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  • IPSTippingPoint

    3Com Confidential

    Illegal file sharingPeer to peerBuffer OverflowDoS, SYN FlodBackOrifice-31337

    3Com Confidential


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    3Com Confidential

    TippingPointIPSTipping Point Infonetic ,Cisco, Juniper, ISS, McAfee, Market Share #1 ( 33%) .Source: Infonetics Research Network Intrusion Prevention Market OutlookMay 17, 2006








    CY05 Worldwide Dedicated IPS Appliance Revenue Market Share

    Whats Inside

    Analyst contact:Jeff Wilson408.583.3337jeff@infonetics.com

    Network Intrusion Prevention Market Outlook

    Worldwide Market Share and Forecast

    Table of Contents

    Methodology (pg. 3)

    Product categories and definitions

    Product classifications

    What we count


    Service overlaps and clarifications

    Infonetics Research supply-side forecast process: reality-based equipment forecasting

    Network intrusion prevention and software forecasting

    Telecom/datacom fundamental drivers (pg. 9)

    Service provider market factors

    North American service provider market factors

    EMEA service provider market factors

    Asia Pacific service provider market factors

    Enterprise market factors

    Analysis, factors, and assumptions (pg. 18)

    Network intrusion prevention market analysis, factors, and assumptions

    Fundamental drivers

    Market size and forecasts

    Manufacturers and market share

    Demand-side study data (pg. 21)

    Worldwide market size and forecasts (pg. 22)

    Network intrusion prevention application split

    Dedicated IPS appliances, worldwide units and revenue

    Network intrusion prevention total available market

    Integrated security appliances with IPS, worldwide units and revenue

    Enterprise routers with IPS, worldwide units and revenue

    Ethernet LAN switches with IPS, worldwide revenue


    Worldwide Dedicated IPS Appliances Revenue

    Worldwide Integrated Security Appliances, Enterprise Routers, and Ethernet LAN Switches with IPS Revenue

    Dedicated IPS appliance market share (pg. 24)


    Worldwide Dedicated IPS Appliance Unit Market Share

    Worldwide Dedicated IPS Appliance Revenue Market Share

    &L&"Arial,Italic" 2006 Infonetics Research, Inc.&C&"Arial,Italic"Network Intrusion Prevention Market Outlook:Worldwide Market Share and ForecastMay 17, 2006&R&"Arial,Italic"Page &P



    Product Categories and Definitions

    Network intrusion prevention products hardware and software products that monitor and analyze network traffic for network intrusions and other network and application layer attacks, and actively block these attacks; these products sit in line in the netwo

    Network Intrusion Prevention Application Split

    uDedicated IPS Appliances: purpose-built hardware products whose primary function is IPS; this category tracks the subset of IDS/IPS appliances, an application split that estimates the unit and revenue shipment data for products actually being used by cust

    Network Intrusion Prevention Total Available Market

    We estimate the Total Available Market (TAM) for IPS for integrated security appliances, enterprise routers, and Ethernet LAN switches; we do not estimate whether they are being used for IPS, we are simply showing the TAM for products with IPS capability

    uIntegrated Security Appliances with IPS: hardware platforms purpose-built for network security with integrated IPS functionality (with filters for at least 50 attacks); most have VPN/firewall as the primary function of the appliance, but they may also hav

    uEnterprise Routers with IPS: enterprise routers with integrated IPS functionality (with filters for at least 50 attacks); includes low-end, mid-range, and high-end routers

    uEthernet LAN Switches with IPS: Ethernet LAN switches with integrated IPS functionality (with filters for at least 50 attacks)

    Product Classifications

    This list includes shipping products only. We do not list individual products for the categories that we are forecasting only, but not doing market share on.

    Network Intrusion Prevention Application Split: Dedicated IPS Appliances

    Arbor Networks Peakflow SPJuniper IDP 1000

    Arbor Networks Peakflow XJuniper ISG 2000

    Captus IPS4000McAfee IntruShield 1200

    Check Point InterSpectMcAfee IntruShield 2600

    Cisco IDS 4210McAfee IntruShield 4000

    Cisco IDS 4220TippingPoint 50

    Cisco IDS 4230TippingPoint 100E

    Cisco IDS 4235TippingPoint 200E

    Cisco IDS 4250TippingPoint 400E

    Cisco IDS 4250XLTippingPoint 1200

    Cisco IDSM2 moduleTippingPoint 2400

    DeepNines Intrusion Prevention SystemTippingPoint 5000E

    ISS Proventia G SeriesTopLayer Attack Mitigator IPS

    Juniper IDP 10Vsecure LG10

    Juniper IDP 100Vsecure LG100

    Juniper IDP 500

    What We Count

    In this service, we report units shipped for revenue recognized during the calendar year, and manufacturers' revenue. These are defined as follows:

    uUnits are single hardware devices (both standalone devices and chassis/cards) or software license/upgrades

    uManufacturers' revenue (US$) reported is for units shipped for revenue recognized during the calendar year; router and switch revenue includes chassis, and all modules (including security modules) shipped with the sale; OEM revenue is attributed to the or


    uWorldwide: all areas of the world

    uNorth America: US and Canada

    uEMEA: Europe, the Middle East, and Africa

    uAsia Pacific: Asia and the Pacific, including Japan and Australia

    uCALA: Caribbean and Latin America, including Mexico

    Service Overlaps and Clarifications


    uData for this services was derived directly from 3 Infonetics services:


    Network Security Appliances and Software: Quarterly Market Share & Forecasts serviceThe Dedicated IPS Appliances category in this service is a subset of the Network-Based In-Line IDS/IPS category, and the Integrated Security Appliances with IPS category in this service is a subset of the Integrated Security Appliances category

    Enterprise Routers: Quarterly Market Share and Forecast serviceThe Enterprise Routers with IPS category in this service is a subset of the total Enterprise Router category (includes low-end, mid-range, and high-end routers)

    L2-L7 LAN Switches: Quarterly Market Share & Forecasts serviceThe Ethernet LAN Switches with IPS category in this service is a subset of the total L2-L3 Ethernet Switch category


    uThis service does not include IP service routers; this can be found in our Service Provider Routers and Switches quarterly worldwide market share and forecast service

    Infonetics Research Supply-Side Forecast Process: Reality-Based Equipment Forecasting

    Our 5-step forecasting process, developed and refined over the last 15 years, is firmly grounded in reality. Our forecasts are built from and tied to actual data, and we update actuals and forecasts with each delivery (quarterly, biannually, or annually).

    We draw from our in-depth demand-side research, supply-side research, and service, product, and technology knowledge to provide accurate, reliable forecasts grounded in reality, reflecting data from all sides of the market. The process is described below.

    1. Develop Categories

    One of the most important steps in the forecasting process is proper development of categories; clear category definitions are key to gathering good actuals because they eliminate overlaps between categories, clearly showing what's in and what isn't. Cate

    2. Gather Actuals

    We develop actual data using the following steps:

    uGather actuals and create estimates (by product category and manufacturer) for shipments to North America, EMEA, APAC, and CALA; typically this represents 95% of the market, and we use the following sources:

    Manufacturer input

    Publicly available financial data



    Service providers

    Chip and component manufacturers


    Financial community

    Infonetics Research demand-side data on service provider and end-user organization product and technology use and plans

    uCreate an estimate for the portion of the market represented by manufacturers we do not work with directly; typically this represents less than 5% of the market

    uWe incent private companies to provide data to us by offering to keep their market share confidential, by building and maintaining positive relationships with them, thereby obtaining an accurate market size

    3. Forecast

    Starting with the most recent actuals, we develop forecasts using an analyst estimate of the change in unit/port shipments by region, multiplied by the ASP over time (or vice versa, revenue changes are estimated first with units or ports projected based o

    uGeneral factors:

    Historical data for the category we are forecasting (including seasonal and cyclical trends)

    Growth trends from parallel categories in other markets

    Macro-economic factors

    Announced and unannounced contracts with near-term significance

    Emergence of disruptive technologies

    Regulatory issues

    Discussions with key members of the financial community

    uDemand-side factors based on our research:

    Technology adoption rates

    Projected spending increases

    Preferences for product types

    Technology preferences

    Unit/port/line growth by speed/technology

    Plans for outsourcing

    Service provider capex

    Growth in subscriber base for a given service

    Discussions with customers

    uSupply-side factors:

    New standards

    New technologies

    Emerging companies

    Product/service pricing factors

    Discussions with manufacturers about quarterly performance and competition

    Discussions with channel about inventory

    Changes in discount structure in the channel

    Changes in component features or pricing

    Mergers and acquisitions in the vendor arena

    Chip manufacturer performance

    4. Validate & Explain Forecast

    We validate and cross-check equipment forecasts by creating fundamental demand models. When validating a forecast, we:

    Validate the forecast by checking against a model based on our demand side data (including number of companies/service providers deploying the equipment, average spending per company/per year, number of devices deployed, form factor, planned investments,

    Cross-check against our relevant market size, share, and forecast reports

    Cross-check against our relevant subscriber forecasts

    For service provider forecasts, we cross-check using our Capex Analysis reports for North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific

    In addition, we spend hundreds of hours annually meeting with service providers, network product manufacturers, chip and component manufacturers, and channels to understand their offerings, product roadmaps, and the direction of the market, giving us a st

    Forecast assumptions and our thinking behind our forecasts are laid out in the Analysis, Factors & Assumptions sheet; in particular see sections labeled "Fundamental Drivers."

    5. Report on Accuracy

    Each delivery (quarterly, biannual, annual) we report on the accuracy of our forecasts to help customers track our performance, and to help us further refine our forecasts. We report when actuals deviate from forecasts, and explain our adjustments.

    Network Intrusion Prevention Forecasting

    Taking all forecast factors into account, knowing the strategies, product plans, regional plans, and performance of the vendor, we forecast the next 4 years by product category.

    Most of the data included in this service is based on data provided by manufacturers, the sales channel, and customers, and includes significant estimates by Infonetics Research, as one of the primary categories we're forecasting in this service is an "ap

    The "total available market" forecasts in this service (integrated security appliances, enterprise routers, and Ethernet LAN switches) are derived by taking the total market size for these categories and estimating (based on supply and demand side informa

    &L&"Arial,Italic" 2006 Infonetics Research, Inc.&C&"Arial,Italic"Network Intrusion Prevention Market Outlook:Worldwide Market Share and ForecastMay 17, 2006&R&"Arial,Italic"Page &P

    Telecom-Datacom Drivers

    Telecom/Datacom Market Fundamental Drivers

    Service Provider Market Factors

    uAcross the industry, aggregate investments grew in 2005, particularly in Europe (+10%), and North America (+8%); for public carriers in North America, Europe, and Asia, capital spending increased 6% in 2005 to US$178 billion, and expectations are for 6% g

    We expect that 2006 will continue with similar trends, while carriers keep their capital expenditure-to-revenue ratio around 15% for incumbent carriers and emerging markets with higher capital intensities

    Stable and slightly upward bound capital expenditures do not mean that carriers no longer need help improving their margins, and for further cost savings service providers will focus on reducing operational expenditures

    Many service providers see IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystems) as key to enabling these operational efficiencies, and so IMS has become a key focus of capex for both fixed and mobile operators; it is also seen as the path for fixed-mobile convergence, both at

    Although virtually everyone is jumping into the IMS bandwagon, quantifying the return IMS may eventually bring has yet to be achieved

    This positive capital spending environment combined with the need for opex reduction is positive for next gen equipment markets, which will make up larger portions of overall capex over the next 5 years

    Investments continue to shift from old gen to next gen technologies, from legacy equipment to products based on IP and Ethernet, particularly in broadband and wireless access networks; IP optimization plays a key role in reducing operating expenditures an

    Such new equipment introduces automation, consolidates functions, increases performance per dollar, or introduces new functionality, all of which increase operational efficiency, reducing total cost of ownership; ideally, these investments also lay the fo

    While the capex pie is basically the same size or slightly growing, the slices are changing size

    uIncreased adoption of broadband data services (DSL, cable, PON, and wireless) and the increase in traffic due to broadband adoption are driving spending in access, edge, core, and optical networks

    Broadband continues to gain momentum and DSL providers are making big gains in penetration; worldwide DSL subscriptions stand at 126M at the end of 2005, up 27% from 2004, increasing to 245M in 2009 as reported in our DSL Aggregation Hardware and Broadban

    Cable subscriptions are up 14% annually at the end of 2005 to 46M worldwide, climbing to 62M in 2009, as reported in our CMTS Hardware and Broadband CPE market share services

    PON subscribers were at 3.4M in 2005; we expect continued strong growth in PON subscribers in all regions with CY09 reaching 31M subscribers

    Chief among the drivers for broadband investment are IPTV services, a portfolio of IP-based, TV-centric services that include broadcast TV, video-on-demand, HDTV, networked PVR, online gaming, music download, video telephony, and home security services; w

    Similarly, the opportunity to deliver mobile TV services is a major driver of expenditure for mobile operators; to deliver mobile TV and other bandwidth-intensive multimedia applications, mobile operators...