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  • 19 November 2010| Page 1

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Industry

    Outlook in 2011

    Roger Chu

    02 Nov. 2010

  • 19 November 2010| Page 2

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Our Research Department

    Intelligence

    (DRAM, Flash) (Component, Panel, S/I) (LED, Applications) (Solar,Battery)

  • 19 November 2010| Page 3

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    About LEDinside

    Our Page view reaches 3.5 M per month

    0

    500,000

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    WWW.LEDinside.com

  • 19 November 2010| Page 4

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

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    LEDinside Market

    Intelligence Service

    Standard Price: 3,000 USD

    Silver Member Service

    Standard Price: 12,000 USD

    Gold Member Service

    By Case

    Subject Report

  • 19 November 2010| Page 5

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Standard Price: USD 3,000

    Update Frequency: Quarterly

    Report Format: PDF & Excel

    LEDinside-Silver Member Service

    Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL)

    Netbook/Notebook Application

    Mobile Backlight Application

    Large-sized Backlight (TV/Monitor) Application

    Lighting (High Power) Application

    Quarterly Market Trend (PDF)

    Lighting Market Overview and Forecast

    Backlight Market Overview and Forecast

    Real-time Market Update (PDF)

    Show Reports

    Product Applications

    Technology Development

    Others

    Back

  • 19 November 2010| Page 6

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Standard Price: 12,000 USD

    Update Frequency: Quarterly

    Report format: Excel

    Gold Member Service

    Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary

    WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast(Annual)

    Worldwide LED Demand Forecast

    Mobile Application

    Medium-Large Display Backlight Application

    Lighting Application Forecast

    Automotive Lighting Application Forecast

    Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast

    Other Application Forecast

    Worldwide LED Supply Forecast

    Equipment Maker

    Chip Maker

    Pkg Maker

    Cost Analysis Comapre to Traditional Light Source

    Price Forecast in White LED

    Mobile ,NB, Monitor,TV, Lighting Application

  • 19 November 2010| Page 7

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Subject Report

    Number of LED Chip Enterprises by Year

    38

    1317 17

    2026 29

    3238

    46

    64

    75

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    1H

    10

    Ente

    rprise N

    um

    ber

  • 19 November 2010| Page 8

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Outline

    1) LED Industry Overview

    2) LED Supply Side Forecast

    3) LED Demand Side Forecast

    4) Competitions Between LED Industry

  • 19 November 2010| Page 9

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Industry Overview

  • 19 November 2010| Page 10

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Worldwide LED Revenue Ranking

    USA

    10%

    Europe

    12%

    Japan

    26%Korea

    23%

    Taiwan

    19%

    China

    10%

    WW LED Revenue in 2010 : $12.7 bn Breakdown By Region

    USA

    9%Europe

    13%

    Japan

    27%Korea

    24%

    Taiwan

    21%

    China

    6%

    HB LED Revenue in 2010 : $8.6 bn Breakdown By Region

  • 19 November 2010| Page 11

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    0

    4,000

    8,000

    12,000

    16,000

    20,000

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Mobile appliance Large display backlight

    Lighting Automotive

    Signs & Signal Other

    Worldwide HB LED Market Forecast

    2010~2014 CAGR 17%

    HB LED Market Forecast (2010~2014)HB LED Market By Application (2010)

    HB LED Market By Application (2014)

    Mobile

    appliance

    16%

    Large display

    backlight

    33%Lighting

    21%

    Automotive

    11%

    Signs &

    Signal

    10%

    Other

    9%

    Mobile

    appliance

    5%

    Large display

    backlight

    29%

    Lighting

    43%

    Automotive

    11%

    Signs &

    Signal

    7%

    Other

    5%

  • 19 November 2010| Page 12

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Supply Side Forecast

  • 19 November 2010| Page 13

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Background of MOCVD Equipment Subsidy Policies in China

    Self-sufficiency rate of Chinas chip enterprises is quite low

    LED demand in China surged. Self-sufficiency rate of Chinas LED chips is only 47%. Hence, developing epitaxial wafer / chip technology and increasing self-sufficiency rate of LED chips are the

    major objectives in LED development for Chinas government.

    Bright future in LED application market

    Except for a great potential in the general lighting market, new LED applications are discovered.

    Official performance index

    As the green energy industry is greatly supported by the China government, the LED industry is seen

    as an important achievement.

