New Issues in Monetary Policy; July 2014 - imf. Issues in Monetary Policy . ... banks, including forward guidance, balance sheet operations, ... economic growth and structural transformation

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  • SUMMARIES AND PRESENTATIONS

    This is the official English version. For the Chinese translation please see:

    http://www.imf.org/external/country/chn/rr/chi/whatwedo.htm

    PBC and IMF Joint Conference

    New Issues in Monetary Policy International Experience and

    Relevance for China

    EDITORS Kai Guo and Alfred Schipke

  • New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Foreword ................................................................................... i

    YI Gang

    Introduction ............................................................................ iii

    SESSION I: Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks after the

    Global Financial Crisis............................................................... 1

    Rethinking Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Global Financial Crisis LI Bo ..................................................................................................... 2

    Beyond Flexible Inflation Targeting: Canadas Experience John Murray ................................................................................................ 4

    The ECBs Monetary Policy Framework Before and After the Crisis Philipp Hartmann ........................................................................................ 8

    Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Japanese Experience in 1999-2014 Tsutomu Watanabe .................................................................................. 13

    SESSION II: Changing Toolkit of Central Banks ....................... 15

    Chinese Monetary Policy Tools SUN Guofeng ...................................................................................... 16

    Remarks on the Changing Toolkit of Central Banks Arminio Fraga ........................................................................................... 22

    Some Thoughts on the Design of Monetary Policy Strategy and Communications Andrew Levin ............................................................................................. 25

    China's Evolving Monetary Policy Framework WANG Tao ................................................................................................. 28

  • 2

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    SESSION III: Rapidly Changing Financial Systems: Challenges

    for the Coordination of Financial Sector and Monetary Policy

    ................................................................................................ 31

    Central Bank, Monetary Policy and Macro-prudential Supervision WANG Yu ............................................................................................ 32

    Lessons from Israels Monetary Policy Experience Leonardo Leiderman ................................................................................. 36

    Cyclical Macro-Prudential Policies Nellie Liang ................................................................................................ 39

    Rapidly Changing Financial Systems: Challenges for the Coordination of Financial Sector and Monetary Policy Ana Maria Aguilar ..................................................................................... 48

    SESSION IV: Experiences in Moving Toward Market Based

    Policy Instruments ................................................................. 53

    Koreas Experience with Monetary Policy Instruments Woon Gyu Choi ................................................................................... 54

    Moving Toward Market-Based Policy Instruments: The Malaysian Experience Sukudhew (Sukhdave) Singh ...................................................................... 58

    China: Moving Toward Interest Rate Targeting MA Jun ...................................................................................................... 61

    From Direct to Indirect Instruments in Monetary Policy: the European Experience of the 1980s Heinz Herrmann ........................................................................................ 65

    Closing Remarks ..................................................................... 68

    Markus Rodlauer

    Biographies............................................................................. 72

  • 3

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    Appendix ................................................................................ 90

    Presentations ..................................................................................... 91 Conference Agenda .......................................................................... 237

  • i

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    FOREWORD

    Y I GANG1

    On behalf of Governor Zhou and the Peoples Bank of China (PBC), I

    would like to welcome everyone to the second joint PBC-IMF conference.

    Last year, the PBC and IMF held a very successful conference on

    capital flow management, during which experts from around the world

    gave some good advice on capital account liberalization in China. Later,

    the third plenum of the 18th Party Congress decided China will promote

    the opening of the capital market in both directions, increase the

    convertibility of cross-border capital and financial transactions in an

    orderly way and accelerate renminbi capital account convertibility. The

    message of last years conference was quite consistent with what China

    ultimately decided to do.

    In the last seven or eight years, we have witnessed the Lehman

    Brothers crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and recent turmoil in

    some emerging market economies. Summarizing the lessons from these

    crises and rethinking the framework of monetary policy and macro-

    prudential policy are important, especially for China, a country

    undergoing fast transitions in both its financial system and its overall

    policy framework.

    China is now in a transitional juncture as its financial sector

    landscape has evolved significantly in recent years. First, market access

    for private and foreign participants has been expanded to enhance

    competition and provide a level playing field. Second, the surge of

    shadow banking and internet finance has reshaped finance, attracting

    money out of the traditional system of regulated banks and contributing

    to the formation of more market-based interest rates. All these changes

    1 Yi Gang is Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy

    Governor of the Peoples Bank of China

  • ii

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    in economic and financial conditions call for further reform tailored to

    the circumstances, especially the evolution of an overall monetary policy

    framework to keep pace with the constant innovation. On the policy side,

    the PBC has increased the flexibility of the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate

    and advanced interest rate liberalization. Efforts are being made toward

    putting in place the infrastructure for adoption of more market-based

    monetary policy tools, such as developing the financial market,

    promoting competition, reinforcing property rights protections, and

    improving corporate governance of financial institutions. We will advance

    the reform program steadfastly according to the Third Plenum Reform

    Blueprint.

    Against this background, todays conference will touch upon many

    important issues related to monetary policy, such as reviewing major

    economies experiences as they moved toward price-based tools,

    discussing challenges for monetary policy frameworks in the wake of the

    global financial crisis, and rethinking the coordination of monetary policy

    and macro-prudential policy. These topics are particularly important and

    relevant for China to better formulate a reform plan. This conference is

    also a good opportunity to share our own practices in conducting

    monetary policy as well as our thinking about reforms ahead with a very

    distinguished audience.

