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• PENNINGTVTT

IDENTIFIERING OCH ANALYS AV TILLMPADE METODER FR ATT MTA

PENNINGTVTT

VT 2014:CE22

Magisteruppsats i fretagsekonomi fr civilekonomexamen

• I

Frord

Vi vill hr passa p att rikta ett stort tack till Lars Korsell och Daniel Vesterhav p

Brottsfrebyggande rdet fr era kommentarer och synpunkter. Vi vill ven tacka vr

handledare Kjell Johansson fr all tid du lagt ner och alla kommentarer du gett oss. Slutligen

vill vi ven tacka vra opponenter och andra klasskamrater som bidragit med tips och rd.

Bors den 8 juni 2014

• II

Svensk titel: Penningtvtt Identifiering och analys av tillmpade metoder fr att mta penningtvtt

Engelsk titel: Money laundering Identification and analysis of the methods applied to measure money laundering

Utgivningsr: 2014

Handledare: Kjell Johansson

Abstract

Money laundering is a field that, in recent years, has received a lot of attention. New laws and

regulations have been introduced with the aim of preventing and combating money

laundering. To estimate the size of the problem, a number of estimates have been calculated

using different methods. In this paper, we have decided to focus on the methods used to

calculate the estimates because there are indications to suggest that the estimates calculated

are rarely criticized.

The purpose of this paper is to examine and compare three of the most common methods for

calculating the size of money laundering. The methods we have chosen are the Walker model,

Zdanowicz methods of trade-based money laundering and a two-sector model. The study is

qualitative in nature with an inductive approach where empirical data consists of the selected

methods.

To make a precise measurement of the size of money laundering is not possible, but it is

instead about making the best estimate possible. The results of our study show that the three

methods are quite different from one another. Deciding which one is best depends on the

context, which is important to keep in mind while taking cognizance of the estimates

calculated. Zdanowicz method, for example, does not measure the total amount of money

laundering for a country. It is, however, the best method for measuring the capital movement

in trade between countries. Of the three methods we have addressed in our study, the Walker

model is the most suitable for calculating money laundering globally, but it has a weakness in

that it largely relies on expert knowledge and experience. The two-sector model is based on

microeconomic theory and is believed to have a higher reliability than the Walker model, but

is not globally applicable in the same way as the Walker model. The two-sector model does

not measure how much money is laundered between countries like the other two methods.

This essay is written in Swedish.

Keywords: Money laundering, Walker model, Two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, Trade-based money laundering

• III

Sammanfattning

Penningtvtt r ett mne som under de senaste ren ftt mycket uppmrksamhet. Nya lagar

och regleringar med mlsttningen att frebygga och bekmpa penningtvtt har infrts. Fr att

uppskatta problemets storlek har ett flertal estimat berknats med hjlp av olika metoder. I

denna uppsats har vi valt att fokusera p de metoder som anvnds fr att berkna estimat, d

det finns tecken som tyder p att estimaten som berknas sllan utstts fr kritik.

Syftet med uppsatsen har varit att underska och jmfra tre av de idag vanligaste metoderna

fr att berkna penningtvttens storlek. De vanligaste modellerna r Walkermodellen,

Zdanowicz metoder fr handelsbaserad penningtvtt och en tv-sektor modell vilka har

utgjort fokus i denna studie. Studien r av kvalitativ karaktr med en induktiv ansats dr

empirin bestr av de utvalda metoderna.

Att gra en exakt mtning av storleken p penningtvtten r naturligtvis inte mjligt, utan det

handlar istllet om att gra en s bra uppskattning som mjligt. Resultatet av vr

underskning visar att de tre metoderna skiljer sig helt frn varandra. Vilken metod som r

lmpligast beror p sammanhanget, vilket r viktigt att ha i tanke nr ngon tar del av de

estimat som berknats. Zdanowicz metod mter exempelvis inte total penningtvtt fr ett

land, men r samtidigt den som bst mter kapitalfrflyttning vid handel mellan lnder. Av de

tre metoder vi tagit upp i vr underskning r Walkermodellen den som lmpar sig bst fr att

berkna penningtvtten globalt, men den har en svaghet i att den till stor del frlitar sig p

experters kunskaper och erfarenheter. Tv-sektor modellen har sin utgngspunkt i

mikroekonomisk teori och fr anses ha en hgre reliabilitet n Walkermodellen, men gr dock

inte att tillmpa globalt p samma stt som Walkermodellen. Tv-sektormodellen mter heller

inte hur mycket pengar som tvttas mellan lnder s som de andra tv metoderna gr.

