Overview of Chinese economy directions, and long term stainless steel demand

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<p> 1. 2013.5.15 2. Nickel price cycle and three investment boomsDING-CycleOvercapacity isa normal stateData source: LMEsoaringrisingrising Logic Periodicity2012.11.22 Bali 3. 2012.11.22BaliLME Ni2013.2.18 4. 05000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000045000050000019521956196019641968197219761980198419881992199620002004200805001000150020002500300035004000GDP() t1978:2001:WTO2008:GDP-NFMSourceNBSCNIA 5. -55-35-15525456519531956195919621965196819711974197719801983198619891992199519982001200420072010GDP 1978: 2001:WTO 2008: SourceNBSCNIA% 6. 10-5051015202519781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010GDP 1981 1990 1999 20091984 19922007Next Juglar cycle3 Kitchin CyclesABCDSourceNBSCNIA% 7. : Wi nd04-12 05-12 06-12 07-12 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-1204-12GDP: : : ( )789101112131415-80816243240% % 8. : Wi nd05-12 06-12 07-12 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-1205-12: CPI : -30369121518218.92.12.49.3% 9. 10.411.49.78.911.210.811.311.912.413.812.212.414.015.014.213.611.310.79.86.66.68.49.612.210.39.79.5 9.38.78.17.67.9 7.88.47.97.78.0 8.2 8.18.112.19.89.67.4678910111213141516200432004920053200592006320069200732007920083200892009320099201032010920113201192012320129201332013920143201492013 % 10. t 11. 02004006008001000120014001600180020002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E2013F-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% 160918101289142812.5%10.8%69%0000 t 12. -10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220136%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15% GDPGDP2012 14.2% 16.5% 7.8%2013F 12.5% 10.8% 7.85% 13. : Wi nd09-12 10-12 11-12 12-1209-12: PMI : PMI: PMI485052545658 14. 12-01-3112-03-3112-05-3112-07-3112-09-3012-11-3013-01-3113-03-3112-01-31: LME3 ( )150001600017000180001900020000210002200078. 479. 280. 080. 881. 682. 483. 284. 02012.9.6 OMT2012.9.13 QE32012.12.12 QE42012.12.20 2013.1.22 CPI2%2014 12013.4.19 700QE 15. : Wi nd12-01-3112-03-3112-05-3112-07-3112-09-3012-11-3013-01-3113-03-3112-01-31: : ( )6. 206. 226. 246. 266. 286. 306. 326. 34256000258000260000262000264000266000268000270000270687.35 16. 0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001000.001200.001400.001600.00Oct - 11 Jan- 12 Apr - 12 Jul - 12 Oct - 12 Jan- 13 Apr - 13 PIGGS 5CDS 17. 1 2 3 231 2 18. 19. : Wi nd11-12 12-02 12-04 12-06 12-08 12-10 12-12 13-02 13-0411-12: ( ) : : -2-10123459520960096809760984099201000010080 20. 21. 2.0 1.2.3. 31 2 22. 23. 10 2.0 24. Zhiqiang DingMP 189 3982 6818Emailfishermanding@sina.comQQ: d2080@qq.com(1524874337): ding2080</p>