt thp v ng ang trao tng hu httin bc ca mnh cho Qu t thin Bill &amp; Melinda Gates. Nhngngi thc s giu c thit lp nhng c ch b mt v nhng mnhkhe khc gi cho ti sn ca mnh nguyn vn, v iu thngng ngha vi vic nhng ngi tha k s khng trc tip chmtay n n. Ti sn do vn c duy tr nguyn vn. Nu khngc thu ti sn tha k, phn ln ti sn s chuyn trc tip vo taycon chu h - hu ht nhng ngi ny khng c c bn nng kinhdoanh; cho nn, s tin s nhanh chng c lun chuyn. l bncht ca con ngi. V d, hy xem xt danh sch 400 ngi giunht nc M ca Forbes ngy nay, khng ngi no trong s h ch du Pont v ch c mt ngi c h Rockefeller, trong khi chai gia nh ny u kim sot nhng ti sn khng l cch y trndi 25 nm.</p><p>Nhng ngi tin tng mnh m vo thu cao pht l lchs. Nhng k hoch ct gim thu thu nhp ln thi Reagan nm1981 v 1986 bin mt nn kinh t M nh n thnh nn kinht nng ng nht th gii. T trng GDP ca nc M so vi GDPton cu tng mnh m, cng nh gi tr vn c phn ca nc Mso vi tng gi tr vn c phn ca c th gii.</p><p>8 - </p></li><li><p>S tng thu ca Clinton nm 1993 lm chm ng k tc tng trng ca nn kinh t M v gp phn lm cho ng Dnch tht bi thm hi trong k bu c nm 1994. Vi nhng ngithuc ng Cng ha thuc phe a s trong Quc hi, v Tngthng ng h tng thu Clinton b dn vo chn tng. Chngtrnh x hi ha y t ca b Clinton b tht bi. Chi tiu b kim sot.V quan trng nht l c nhng ng thi tch cc v thu sau :thu nh trn li tc t vn c ct gim gn 29%. Thu nh trnli tc t vn cho nhng ngi s hu nh gn nh c loi b, vphp lnh dng nh thu trn Internet c chuyn thnh lut iu ny gp phn rt ln vo vic pht trin nn kinh t mt cchmnh m. Chng trnh ct gim thu nm 2003 ca chnh quynBush thu thu nhp trn vn u t tip tc c ct gim, thuthu nhp t c tc i vi c nhn c gim nh, v nhng gi kchthch doanh nghip u t c trin khai bin nn kinh t Mt vic tng trng vi tc thc 1% ln thnh 3-4%. T nm 2003n 2007, s tng trng ca nn kinh t M vt quy m tngth ca nn kinh t Trung Quc. V bn c on c iu gkhng? Vn c phn tng vt gn gp i so vi mc thp nht vocui nm 2002.</p><p>Vahan cn ch ra mt kha cnh khc m Buffett t ra thin cn:thng tin nh hng thu nhp. Hu ht cc tp on i chng lnu cung cp cho cc nh phn tch chng khon c tnh thu nhpk vng ca h cho tng qu. Nu cng ty khng t c mc thunhp k vng d ch t hn mt vi xu th c phiu ca h s gimmnh. Buffett cm thy nhng thng tin nh hng nh vy gpphn lm tng tnh thiu n nh ca th trng chng khon vbuc b my qun l hng n nhng hot ng qu thin v ngn</p><p>9</p></li><li><p>hn. ng thuyt phc nhiu cng ty m ng nm gi c phiuln, nh Coca-Cola v Washington Post, ngng cung cp thng tinnh hng.</p><p>Vahan a ra mt phn bin ht sc thuyt phc v tinh t.D c hay khng c cung cp thng tin v thu nhp k vng, ccnh u t cng t a ra cc c tnh ca h. Hn na, b myqun l cn phi cung cp thng tin cho nh u t nhiu hn, chkhng phi t i. V tnh khng n nh ca th trng, cc nghincu cho thy nhng cng ty khng cung cp thng tin nh hngthng d bin ng hn nhng cng ty c cung cp. Quan trnghn l nhng cng ty khng cung cp thng tin nh hng thngc gi tr vn ha th trng nh hn. Ni cch khc, nhng cng tya ra c tnh thu nhp thng c gi c phiu cao hn.</p><p>V th, y l mt quyn sch khc thng. Tuy tp trung niv nh u t thnh cng nht trong lch s hin i, nhng n cngmang li cho c gi nhng kin thc su sc v chin lc chc chn u t. V cui cng, nhng din gii ca n v thu v s minhbch trong qun tr s to ra mt mi trng thun li gi tr vnc phn m rng hn na.