Nyckelord: Penningtvtt, Walkermodellen, Tv-sektor modell, Handelsbaserad penningtvtt

• IV

Innehllsfrteckning

1. Inledning .......................................................................................................................................... - 1 -

1.1 Bakgrund ................................................................................................................................... - 1 -

1.2 Problemdiskussion ..................................................................................................................... - 3 -

1.3 Formulering av forskningsfrgor ............................................................................................... - 4 -

1.4 Syfte .......................................................................................................................................... - 4 -

1.5 Avgrnsningar ........................................................................................................................... - 5 -

1.6 mnets relevans ........................................................................................................................ - 5 -

1.7 Disposition................................................................................................................................. - 5 -

2 Metod ............................................................................................................................................... - 6 -

2.1 Inledning .................................................................................................................................... - 6 -

2.2 Genomfrandet av studien ......................................................................................................... - 6 -

2.3 Vetenskapligt synstt ................................................................................................................. - 6 -

2.4 Underskningsansats ................................................................................................................. - 7 -

2.5 Forskningsansats ....................................................................................................................... - 8 -

2.6 Datainsamling ............................................................................................................................ - 8 -

2.7 Urval .......................................................................................................................................... - 9 -

2.8 Giltighetsansprk ..................................................................................................................... - 10 -

2.9 Kllkritik ................................................................................................................................. - 11 -

2.9.1 Vetenskapliga artiklar ....................................................................................................... - 11 -

2.9.2 Offentliga dokument ......................................................................................................... - 11 -

2.9.3 Litteratur ........................................................................................................................... - 12 -

3. Referensram................................................................................................................................... - 13 -

3.1 Inledning .................................................................................................................................. - 13 -

3.2 Vad menas med penningtvtt?................................................................................................. - 13 -

3.3 Varfr tvttas pengar? ............................................................................................................. - 14 -

3.4 Hur tvttas pengar? .................................................................................................................. - 14 -

3.4.1 Placering ........................................................................................................................... - 14 -

3.4.2 Skiktning .......................................................................................................................... - 14 -

3.4.3 Integrering ........................................................................................................................ - 14 -

3.4.4 Metoder fr att tvtta pengar ............................................................................................ - 15 -

3.6 Tillvgagngsstt fr att mta penningtvtt ............................................................................ - 17 -

3.6.1 Flt- och fallstudier........................................................................................................... - 17 -

3.6.2 Enkter och intervjuer ...................................................................................................... - 17 -

• V

3.6.3 Misstnksamma och avvikande transaktioner som rapporteras ........................................ - 18 -

3.6.4 Statistiska avvikelser ........................................................................................................ - 18 -

3.6.5 Teoribaserade modeller .................................................................................................... - 19 -

4. Empiri ............................................................................................................................................ - 20 -

4.1 Tv-sektor modellen ................................................................................................................ - 20 -

4.1.1 Hushll .............................................................................................................................. - 20 -

4.1.2 Fretag .............................................................................................................................. - 22 -

4.1.3 Hushllens frstahandsvillkor .......................................................................................... - 23 -

4.1.4 Legala fretagens frstahandsvillkor................................................................................ - 23 -

4.1.5 Penningtvtt ...................................................................................................................... - 24 -

4.1.6 Parametrar ........................................................................................................................ - 25 -

4.2 Walkermodellen ...................................................................................................................... - 26 -

4.3 Zdanowicz handelsbaserade metoder ...................................................................................... - 30 -

4.3.1 Inledning ........................................................................................................................... - 30 -

4.3.2 Metod I ............................................................................................................................. - 32 -

4.3.3 Metod II ............................................................................................................................ - 33 -

4.3.4 Metod III ........................................................................................................................... - 33 -

4.3.5 Metod IV .......................................................................................................................... - 34 -

5 Analys ............................................................................................................................................. - 37 -

5.1 Inledning .................................................................................................................................. - 37 -

5.2 Tv-sektor modellen ................................................................................................................ - 37 -

5.2.1 Modellens utformning ...................................................................................................... - 37 -

5.2.2 Vad fngar modellen upp? ................................................................................................ - 37 -

5.3 Walkermodellen ...................................................................................................................... - 38 -

5.3.1 Modellens utformning ...................................................................................................... - 38 -

5.3.2 Vad fngar modellen upp? ................................................................................................ - 39 -

5.4 Zdanowicz handelsbaserade metoder ...................................................................................... - 40 -

5.4.1 Modellens utformning ...................................................................................................... - 40 -

5.4.2 Vad fngar modellen upp? ................................................................................................ - 40 -

6 Slutsats ........................................................................................................................................... - 42 -

6.1 Inledning .................................................................................................................................. - 42 -

6.1.1 Tv-sektor modellen ......................................................................................................... - 42 -

6.1.2 Walkermodellen ............................................................................................................... - 42 -

6.1.3 Zdanowicz metoder .......................................................................................................... - 43 -

6.1.4 P vilka stt kan dessa metoder appliceras p Sverige? ................................................... - 43 -

7 Avslutning ........................