    By providing investment incentive policies, LED chip enterprises which have advanced technological

    know-how are expected to set up plants in China. (Yangzhou-Forepi), other local governments have

    also attracted the investment of leading LED chip manufacturers.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 14

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Taiwans Enterprises Gain Subsidies and Close Interaction

    Investor Company Type Notes

    Epistar

    Changzhou Jingpin Taiwan-capital

    Xiamen Epi-sky Taiwan-capital

    Dalian Jingtian China-Taiwan joint ventureJVS with Dalian Zhongjian

    and Shanxi Guangyu

    Shandong Guanquan Taiwan-capital JVS with UMC

    Unilite Dongguan Unilite Taiwan-capital

    Formosa

    EpitaxyJiangsu Canyang

    China-Taiwan joint

    venture

    JVS with AmTran, Unity

    and etc

    Genesis Dongguan Jingrui Taiwan-capital

    Kunshan Genesis Taiwan-capital

    Arima Shanxi Changzhi ArimaChina-Taiwan joint

    venture

    Opto tech Ningbo Opto tech Taiwan-capital

    Powerchip Xuzhou Jingwang Taiwan-capital

    Walsin

    LihwaXian Walsin Lihwa Taiwan-capital

    TyntekWuhan Yuanmao

    TBC (project by Fuzhou Tyntek) Taiwan-capital

    Bright LED

    ElectronicsDongguan Gaohui

    China-Taiwan joint

    venture

    AUO Lextar Taiwan-capital

    Long term:

    50 MOCVD units

    Changzhou Jingpin:

    30 MOCVD units

    Shandong Guanquan :

    Over 10 MOCVD units

    Long term:

    50 MOCVD units

    Long term:

    100 MOCVD units

    Long term:

    100 MOCVD units

    2011 plan:

    50 MOCVD units

  • 19 November 2010| Page 15

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Greatest Growth on LED Capacities in China

    700 MOCVD sets are planed in 2010.

    MOCVD sets in 1H10 were in S.Korea and Taiwan.

    MOCVD sets plan to be installed in China in 2H10.

    MOCVD total installation volume (In Gan Base) MOCVD installation volume in 2010

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Korea

    Europe

    US

    Japan

    China

    Taiwan

    Taiwan

    32%

    China

    26%

    Japan

    7%

    US

    3%

    Europe

    1%

    Korea

    31%

  • 19 November 2010| Page 16

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Demand Side Forecast-Backlight Market

  • 19 November 2010| Page 17

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Application Trend for TV Backlight, 42

    - Luminous improvement and cost reduction continue to drive the market growth.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 18

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Thick or Thin Films? Which Conducts TV Backlight ?

    Direct Type

    Edge Type

    Diffuser Plate

    Reflector

    Optical Film

    LCD Panel

    Reflector

    Optical Film

    LGP

    2H10~1H11

    LED PKG 32*32*1.65mm

    32*28(Sharp)

    Diffuser 6.0t

    LCM 20~25mm

    2H09-

    2H10

    2011

    LED PKG 5630

    6046

    5630/5620

    4014/7020

    LGP 3.0~3.5t 2.0~2.5t

    LCM 10mm 9 mm

  • 19 November 2010| Page 19

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Backlight Application Forecast

    15%, and 18% respectively for LCD monitor and LCDTV in 2010

    Driven by further cost and green consciousness, the penetration rate for LCD Monitor and LCD TV are projected to reach 55% and 43% respectively for 2011.

    Edge-lit backlight TV is dominating the market, while direct-lit backlight is slowly emerging.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 20

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Demand Side Forecast-Lighting Market

  • 19 November 2010| Page 21

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Overview of LED Lighting Market in 2010

    Architectural

    45%

    Replacement

    14%

    Retail display

    12%

    Commercial/indust

    rial

    11%

    Outdoor area

    9%

    Consumer

    portable

    4%

    Entertainment

    2%Residential

    1%

    Other

    2%

    The HB LED for Lighting ,Market size in 2010 is $1.8 bn, the LED usage volume reaches 7.5bn pcs.

    High Power LED accounts for 76%, viewed from package type.

    The greatest application segment is the architectural lighting, but the output value of the main lighting is still at low level.

    HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting

    -By Pkg Type HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting

    -By Application

  • 19 November 2010| Page 22

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Lighting Application Forecast

    The LED lighting market is projected to grow from US$1,017M in 2009 to US$8,175M in 2014, at CAGR of 52%.

    The highest growth rate will be coming from the replacement lamp, at CAGR of 92%, and we have witnessed smooth adoption in Japan market.

    The outdoor lighting will be evolving regularly as technology advance, though there are some aggressive expectation, the projected CAGR is 43%.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 23

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Replacement-Momentum of LED light bulbs decreased in Japan

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    LED CFL Incandescent

    .(2010105.)