</p><p>Tm li, bn ang c trong tay mt quyn sch 3 trong 1,ngha l bn ang nm gi mt ti sn gi tr cao b nh gi thp.</p><p>- Steve ForbesCh tch kim Gim c iu hnh Forbes Inc.</p><p>Tng bin tp tp ch Forbes</p><p>10 - </p></li><li><p>GII THIU</p><p>Ngy 26 thng 6 nm 2006, ngi giu th hai nc M thngbo rng ng s trao tng phn ln ti sn ca mnh cho ngi giunht nc M. Ngi bn cnh v chng Bill v Melinda Gates Thvin Quc gia New York, Warren Buffett cng b k hoch hintng 10 triu c phiu ph thng loi B ca Berkshire Hathaway, trgi c tnh vo thi im khong 31 t USD, cho Qu T thinBill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation. Ngoi ra, ng cn dnh thm 2triu c phiu, tng ng 6,3 t USD, trao tng cho nhng qu tthin do ba ngi con ca ng iu hnh, trong c mt qu tthin c t tn theo tn ngi v qu c ca ng. Ch bng mthnh ng, ngi n ng tng to dng c ting tm lng lyvi vic xy dng mt trong nhng khi ti sn c nhn v i nhtth gii m bo rng th gii ny s nh mi lng ho tm ca ng,cng gn ging nh cch m ng ang ghi tn mnh vo s sch canhn loi v ti nng lm giu xut chng ca mnh.</p><p>Ti sn ca Buffett qu thc l v cng to ln. ng to ra nbng cch u t. Thc ra, c th ni rng Buffett l nh u t vi nht ca mi thi i. Khng ai c cht my may nghi ng nov iu ny, bi chc chn ng s hu mt trong nhng k lc kinhdoanh lu di tt nht. V ng lnh o tp on Berkshire</p></li><li><p>Hathaway, mt cng ty i chng c giao dch trn sn chngkhon, nn nhng quyt nh u t ca ng u c th hin honton minh bch, khng cht giu gim v cng d dng theo di.Buffett nm quyn iu hnh Berkshire t nhng nm 1960 v cuicng chuyn i n t mt cng ty dt thnh mt cng ty u t.Di triu i ca ng, trong vai tr gim c iu hnh, ng to ra mt gia ti khng l cho bn thn v cho tt c cc c ngkhc.</p><p>T duy ca Buffett i khi khng mang tnh truyn thng. Vd, hu ht cc nh u t khc thch nhn thy gi c phiu m hmua tng ln nhanh chng. Buffett khng thch vy. ng ni rngthi im duy nht m bn nn thch gi c phiu tng ln l thiim bn sn sng bn chng i. V Buffett l mt nh u t dihn, nn ng khng mun nhn thy gi tng ln ngay lp tc. Thcra, nu ng thc s thch mt c phiu no n, ng s cm thy vuihn nu gi gim, nh ng c th mua thm c phiu v thcs ct gim c mc chi ph c bn. Bng cch ny, khi gi hi phcsau nhiu bin c, ng s nhn c nhng khon li nhun khngl. Cch t duy nh th ny mang li cho Berkshire nhng khonli nhun t vn vo khong 8,5 t USD t American Express, 8 tUSD t Coca-Cola, 5,5 t USD t Procter &amp; Gamble, v 4 t USDt Wells Fargo. Mt s m c phiu trong danh mc u t caBerkshire cng to ra nhng t sut li nhun khng l. Ch ringtin li t cng ty ch qun t Washington Post cng t n mc11.600%.</p><p>Mt trong nhng tnh cch ng qu nht ca Buffett l ngbit r nhng im hn ch ca mnh. V d, ng bit rng mnh</p><p>12 - </p></li><li><p>khng th tr thnh chuyn gia trong tt c cc ngnh kinh doanh.Nhng bo him l mt ngnh m ng hiu r tng ng i ncbc. ng c mt k nng c bit trong vic nh gi ri ro. ngkhm ph ra cch u t khon tin ch ca cc cng ty bo himvi sut thu nhp cao thanh ton nhng yu cu bo himtrong tng lai v li rt nhiu li nhun cho c ng.</p><p>Buffett lun thc hin theo mt phng php tip cn u tmang tnh k lut. ng tr nn ni ting trong vic trnh nhngphong cch v chin lc u t nng (nhng cui cng ha rachng c ngha g ngoi nhng ln sng o tng chng tn). Vd, th trng chng khon M bng n t nhng nm gia v cuithp nin 1990, ch yu c thc y bi cc c phiu cng ngh.Buffett ni ting tm cch n trnh chnh nhng c phiu tng tkhi chng thc y cc ch s th trng ln cao cha tng c. Thmch, ng cn khng mua mt c phiu no ca Microsoft, mc dcng ty ny c ngi bn tt Bill Gates ca ng lnh o.