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LED Industry Overview , LED Supply Side Forecast , LED Demand Side Forecast , Competitions Between LED Industry

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  • 19 November 2010| Page 1

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Industry

    Outlook in 2011

    Roger Chu

    02 Nov. 2010

  • 19 November 2010| Page 2

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Our Research Department

    Intelligence

    (DRAM, Flash) (Component, Panel, S/I) (LED, Applications) (Solar,Battery)

  • 19 November 2010| Page 3

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    About LEDinside

    Our Page view reaches 3.5 M per month

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    WWW.LEDinside.com

  • 19 November 2010| Page 4

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LEDinside Market

    Intelligence Service

    Standard Price: 3,000 USD

    Silver Member Service

    Standard Price: 12,000 USD

    Gold Member Service

    By Case

    Subject Report

  • 19 November 2010| Page 5

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Standard Price: USD 3,000

    Update Frequency: Quarterly

    Report Format: PDF & Excel

    LEDinside-Silver Member Service

    Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL)

    Netbook/Notebook Application

    Mobile Backlight Application

    Large-sized Backlight (TV/Monitor) Application

    Lighting (High Power) Application

    Quarterly Market Trend (PDF)

    Lighting Market Overview and Forecast

    Backlight Market Overview and Forecast

    Real-time Market Update (PDF)

    Show Reports

    Product Applications

    Technology Development

    Others

    Back

  • 19 November 2010| Page 6

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Standard Price: 12,000 USD

    Update Frequency: Quarterly

    Report format: Excel

    Gold Member Service

    Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary

    WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast(Annual)

    Worldwide LED Demand Forecast

    Mobile Application

    Medium-Large Display Backlight Application

    Lighting Application Forecast

    Automotive Lighting Application Forecast

    Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast

    Other Application Forecast

    Worldwide LED Supply Forecast

    Equipment Maker

    Chip Maker

    Pkg Maker

    Cost Analysis Comapre to Traditional Light Source

    Price Forecast in White LED

    Mobile ,NB, Monitor,TV, Lighting Application

  • 19 November 2010| Page 7

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Subject Report

    Number of LED Chip Enterprises by Year

    38

    1317 17

    2026 29

    3238

    46

    64

    75

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    1H

    10

    Ente

    rprise N

    um

    ber

  • 19 November 2010| Page 8

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Outline

    1) LED Industry Overview

    2) LED Supply Side Forecast

    3) LED Demand Side Forecast

    4) Competitions Between LED Industry

  • 19 November 2010| Page 9

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Industry Overview

  • 19 November 2010| Page 10

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Worldwide LED Revenue Ranking

    USA

    10%

    Europe

    12%

    Japan

    26%Korea

    23%

    Taiwan

    19%

    China

    10%

    WW LED Revenue in 2010 : $12.7 bn Breakdown By Region

    USA

    9%Europe

    13%

    Japan

    27%Korea

    24%

    Taiwan

    21%

    China

    6%

    HB LED Revenue in 2010 : $8.6 bn Breakdown By Region

  • 19 November 2010| Page 11

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    0

    4,000

    8,000

    12,000

    16,000

    20,000

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Mobile appliance Large display backlight

    Lighting Automotive

    Signs & Signal Other

    Worldwide HB LED Market Forecast

    2010~2014 CAGR 17%

    HB LED Market Forecast (2010~2014)HB LED Market By Application (2010)

    HB LED Market By Application (2014)

    Mobile

    appliance

    16%

    Large display

    backlight

    33%Lighting

    21%

    Automotive

    11%

    Signs &

    Signal

    10%

    Other

    9%

    Mobile

    appliance

    5%

    Large display

    backlight

    29%

    Lighting

    43%

    Automotive

    11%

    Signs &

    Signal

    7%

    Other

    5%

  • 19 November 2010| Page 12

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Supply Side Forecast

  • 19 November 2010| Page 13

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Background of MOCVD Equipment Subsidy Policies in China

    Self-sufficiency rate of Chinas chip enterprises is quite low

    LED demand in China surged. Self-sufficiency rate of Chinas LED chips is only 47%. Hence, developing epitaxial wafer / chip technology and increasing self-sufficiency rate of LED chips are the

    major objectives in LED development for Chinas government.

    Bright future in LED application market

    Except for a great potential in the general lighting market, new LED applications are discovered.

    Official performance index

    As the green energy industry is greatly supported by the China government, the LED industry is seen

    as an important achievement.

    By providing investment incentive policies, LED chip enterprises which have advanced technological

    know-how are expected to set up plants in China. (Yangzhou-Forepi), other local governments have

    also attracted the investment of leading LED chip manufacturers.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 14

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

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    Taiwans Enterprises Gain Subsidies and Close Interaction

    Investor Company Type Notes

    Epistar

    Changzhou Jingpin Taiwan-capital

    Xiamen Epi-sky Taiwan-capital

    Dalian Jingtian China-Taiwan joint ventureJVS with Dalian Zhongjian

    and Shanxi Guangyu

    Shandong Guanquan Taiwan-capital JVS with UMC

    Unilite Dongguan Unilite Taiwan-capital

    Formosa

    EpitaxyJiangsu Canyang

    China-Taiwan joint

    venture

    JVS with AmTran, Unity

    and etc

    Genesis Dongguan Jingrui Taiwan-capital

    Kunshan Genesis Taiwan-capital

    Arima Shanxi Changzhi ArimaChina-Taiwan joint

    venture

    Opto tech Ningbo Opto tech Taiwan-capital

    Powerchip Xuzhou Jingwang Taiwan-capital

    Walsin

    LihwaXian Walsin Lihwa Taiwan-capital

    TyntekWuhan Yuanmao

    TBC (project by Fuzhou Tyntek) Taiwan-capital

    Bright LED

    ElectronicsDongguan Gaohui

    China-Taiwan joint

    venture

    AUO Lextar Taiwan-capital

    Long term:

    50 MOCVD units

    Changzhou Jingpin:

    30 MOCVD units

    Shandong Guanquan :

    Over 10 MOCVD units

    Long term:

    50 MOCVD units

    Long term:

    100 MOCVD units

    Long term:

    100 MOCVD units

    2011 plan:

    50 MOCVD units

  • 19 November 2010| Page 15

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Greatest Growth on LED Capacities in China

    700 MOCVD sets are planed in 2010.

    MOCVD sets in 1H10 were in S.Korea and Taiwan.

    MOCVD sets plan to be installed in China in 2H10.

    MOCVD total installation volume (In Gan Base) MOCVD installation volume in 2010

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Korea

    Europe

    US

    Japan

    China

    Taiwan

    Taiwan

    32%

    China

    26%

    Japan

    7%

    US

    3%

    Europe

    1%

    Korea

    31%

  • 19 November 2010| Page 16

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Demand Side Forecast-Backlight Market

  • 19 November 2010| Page 17

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

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    LED Application Trend for TV Backlight, 42

    - Luminous improvement and cost reduction continue to drive the market growth.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 18

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Thick or Thin Films? Which Conducts TV Backlight ?

    Direct Type

    Edge Type

    Diffuser Plate

    Reflector

    Optical Film

    LCD Panel

    Reflector

    Optical Film

    LGP

    2H10~1H11

    LED PKG 32*32*1.65mm

    32*28(Sharp)

    Diffuser 6.0t

    LCM 20~25mm

    2H09-