    High Power LED Price for per klm

    20 18

    16 15

    14 12 10.90

    9.22 8.44 7.78 7.22 7.08 6.846.16

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10

    USD

    Price High Price Low

    LED Bulb penetration rate in Japan

  • 19 November 2010| Page 24

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Replacement-LED Light Bulb Is Emerging in the Long Term

    LED bulb is projected to growth from less then 2% light bulb market this year to more than 10% by

    2013.Driven by performance improvement, cost reduction and government policy, LED bulb is

    emerging aggressively.

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Incandescent Lamp Fluorescent Lamp

    LED Lamp Others

    LED Lamp Penetration Rate

    0.00

    5.00

    10.00

    15.00

    20.00

    25.00

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    LED AC/DC Driver Optics Heat Sink

    Housing E27 Socket Others

    3X

    Demand is driven by cost reduction LED bulb is emerging in the long term

    LED Bulb

    Retail Price

    CFL Bulb

  • 19 November 2010| Page 25

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    China40%

    Taiwan1%USA

    16%

    Europe16%

    Japan10%

    Others18%

    Outdoor Lighting LED Streetlights Yet To Be Supported By Policies

    China: Total LED streetlights installation volume in 2009 was around 250K, 287K in 2010.

    Global LED streetlight installations in 2009 amounted to about 610 K units.

    LED streetlight installation is estimated to reach 743 K units by 2010.

    Source: LEDinside

    Global Streetlight Installation Volume LED streetlights market shares in 2010

    Source: LEDinside

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    unit:K

    Quantity of newly installed LED streetlights

  • 19 November 2010| Page 26

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Competitions Between LED Industry

  • 19 November 2010| Page 27

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Supply Chain for LED Backlight TV

    Korean LED vendors enjoy more stable adoptive application from well implemented vertical integration.

    More challenges for less vertical integrated Japan and Taiwan vendors on resource alignment and cost pressure.

  • 19 November 2010| Page 28

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    USA

    LED Lighting Competitive Landscape

    Chip

    LEDs

    Bulb

    EU

    Module

    Osra

    m

    System

    Traditional

    lluminaire co.

    Zum

    tobel

    Philip

    s

    GE

    Cooper

    Panasonic

    Toshib

    a

    NE

    C

    Everlig

    h

    t

    Delta

    Japan Korea TWN

    Cre

    e

    Sam

    sung L

    ED

    LG

    Innote

    k

    Seoul S

    em

    iconducto

    r

    Lexta

    r(A

    UO

    )

    CM

    I

    Epistar

    Forepi

    Nuventix

    Acuity

    Okam

    ura

    Sharp

    Citiz

    en

    Rohm

    TG

    Nic

    hia

    Kum

    ho

    TR

    ILU

    X

    iGuzzin

    i

    Schre

    der

    Hubbell

    LED focused co.

    Edis

    on

    Oth

    ers

    BridgeLux

    China

    Mid

    ea

    (

    )

    Lite

    On

    Lots companies are participating in LED luminaire globally Many companies are vertically integrated from chip to luminaire system

    Kic

    hle

    r

    NV

    C(

    )

    Hem

    ligh

    ting

    (

    )

    Ya

    min

    g(

    )

  • 19 November 2010| Page 29

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    LED Policies Drive the Worldwide LED Market

    USA:

    1. DOE Next Generation Lighting Initiative (NGLI) to support the R&D of SSL

    2. 50 million USD from 2007-2013

    3. Total 350 million USD for R&D investment in SSL

    4. Reach 219 lm/w, 1000 lm /1USD in 2020

    (March 2010)

    TW: 83 million USD investment

    in LED for five years (2010-2015)

    Source: LEDinside (October 2010)

    China:

    1. 12th Five-Year plan focus on green energy

    2. Industry scale > 500 B RMB in 2015

    3. LED Chip Self-sufficiency rate 70% in 2015.

    4. 2-3 large scale LED chip companies in 2015.

    5. 3-5 leading SSL application companies in 2015.

    Japan: 2.90 billion USD

    is requested for

    promoting the LED

    market

    (June 2010)

    Korea: 20 million

    USD for LED(2011)

  • 19 November 2010| Page 30

    LED Industry Outlook in 2011

    ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION.

    Thank You for Your Attention!

    TrendForce/ LEDinside

    http://www.ledinside.com

    -----------------------------------------

    Joanne Wu

    Research Assistant

    joannewu@trendforce.com

    TrendForce/ LEDinside

    http://www.ledinside.com

    -----------------------------------------

    Roger ChuResearch Director

    rogerchu@ledinside.com

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