Economic Update- Malaysia 1q14 Bop

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Rosnani Rasul Rosnani_r@mna.com.my 03-22840580 1 Improving Current Account but Worsening Financial Account in 1Q14 Current Account Surplus - Percentage of GDP (1Q12-1Q14) Source: Bloomberg, M&A Securities Overall BOP 1Q14 Analysis Malaysias balance of payment (BOP) deficit worsened to RM17.2 billion in 1Q14 from RM2.6 billion in 4Q13 and against a surplus of RM4.0 billion a year ago. This worsening condition was chiefly caused by deteriorating financial account performance which registered accelerating capital outflow of RM37.5 billion against the deficit of RM9.7 billion in the last quarter and a surplus of RM1.1 billion a year ago. This matched the persistent selling pressure as witnessed in the equity market. Persistent selling pressure was also reflected in the performance of Ringgit which dropped to an average of RM3.29 per Dollar in 1Q14 against RM3.20 and RM3.16 in 4Q13 and 1Q13 respectively. The stronger surplus of current account performance which clocking in at higher surplus of RM19.8 billion in 1Q14 from RM14.8 billion in the previous quarter failed to offset against the onslaught of financial account deficit. Nonetheless, the rising current account surplus which jumped to 7.7% of GDP from 5.6% apiece in 4Q13 and 1Q13 respectively reflects Malaysias improving fundamentals. Thus, Malaysia has comfortably avoided a crisis that could jeopardize the outlook of Ringgit. Current Account 1Q14 Analysis Overall, almost all sub-segments in current account showed resilient performance led by wider surplus in goods account (1Q14: RM33.5 billion; 4Q13: RM33.3 billion), lower deficit in services account (1Q14: -RM2.7 billion; 4Q13: -RM4.1 billion), improving performance in primary income (1Q14: -RM6.4 billion; 4Q13: -RM10.0 billion). Only secondary income showed widening deficit after clocking in at RM4.5 billion in value against RM4.3 billion in 4Q13. The surplus in trade of goods was supported mainly by lower import which dropped to RM144.9 billion from RM148.3 billion (-2.2% q-o-q) last quarter against exports which eased to RM178.4 billion from RM181.7 billion (-1.8% q-o-q) recorded in 4Q13. Exports were mainly contributed by electrical & electronic products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petroleum products. The top three exports destinations were Singapore, The People's Republic of China and Japan. Meanwhile, the top three imports sources were The People's 7.3% 3.4% 3.5% 8.9% 5.6% 0.8% 4.0% 5.60% 7.70% 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%1Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q14% of GDP Economic Report: Malaysian 1Q14 BOP PP14767/09/2012(030761) M&A Securities Wednesday, May 21, 2014 2 Rosnani Rasul Research_r@mna.com.my 03-22840580 Economic Report: Malaysia 1Q14 BOP GDP Republic of China, Singapore and Japan. Resilient 1Q14 performance has pushed the nations current account surplus to reach 7.7% of GDP against, the highest seen since the last 5 quarters and the second highest since the last 9 quarters. Financial Account 1Q14 Analysis Hammered by rapid capital outflow matching the weakness in Ringgit, equity and bond markets, saw financial account deficit to widen to RM37.5 billion from RM9.7 billion, the single worst performance in a quarter beating the full year deficit in 2012 and 2013 of RM23.0 billion and RM15.8 billion respectively. Overall, it was portfolio investment that really put a dent in performance as there was a sharp reversal in investment to an outflow of RM14.6 billion from an inflow of RM3.9 billion in 4Q13. Financial derivatives along with other investment also had their fair share in pulling down the financial account condition as both clocked an outflow of RM13.3 billion (4Q13: -RM769 million) and RM1.3 billion (4Q13: RM393 million) respectively. Although the cut down in quantitative easing measures in the US can be blamed on this along with the expectation of tightening in policy rates there but the severity of the selling pressure has caught us off guard. Looking at the relatively resilient Ringgit, bond and equity market during the quarter under analysis, suffice to say that it was the BNM (for Ringgit) and the local institutional investors that have been supportive of the market. Otherwise, Ringgit could tumbled below RM3.30 per Dollar or lower. The bonds market performance also mirrored the rapid capital outflow as yield, as in MGS 10-year, tumbled by 25 basis point to 4.14% average in 1Q14 against 3.89% average in 4Q13. FDI 1Q14 Analysis Malaysias foreign direct investment (FDI) started 1Q14 on a slow momentum with a mere RM7 billion in investment against RM11.8 billion and RM8.9 billion received in 4Q13 and 1Q13 respectively. Although this can be described as slow but we are unperturbed as we believe countries that are rich in excess capital like the US, Eurozone and Japan will find their way into relatively peaceful, politically stable and strong workforce like Malaysia. These strong qualities are unlike neighboring countries like Thailand which is currently under Marshall Law or Indonesia which has sizeable unskilled workers. More importantly, the government will be more selective in FDI approval as it prefers to get high quality and high impact industry to invest here and not merely getting the investors to open their manufacturing factory here only to give jobs to the foreigners like the Indonesians and Bangladeshis. Malaysia today is aiming for more quality FDI and the slowdown in 1Q14 is not an issue. Outlook on BOP It is granted that financial account got hammered in 1Q14 tempered by rapid capital outflow in portfolio and financial derivatives products. We, for one, do not think that this will last given that there has been obvious reversal of trend seen in equity market from April till now. Based on available resources, our data show that foreign institutional investors have been net sellers in 1Q14 of RM5.3 billion but from April till May were net buyers of almost RM2 billion. Hence, we expect Malaysias financial account to improve in 2Q14. 