</p><p>Buffett b nhiu ngi ch trch v khng tham gia vo cucua do ngnh cng ngh dn u , nhng ng khng my quantm n nhng ngi ph bnh mnh. Nhng c ng Berkshirecng vy. H hiu phng php tip cn lu di ca ng v h t tinrng di s dn dt ca Buffett, h s hon ton c tha mn vinhng khon thu nhp t c.</p><p>Buffett lun gn lin vi nhng g ng bit r nht. ng thchcc cng ty hot ng trong nhng ngnh kinh doanh n gin mng c th hiu v kim sot c. ng khng hiu lm th no nh gi ngnh phn mm v ngnh cht bn dn. ng ngh rngqu kh c th d bo dng tin ca nhng cng ty ny vi </p><p>13</p></li><li><p>chnh xc cao. Tuy nhin, ng hiu rt su v cch nh gi ngnhnc gii kht c ga, dao co v ngn hng. ng cng thch cc cngty c qun l bi nhng ngi lnh o trung thc v c ti nng.V trn ht, ng mun mua li nhng cng ty vi mc gi thp hngi tr ni ti ca chng, v s nm gi chng trong mt khong thigian rt di. Thc t chng minh rng chin lc ny mang lili ch v cng to ln cho ng v cc c ng Berkshire Hathawaytrong hn bn thp k qua.</p><p>Tuy nhin, tr li nhng nm 1990, c nhiu nh u t nghrng Buffett nh mt cm gic ca mnh. ng khng thmquan tm n s thnh cng m ng t c qua mt thi gian di.H tin rng ng l chuyn ca xu hng mi. Vo thi im, nhiu nh u t bt u tin rng chng ta bc sang mtthi i mi. Thc ra, cc chuyn gia gi l nn kinh t mi. Hcho rng cc quy lut c khng cn p dng c na. Nhng nhu t ny khng ngn ngi thu mua v s c phiu c bn vi gicao gp nhiu ln m ch mt thi gian trc c xem l mcgi cao mt cch k quc.</p><p>C l cch suy ngh ny c minh ha r nht bng mt l thgi cho bn tin Forbes Special Situation Survey bi mt trong nhngngi ng k bo di hn. N c vit vo u nm 2000, giaion cui ca hin tng c gi l thi k bng n bong bngdot-com (ly t cch c .com thng xut hin trong tn cc cngty hot ng trn nn tng Internet), p li mt s xut muac phiu ngha l c phiu ca mt cng ty thuc nn kinh t ctheo khi nim lc . Chng c g lin quan n cng ngh cao ivi c phiu ny. Thc ra, n l loi c phiu m bn thn Buffett c</p><p>14 - </p></li><li><p>l cng a thch, nhng tc gi l th n vit: Bn c thc smong ti mua mt c phiu c th tng ln ch khong 40% trong 2nm khng? Ti 80 tui ri. Ti chng th sng mun i kim c mt khon tin t i th u!.</p><p>L th c v nh mt cu chuyn a, nhng ngi vit thcs rt nghim tc. Nhng t ng ca b r rng chng thc rngmc bt hp l v kh duy tr t nhng k vng ca nh u ttrong nhng ngy thng bng bng kh th y l ng. By gi,bn c th d dng nhn li nhng iu din ra v ni rng l ra ccnh u t lc nn hiu r hn nhng iu mnh lm. Khng mayl nhiu nh u t cho bn thn mnh ri vo vng xoy inlon ca m ng. Buffett khng bao gi b ri vo ci by ny.ng l bc thy ca s im tnh. ng lun lun suy ngh mt cchhp l v c phng php hn hoi. T duy v u t theo cch caBuffett c th mang li li nhun c bit khi tt c nhng ngikhc b cm xc v s in lon ca m ng dn dt hnh ngca mnh.</p><p>Theo cng ty nghin cu th trng chng khon IbbotsonAssociates, tng sut thu nhp trung bnh di hn theo s hc (nghal bao gm c c tc) cho nhng c phiu c mc vn ha th trngln ch vo khong 12% mt nm (t 5 t USD tr ln c xem lc mc vn ha ln). i vi nhng c phiu c mc vn ha nh,con s thng tt hn khong 17% mt nm.</p><p>Nhng vo cui nhng nm 1990, cc nh u t li mun thuli nhiu hn. H lun nghe ni n cc c phiu trong lnh vcInternet vi nhng ci tn nghe rt bun ci, dn...</p></li></ul>