    Finally, I would like to thank IMF colleagues and our PBC staff for

    their efforts to organize the conference, and also everyone present today

    for their contributions to the conference. I hope this conference will

    contribute to reforms in China and a better understanding of Chinas

    circumstances globally.

  • iii

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    INTRODUCTION2

    The Peoples Bank of China (PBC) and the International Monetary Fund

    (IMF) held a joint conference on March 27, 2014, in Beijing to discuss

    New Issues in Monetary Policy in the context of the international

    experience and its relevance for China. This was the second joint

    PBC/IMF conference; the first was held in 2013 and covered capital

    account liberalization.

    Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and the use of

    unconventional monetary policy, conference participants looked at the

    implications for monetary policy frameworks, as well as the changing

    toolkit available to central banks. As China makes the transition toward

    an increasingly open and complex financial system, the conference

    reviewed the experience of other major economies as they moved

    toward interest-rate-based tools and how they addressed rapidly

    changing financial landscapes. The conference brought together central

    bankers, international experts, Chinese academics, and PBC and IMF

    staff. The event encompassed five sessions:

    SESSION I: EVOLVING MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORKS AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Conventional wisdom about optimal policy frameworks has been

    challenged. Although inflation targeting delivered low and stable inflation

    in many advanced economies and emerging markets before the global

    crisis, there is a debate about optimal monetary policy frameworks that

    2 The editors would like to thank Li Jing from the IMF Beijing office for doing an

    outstanding job in putting the e-book together.

  • iv

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    go beyond narrowly defined inflation targets of the past, including taking

    into consideration growth, unemployment, and financial stability. This

    session reviewed the latest views on optimal monetary policy

    frameworks and their implications for China.

    SESSION II: CHANGING TOOLKIT OF CENTRAL BANKS

    This session reviewed the changing and expanding toolkit of central

    banks, including forward guidance, balance sheet operations, capital flow

    management, and macro-prudential policies.

    SESSION III: RAPIDLY CHANGING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: CHALLENGES FOR THE COORDINATION OF FINANCIAL SECTOR AND MONETARY POLICY

    Rapidly changing financial systems, financial innovations, and the surge of

    nonbank and shadow banking activities go hand-in-hand with strong

    economic growth and structural transformation. While beneficial, it

    presents challenges both for financial sector regulation and supervision

    and the conduct of monetary policy. This session looked at the

    international experience of how best to approach a rapidly changing

    financial sector landscape and how best to coordinate macro-prudential

    and monetary policy.

    SESSION IV: EXPERIENCES IN MOVING TOWARD MARKET-BASED POLICY INSTRUMENTS

    As countries move from quantitative targets to price-based monetary

    policy tools, they have to determine the appropriate anchor, instruments,

    and operational targets. This session looked at how countries managed

    the transition and the lessons and implications for China.

  • v

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    The conference concluded with a panel discussion that drew on the

    main conclusions from the days event. Panel members summarized their

    main takeaways with a focus on lessons that may be relevant for China's

    next steps.

    The volume includes short summaries for each topic and of the

    respective presentations, as well as the concluding remarks. While this is

    the official version, a Chinese translation is available at

    http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/rr/chi/.

    http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/rr/chi/

  • 1

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    SESSION I

    EVOLVING MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORKS AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

  • 2

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    RETHINKING MONETARY POLICY

    LI Bo3

    In the aftermath of the 200709 global financial crisis, the zero interest

    rate, quantitative easing, and credit easing have become the most-used

    monetary policy instruments to stimulate the economies of postcrisis

    developed countries (please see Appendix for the corresponding

    presentations, including figures and tables). The crisis poses a significant

    challenge to monetary policy framework. First, it challenges central

    banks objectives, including the rationale for the single objective of

    targeting price stability. It raises questions on whether price stability is

    enough to ensure financial stability and whether more-flexible inflation

    targets should be considered. Second, it challenges the operation of

    central banks, including whether the policy interest rate is effective and

    whether quantitative tools should be introduced. Third, it challenges

    central banks independence. Since the financial crisis, central banks have

    been under varying degrees of pressure from governments, markets, and

    the public. New debates on central bank independence have arisen. For

    example, which is more important, independence from the government

    or independence from the legislature? The pressure from voters and the

    political process in democratic politics poses a challenge to central bank

    independence. Fourth, it challenges monetary policy strategy. In the

    aftermath of the crisis, the unconventional monetary policy operations of

    the major central banks created significant shocks to the rules-based

    monetary policy strategy of the precrisis period. Discretionary policy

    making became the norm. The postcrisis experience has shown that the

    dichotomy between rules-based and discretionary policymaking is

    perhaps an oversimplification that fails to capture the complex options

    central bankers are facing in the real world.

    3 Li Bo is Deputy Director General in the Monetary Policy Department II, Peoples Bank

    of China.

  • 3

    New Issues in Monetary Policy: International Experience and Relevance for China

    The financial crisis has presented us with a new perspective in

    studying the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies.

    Monetary and fiscal policies differ in many respects including objectives,

    constraints, tools, and the decision-making mechanism. Complementary

    monetary and fiscal policies can create a hybrid governance mechanism

    for the macroeconomy. In the short term, the fiscal decision-making

    process is complex, protracted, and often constrained by parliamentary

    procedures. Therefore, during times of crisis,...

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