Dairy Statistics 2014

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Report on Dairy Consumption and Production in Europe

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<ul><li><p>Dairy statisticsAn insiders guide 2014</p></li><li><p>Contents </p><p>Introduction 4</p><p>Farm inputs UK feed prices 5UK fertiliser prices 6Oil prices 7GB land prices 8Rent prices in England and Wales 9</p><p>On-farm data UK dairy farm numbers 10Producer numbers by region 11EU dairy producer numbers 12UK dairy cow numbers 15UK average herd size 16EU dairy cow numbers 17UK average milk yield 18TB incidences in cattle in Great Britain 19Profitability of dairy production systems 20</p><p>Milk supply GB and UK wholesale milk deliveries 22Milk deliveries by nation (Butterfat adjusted) 24EU-28 wholesale deliveries 25World production 27UK milk flow 29</p><p>Milk prices and contractsUK annual average farmgate price 30UK monthly average farmgate price 31UK milk producer league table 33Market indicators 35EU annual average farmgate price 37UK wholesale prices 39EU wholesale prices 40</p></li><li><p>World wholesale prices 41Fonterra auction prices 42</p><p>Dairy processing and trade UK milk utilisation 43EU dairy product production 44UK mild Cheddar margins 45UK mature Cheddar margins 47EU market management measures 49UK quota position 51UK dairy trade balance 52EU dairy balance sheet 54World dairy trade 55</p><p>Consumer UK average household consumption 57Liquid milk retail prices 59Branded vs private label liquid milk retail prices 60Liquid milk sales 61Pasteurised milk 62Organic and filtered milk sales 63Modified and UHT milk sales 64Milk purchases by container type 65Cheese market 66Cheddar market 68EU butter consumption 70EU liquid milk consumption 71EU cheese consumption 72</p><p>Useful information Conversion tables 73UK dairy industry organisations 74Internet sites for sourcing agricultural information 76About DairyCo 78</p></li><li><p>Introduction</p><p>This guide has been designed to give answers to the most frequently asked questions about the dairy industry in the UK and the world.</p><p>It provides data stretching from the farmgate to consumers and, this snapshot of the dairy industry, is increasingly used by the media and farmer groups to improve bargaining power and start informed debates.</p><p>In addition to the information provided in this guide, please find details of web addresses on page 76 which explain the areas discussed in more detail.</p><p>We would like to express our gratitude to the many individuals and organisations who have provided some of the statistics found in this publication. This support is gratefully acknowledged.</p><p>To receive free, regular market updates emailed to you every week, call the MI team on 024 7647 8685 or email datum.info@dairyco.ahdb.org.uk and ask for the free DairyCo Dairy Market Weekly.</p><p>Further information on these topics can be found at dairyco.org.uk/market-information</p><p>Market Intelligence Team</p><p>DairyCo</p><p>4</p></li><li><p>Farm inputs</p><p>UK feed prices</p><p>5</p><p>Global grain prices fell in 2013 on increased grain supplies, however, the smallest UK wheat harvest since 2001 meant UK wheat prices declined by a lesser extent.</p><p>The price of feed wheat fell by 6/tonne (3.1%) and the price of intensive energy dairy feed rose 23/tonne (8.8%).</p><p>Average price (/tonne)</p><p>2008 2012 2013</p><p>Feed Wheat 143 193 187</p><p>Soyameal Argentine 262 351 386</p><p>Intensive Energy Dairy Rations 206 261 284</p><p>Note: Prices are from different outlets: Feed Wheat (Delivered), Soyameal (Ex-Store), Intensive Energy Dairy Rations (On Farm).</p><p>Source: FARM BRIEF, AHDB/HGCA.