3 Rosnani Rasul Research_r@mna.com.my 03-22840580 Economic Report: Malaysia 1Q14 BOP GDP Reversal in capital outflow would be more pronounced now that BNM has hinted that policy rates could be adjusted soon given the financial imbalance in the system. That would make investing in Malaysia an attractive proposition. Added with the steady performance expected from current account as we expect export momentum to remain robust, we expect all is well in Malaysias BOP. Source: Bloomberg, DOS, M&A Securities BOP RM million 2012 2013 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Merchandise Balance -Goods 125,190 108,230 36,004 30,139 25,509 33,537 28,048 19,617 27,227 33,338 33,562 -Services -16,210 -16,693 -5,423 -4,726 -3,275 -2,787 -2,590 -5,156 -4,832 -4,115 -2,711 -Primary Income -36,050 -34,126 -8,653 -12,806 -9,032 -5,560 -8,037 -8,092 -7,969 -10,028 -6,449 -Secondary Income -18,469 -17,504 -5,410 -4,650 -4,878 -3,531 -4,210 -4,533 -4,399 -4,361 -4,560 Current Account 54,460 39,907 16,519 7,958 8,324 21,659 13,211 1,836 10,027 14,834 19,842 Capital Account 241 -21 -136 -6 -10 393 -3 -4 5 -19 -2 Financial Account -23,014 -15,807 -10,368 6,484 -8,959 -10,171 1,184 4,384 -11,659 -9,715 -37,577 -Direct investment -Portfolio investment -24,415 -5,451 -9,454 4,646 -1,308 -18,299 -2,757 -8,295 1,615 3,986 -14,621 -Financial derivatives 63,859 -3,041 25,099 -4,961 33,338 10,384 3,917 3,277 -9,466 -769 -13,397 -Other investment 972 -253 -20 992 -64 64 211 -1,421 564 393 -1,487 -Error and Omissions -27,814 -9,431 -13,235 -1,739 -6,881 -5,958 -10,349 -4,698 13,391 -7,775 444 BOP 3,873 14,649 -7,221 12,697 -7,526 5,923 4,043 1,518 11,763 -2,675 -17,293 Current Account % GDP 5.8% 4.0% 7.3% 3.4% 3.5% 8.9% 5.6% 0.8% 4.0% 5.6% 7.7% Malaysia Current Account Balance (1Q12-1Q14) Malaysia Financial Account Balance (1Q12-1Q14) 16,519 7,958 8,324 21,659 13,211 1,836 10,027 14,834 19,842 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0001Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q14RM million -10,368 6,484 -8,959 -10,171 1,184 4,384 -11,659 -9,715 -37,577 -40,000-35,000-30,000-25,000-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,0001Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q14RM million 4 Rosnani Rasul Research_r@mna.com.my 03-22840580 Economic Report: Malaysia 1Q14 BOP GDP Malaysia Trade Balance (Mar 2013-Mar 2014) Source: Bloomberg, DOS, M&A Securities -100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%024681012Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Growth m-o-m (%) RM billion Surplus (RHS) Growth m-o-m (LHS)Malaysia Balance of Payment (1Q12-1Q14) Malaysia FDI Trend (1Q12-1Q14) Malaysia Export Growth (Mac 2013-Mac 2014) Malaysia Import Growth (Mac 2013-Mac 2014) -7,221 12,697 -7,526 5,923 4,043 1,518 11,763 -2,675 -17,293 -20,000-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,0001Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q14RM million 7.47 6.08 9.61 5.90 8.95 8.77 9.08 11.80 7.00 -60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.001Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q14FDI (LHS) Q-o-Q Growth (RHS)-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14Y-o-Y (LHS) M-o-M (RHS)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14Y-o-Y (LHS) M-o-M (RHS)5 Rosnani Rasul Research_r@mna.com.my 03-22840580 Economic Report: Malaysia 1Q14 BOP GDP M&A Securities STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY Share price is expected to be +10% over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY Share price is expected to be +10% within 3-months due to positive newsflow. HOLD Share price is expected to be between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. SELL Share price is expected to be -10% over the next 12 months. SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT The sector is expected to outperform the FBM KLCI over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL The sector is expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT The sector is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI over the next 12 months. DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by M&A SECURITIES SDN BHD. Readers should be fully aware that this report is for informational purposes only and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information or opinion contained herein. The recommendation and opinion are based on information obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. 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