</p><p>This data is protected under the various copyright acts. No reproduction in whole or in part is permitted by any means whether printed, photocopied, sound or visual broadcast without the express permission of FARM BRIEF.</p><p>UK feed prices</p><p>450</p><p>400</p><p>350</p><p>300</p><p>250</p><p>200</p><p>150</p><p>100</p><p>50</p><p>0</p><p>Intensive EnergyDairy Rations</p><p>Soyameal(Argentine)</p><p>Feed Wheat</p><p>08 09 10 11 12 13</p><p>/to</p><p>nne</p><p>Source: FARM BRIEF, AHDB/HGCA.</p></li><li><p>Farm inputs</p><p>UK fertiliser prices</p><p>Average prices for AN (Ammonium Nitrate) fell by 9.5% between 2012 and 2013 to 277/tonne, due to lower global Urea prices.</p><p>Average price (/tonne)</p><p>2008 2012 2013</p><p>20.10.10 Blended bags 379 316 293</p><p>Granular Urea (bags) 353 356 308</p><p>AN (UK - Bags) 337 306 277</p><p>Source: FARM BRIEF.</p><p>UK fertiliser prices</p><p>400</p><p>380</p><p>360</p><p>340</p><p>320</p><p>300</p><p>280</p><p>260</p><p>240</p><p>220</p><p>200</p><p>AN(UK - bags)</p><p>Granular Urea(bags)</p><p>20.10.10Blended bags</p><p>08 09 10 11 12 13</p><p>/to</p><p>nne</p><p>Note: Urea data prior to Jan 2012 is based upon Prilled Urea as Granular prices were not available.</p><p>Source: FARM BRIEF.</p><p>This data is protected under the various copyright acts. No reproduction in whole or in part is permitted by any means whether printed, photocopied, sound or visual broadcast without the express permission of FARM BRIEF.</p><p>6</p></li><li><p>Farm inputs</p><p>Oil prices</p><p>Oil prices fell in 2013 on the previous year to an average price of $105.87/barrel. However, this price was still up 276.8% on the average price a decade ago.</p><p>The average price in 2013 of 67.74/barrel was 1.9% lower than 2012.</p><p>Average oil price</p><p>2003 2012 2013</p><p>US$/barrel 28.10 109.45 105.87</p><p>/barrel 17.17 69.07 67.74</p><p>Source: OPEC. Prices have been converted from US$/barrel using average annual exchange rates.</p><p>Oil prices</p><p>7</p><p>80</p><p>70</p><p>60</p><p>50</p><p>40</p><p>30</p><p>20</p><p>1004 06 08 10 1203 05 07 09 11 13</p><p>/ba</p><p>rrel</p><p>Source: OPEC. Prices have been converted from US$/barrel using average annual exchange rates.</p></li><li><p>The average price for pasture land in England and Wales stood at 17,191/hectare in H2-2013, an increase of 661 (4.0%) from H1-2013. The average price for arable land was 21,129/hectare in H2-2013, up 883 on H1-2013 (4.4%).</p><p>The highest pasture land price in H2-2013 was 21,313/hectare in the North West, unchanged on H1-2013. The lowest price was in Scotland at 6,178/hectare, down 9.1% on H1-2013 but unchanged on H2-2012.</p><p>The highest price for arable land was 22,239/hectare, which was recorded in both the North West and South East in H2-2013. The lowest price was in Scotland at 12,355/hectare, down 18.4% on H1-2013, unchanged on H2-2012.</p><p>Land prices for dairy farms (pasture land) in England and Wales</p><p>/ac /ha</p><p>H2-2013 6,957 17,191</p><p>Source: RICS Farmland Market Survey.</p><p>Land prices England and Wales</p><p>Farm inputs</p><p>GB land prices</p><p>8</p><p>18,000</p><p>16,000</p><p>14,000</p><p>12,000</p><p>10,000</p><p>8,000</p><p>6,000</p><p>4,000</p><p>2,000</p><p>0</p><p> per hectacre per acre</p><p>08 09 10 11 12 13</p><p>Note: The above graph shows annual average prices for pasture land.</p><p>Source: AHDB/DairyCo, RICS Farmland Market Survey.</p></li><li><p>Farm inputs</p><p>Rent prices in England and Wales</p><p>Rent levels across England and Wales have been quite variable between H2-2012 and H2-2013. The average rent for pasture land in England and Wales (ATA 95) rose by 4/hectare (1.9%) from 241/hectare in H2-2012 to 245/hectare in H2-2013. There was, however, a 24/hectare (9.0%) half-yearly decrease between H1-2013 and H2-2013.</p><p>The average rent price for arable land in England and Wales (ATA 95) rose by 14/hectare (3.9%) to 387/hectare between H2-2012 and H2-2013. Land rented under AHA 86 also showed a 3.9% increase to 201/hectare.</p><p>Land rent levels for dairy farms (pasture land) in England and Wales</p><p>AHA 86 ATA 95</p><p>/ac /ha /ac /ha</p><p>H2-2013 57 141 99 245</p><p>Note: AHA 86 The Agricultural Holdings Act 1986, ATA 95 The Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995.</p><p>Source: RICS Farmland Market Survey.</p><p>Land rent levels England and Wales</p><p>9</p><p>300</p><p>250</p><p>200</p><p>150</p><p>100</p><p>50</p><p>0</p><p>/ha</p><p>ATA 95AHA 86</p><p>08 09 10 11 12 13</p><p>Note: The above graph shows annual average rental prices for pasture land. </p><p>AHA 86 The Agricultural Holdings Act 1986. ATA 95 The Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995.</p><p>Source: AHDB/DairyCo, RICS Farmland Market Survey.</p></li><li><p>On-farm data</p><p>UK dairy farm numbers</p><p>10</p><p>In June 2013, there were 13,265 dairy farms in the UK 8.8% (1,284) less than in 2012. </p><p>In the past ten years, the number of dairy farms in England and Wales has fallen by 37.7%. In Scotland, the number of dairy farms has fallen by 43.6% and in Northern Ireland by 39.6%.</p><p>June census</p><p>2003 2012 2013</p><p>England &amp; Wales 16,977 10,724 10,581</p><p>Scotland 1,590 1,163 896</p><p>Northern Ireland 4,425 2,662* 2,684*</p><p>UK 22,992 14,549 13,265</p><p>Note: England and Wales producer number figure for 2012 is a May figure as June data was not available.</p><p>For England and Wales, all premises where milk is produced are referred to as Production Holdings; this includes holdings with sheep, goats and buffalo.</p><p>*Change in methodology in Northern Ireland in 2012 with data revised back to 2006.Figures for Scotland are for dairy type holdings where dairy farming contributes more than two-thirds of the holding standard gross margins up until 2012. As of June 2013, Scotland has changed its typology which is now based on 11 farm types and uses the cattle tracing scheme resulting in a significant fall in the number of holdings compared with 2012.</p><p>Source: DHI, DARD, SEERAD.</p><p>UK dairy farm numbers</p><p>25,000</p><p>20,000</p><p>15,000</p><p>10,000</p><p>5,000</p><p>003 04 05 06* 07* 08* 09* 10* 11* 12* 13*</p><p>Source: DHI, DARD, SEERAD.</p></li><li><p>On-farm data</p><p>Producer numbers by region</p><p>Figures are for May unless otherwise stated.</p><p>11</p><p>Note: September figures were used for 2003. Therefore figures do not tally exactly with the farm numbers table on page 10.</p><p>*Figures for Scotland are for dairy type holdings where dairy farming contributes more than two-thirds of the holding standard gross margins up until 2012. As of June 2013, Scotland has changed its typology which is now based on 11 farm types and uses the cattle tracing scheme resulting in a significant fall in the number of holdings compared with 2012.</p><p>Source: DHI, DARD, SEERAD.</p><p>Scot</p><p>land</p><p>2003 1,590</p><p>2012 1,163</p><p>2013* 896</p><p>Nor</p><p>th</p><p>2003 3,217</p><p>2012 2,141</p><p>2013 2,120</p><p>Mid</p><p>land</p><p>s 2003 4,524</p><p>2012 2,850</p><p>2013 2,780</p><p>Sout</p><p>h W</p><p>est</p><p>2003 4,772</p><p>2012 3,209</p><p>2013 3,182</p><p>Sout</p><p>h Ea</p><p>st 2003 1,144</p><p>2012 620</p><p>2013 616</p><p>Wal</p><p>es</p><p>2003 2,909</p><p>2012 1,904</p><p>2013 1,895</p><p>Scotland</p><p>North</p><p>Midlands</p><p>Wal</p><p>es</p><p>South West</p><p>SouthEast</p></li><li><p>On-farm data</p><p>EU dairy producer numbers</p><p>12</p><p>In 2012/13, there were 922,000 dairy farmers in the 27 EU member states.</p><p>The population of dairy farmers in the EU-15 fell by 20.5% (91,300 farmers) between 2007/08 and 2012/13 approximately 50 farmers per day left the industry.</p><p>EU dairy producer numbers</p><p>Thousand dairy farmers</p><p>07/08 10/11 11/12 12/13</p><p>Austria 58.0 49.9 48.8 46.5</p><p>Belgium 13.0 10.7 10.3 9.8</p><p>Denmark 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.8</p><p>Finland 14.0 11.7 10.9 10.2</p><p>France 99.0 83.8 80.3 77.2</p><p>Germany 99.0 88.7 83.9 80.8</p><p>Greece 6.0 4.3 3.9 3.7</p><p>Ireland 21.0 19.0 19.2 18.5</p><p>Italy 46.0 40.4 38.8 37.4</p><p>Luxembourg 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8</p><p>Netherlands 21.0 19.4 18.9 18.5</p><p>Portugal 11.0 8.1 7.5 7.0</p><p>Spain 26.0 21.9 20.7 19.6</p><p>Sweden 8.0 6.1 5.8 5.4</p><p>UK 18.0 15.5 15.0 14.5</p><p>EU-15 445.1 384.3 368.6 353.8</p><p>Cyprus 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2</p><p>Czech Republic 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3</p><p>Estonia 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9</p></li><li><p>13</p><p>Source: Eurostat.</p><p>Thousand dairy farmers</p><p>07/08 10/11 11/12 12/13</p><p>Hungary 6.0 5.8 4.7 4.3</p><p>Latvia 20.0 12.2 11.6 11.2</p><p>Lithuania 69.0 46.6 44.4 41.3</p><p>Malta 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1</p><p>Poland 232.0 173.3 162.1 153.0</p><p>Slovakia 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8</p><p>Slovenia 10.0 8.9 8.5 8.2</p><p>EU-25 789.0 635.7 604.3 576.1</p><p>Bulgaria 109.0 18.1 13.8 10.8</p><p>Romania 663.0 385.0 368.0 335.0</p><p>EU-27 1,561.1 1,038.8 986.2 922.0</p><p>Source: Eurostat.</p><p>EU-15 dairy producer numbers</p><p>120</p><p>100</p><p>80</p><p>60</p><p>40</p><p>20</p><p>0</p><p> Tho</p><p>usan</p><p>d da</p><p>iry </p><p>prod</p><p>ucer</p><p>s</p><p>2012/132007/08</p><p>UK</p><p>Swed</p><p>enSp</p><p>ain</p><p>Portu</p><p>gal</p><p>Luxe</p><p>mbou</p><p>rgIta</p><p>ly</p><p>Nethe</p><p>rland</p><p>s</p><p>Irelan</p><p>d</p><p>Gree</p><p>ce</p><p>Germ</p><p>any</p><p>Franc</p><p>e</p><p>Finlan</p><p>d</p><p>Denm</p><p>ark</p><p>Belgi</p><p>um</p><p>Austr</p><p>ia</p></li><li><p>14</p><p>Change in number of dairy producers per country between 2011/12 and 2012/13 (%)</p><p>0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%</p><p>MaltaCyprus</p><p>NetherlandsSlovakia</p><p>Czech RepublicUK</p><p>LatviaIreland</p><p>ItalyGermany</p><p>FranceLuxembourg</p><p>SloveniaBelgium</p><p>DenmarkAustria</p><p>SpainPolandFinlandGreece</p><p>SwedenEstonia</p><p>LithuaniaPortugalHungaryRomaniaBulgaria</p><p>Source: Eurostat.</p></li><li><p>On-farm data</p><p>UK dairy cow numbers</p><p>15</p><p>While the number of cows in the UK fell slightly, down 1.7% in 2013 on 2012, the distribution of cows saw larger losses in both England and Northern Ireland.</p><p>Thousand head</p><p>2003 2012 2013</p><p>England 1,435 1,121 1,113</p><p>Wales 268 224 223</p><p>Scotland 198 163 167</p><p>Northern Ireland 290 285 280</p><p>UK 2,191 1,812 1,782</p><p>Note: Dairy cow numbers refer to dairy female cattle aged two years or more with offspring.</p><p>England and Wales figures have been sourced through CTS (cattle tracing system), Northern Ireland data has been sourced through APHIS, Scotland use survey data. CTS/APHIS uses breed of cattle to identify purpose. Therefore, cannot be used for a direct comparison with previous years.</p><p>Source: Defra, DARD, Welsh Government, SEERAD.</p><p>UK dairy cow numbers</p><p>2,250</p><p>2,000</p><p>1,750</p><p>1,500</p><p>1,250</p><p>1,000</p><p>750</p><p>500</p><p>250</p><p>0</p><p> Tho</p><p>usan</p><p>d he</p><p>ad</p><p>NorthernIreland</p><p>England Wales Scotland UK</p><p>2003 2012 2013</p><p>Source: Defra, DARD, Welsh Government, SEERAD.</p></li><li><p>16</p><p>The percentage reduction in cow numbers was less than the reduction in herds. Therefore, average herd size continued to increase between 2012 and 2013.</p><p>June census</p><p>2003 2012 2013</p><p>England 102 127 128</p><p>Wales 91 118 118</p><p>Scotland 125 157 185</p><p>Northern Ireland 66 107 104</p><p>UK 95 125 126</p><p>Note: Averages have been worked out according to figures found in the dairy farm numbers and dairy cow numbers tables. Scotland 2013 figures affected by change in holdings methodology.</p><p>Source: Defra, DARD, DHI, SEERAD, Welsh Government.</p><p>UK average herd size in 2013</p><p>200</p><p>180</p><p>160</p><p>140</p><p>120</p><p>100</p><p>80</p><p>60</p><p>40</p><p>20</p><p>0</p><p>Cow</p><p> hea</p><p>d/he</p><p>rd</p><p>NorthernIreland</p><p>England Wales Scotland UK</p><p>Source: Defra, DARD, DHI, SEERAD, Welsh Government.</p><p>On-farm data</p><p>UK average herd size</p></li><li><p>On-farm data</p><p>EU dairy cow numbers</p><p>17</p><p>The EU-15 had 76.9% of dairy cows in the EU-28 in 2013 with the UK herd representing 7.7% of the total EU-28 dairy cow population.</p><p>Thousand head</p><p>2003 2012* 2013*</p><p>UK 2,207 1,786 1,817</p><p>EU-15 19,217 17,703 18,050</p><p>EU-25 23,923 21,555 21,832</p><p>EU-27 24,285 23,012 23,314</p><p>EU-28 n/a 23,193 23,482</p><p>UK% (EU-28) n/a 7.7% 7.7%</p><p>*Provisional.</p><p>Note: Eurostat figures for the UK are different from the UK dairy cow numbers on page 15 since figures are collated from different sources.</p><p>Croatia data unavailable for 2003.</p><p>Source: Eurostat.</p></li><li><p>18</p><p>In 2013, the UK annual average milk yield rose by 93 litres/cow. The 2013 yield of 7,535/cow/annum was 1.2% higher than in 2012 and 13.8% more than in 2003.</p><p>Litres/cow/annum</p><p>2003 6,621</p><p>2010 7,273</p><p>2011 7,528</p><p>2012 7,442</p><p>2013* 7,535</p><p>*Provisional.</p><p>Source: Defra.</p><p>UK average milk yield</p><p>8,000</p><p>7,500</p><p>7,000</p><p>6,500</p><p>Litr</p><p>es/c</p><p>ow/a</p><p>nnum</p><p>04 06 08 10 1203 05 07 09 11 13**Provisional.</p><p>Source: Defra.</p><p>On-farm data</p><p>UK average milk yield</p></li><li><p>On-farm data</p><p>TB incidences in cattle in Great Britain</p><p>19</p><p>The number of cattle being slaughtered due to TB decreased by 13.6% (5,115) between 2012 and 2013.</p><p>Number of cattle slaughtered for TB in GB</p><p>2003 23,972</p><p>2011 34,238</p><p>2012* 37,734</p><p>2013* 32,619</p><p>*Provisional.</p><p>Note: Statistics above are for all cattle slaughtered due to TB not just dairy cattle.</p><p>Source: Defra.</p><p>Number of cattle slaughtered for TB in GB</p><p>40,000</p><p>35,000</p><p>30,000</p><p>25,000</p><p>20,000</p><p>15,000</p><p>10,000</p><p>5,000</p><p>004 06 08 10 12*03 05 07 09 11 13*</p><p>Num</p><p>ber </p><p>of c</p><p>attle</p><p>*Provisional.</p><p>Source: Defra.</p></li><li><p>20</p><p>Milkbench+ analysis has, again, identified and analysed three enterprise types:</p><p> Cows at grass. Predominantly grass-based and operating at lower yield levels</p><p> Composite. Maximum use of family labour and a mixed approach to feeding and housing </p><p> High-output cows. Generally housed for more of the year with more intensive use of major inputs.</p><p>DairyCos Milkbench+ Evidence Report 2014 highlights the following findings:</p><p> Due to difficult weather conditions and increasing feed prices, the average...</p></li></ul>