Paloma Esteve - PhD Thesis

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  • Departamento de Economa y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias

    Escuela Tcnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrnomos

    Universidad Politcnica de Madrid

    Water scarcity and climate change impact and

    vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean

    river basins

    Tesis doctoral

    Paloma Esteve Bengoechea Ingeniero Agrnomo

    Directores

    Consuelo Varela Ortega Dr. Ingeniero Agrnomo (Universidad Politcnica de Madrid)

    Thomas E. Downing Dr. Geografa (Clark University)

    Madrid, 2013

  • Tribunal nombrado por el Sr. Rector Magfco. de la Universidad Politcnica de Madrid, el da de . de 201

    Presidente: Vocal: Vocal: Vocal: Secretario: Suplente: Suplente:

    Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la Tesis el da de . de 201 en la E.T.S.I./Facultad .

    Calificacin .

    EL PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES

    EL SECRETARIO

  • A mi familia

  • i

    Acknowledgements

    This doctoral thesis has developed over five years of hard, challenging work it has tested my

    maturity and has taken me through some difficult times. Undoubtedly, this could not have

    been completed without the great support of many people who have been involved at various

    stages, and who have offered me their support throughout the completion of this thesis.

    I want to express my immense gratitude to the directors of this thesis, without whom this

    work would have been far more difficult, if not impossible. To start, I want to thank Professor

    Consuelo Varela Ortega who coaxed me into the world of research. Consuelo has been my

    professor, director of my undergraduate research and more recently the director of this thesis.

    Consuelo graciously offered me the opportunity to be part of her team and work on projects

    that aroused my interests in the complicated world of water, its management and impacts. Her

    help has been much more than just academic, she has offered me her friendship and has

    helped me understand and learn from my weaknesses, whilst developing my strengths. She

    has always had the words to motivate and direct me when Ive been lost.

    I am very grateful to my co-director, Tom Downing, who opened the doors of his house and

    team to me. The time in Oxford was an important turning point in the development of this

    research. To him I will always be grateful for offering a new perspective on the issues of water

    and adaptation to climate change, and for inspiring the selection of methods to provide a

    social perspective to climate change.

    I would further like to thank the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (GCAP) in Oxford and

    the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Boston for allowing me to research at their

    centres. These periods were fundamental in the development of the models and applied

    approaches of this research. I received unquestioning support from both my co-director Tom

    Downing (GCAP) and David Purkey (SEI), who supervised my research stays at Oxford and

    Boston. Also, I would like to offer my thanks to the teams in Oxford and Boston, especially

    Brian Joyce of SEI-Boston, who helped me in the development of the application WEAP in the

    middle Guadiana, and Eric Kemp- Benedict and Jack Sieber. My time in the UK and USA were

    extremely important for this research and provided me unforgettable personal experiences.

    In addition, I have been fortunate to have the support of the European research projects

    SCENES, MEDIATION and MEDPRO. They have supported me not just financially, but have been

  • ii

    sources of understanding and inspiration and have consistently exposed me to novel methods

    of research. These projects have given me the opportunity to work with teams from across the

    world and researchers of the highest level who have contributed importantly to this

    investigation through intense and valuable discussions and work sessions. From the SCENES

    project I would like to especially highlight Professor Kasper Kok (University of Wageningen,

    Netherlands) for his contributions towards scenario development. I must also mention the

    teams at the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari (IAMB, Italy) and the Middle East

    Technical University (METU, Turkey), directed by Dr. Nicola Lamaddalena and Professor Erol

    Cakmak respectively, with whom I learned a great deal about water and agriculture in the

    Mediterranean.

    From the MEDIATION project I want to especially highlight the help of Dr Rob Swart (Alterra,

    Netherlands) the coordinator of the project, Dr Sukaina Bharwani (SEI-Oxford, UK) for her

    contribution in methodological aspects and social approaches, Dr Paul Watkiss (collaborator at

    SEI-Oxford, UK) for his valuable comments on climate change adaptation economic analysis, Dr

    Jochen Hinkel (PIK, Germany), for his contribution to the debate on vulnerability and to

    Doctors Tim Carter and Stephan Fronzek (SYKE, Finland) for their contribution to climate

    change scenarios.

    From the MEDPRO project I want to thank the support of Dr Rym Ayadi (CEPS, Belgium)

    coordinator of the project, and to Dr Francesco Bosello (FEEM, Italy) for his contribution to the

    analysis of the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture.

    My research has consistently received absolute support from the Universidad Politcnica de

    Madrid, from the financial support that allowed me to complete this thesis, or the two

    scholarships that permitted me to carry out my stays in the USA and UK. Also, I must thank the

    Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, from the School of Agricultural

    Engineering (UPM), and CEIGRAM (Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and

    Environmental Risks) who have supported and contributed to my training and development in

    their efforts to support the careers of young researchers. I especially want to acknowledge the

    support of their respective directors, Professor Isabel Bardaj and Professor Alberto Garrido. I

    further want to highlight the support of the Professors of the Department of Agricultural

    Economics and CEIGRAM, especially Eva Iglesias and Ana Iglesias, who both contributed to my

    education and have provided interesting opinions and suggestions.

    In the development of this research and specifically a number of tools within it, the

    contribution of the stakeholders of the middle Guadiana has been fundamental. I would

  • iii

    specifically like to acknowledge the support of Jos ngel Rodrguez Cabello, the head of the

    Planning Office in the Guadiana River Basin Authority, and to Jos Ramn Picatoste and his

    team in the Spanish Office for Climate Change. I would also like to give my thanks for the

    support I received from the irrigation communities of Montijo and Zujar, and, especially,

    Tomas Directas del Guadiana and his secretary Blas Benito de Motta, who always gave me a

    warm welcome on my many visits to Badajoz. Thanks also to the Department of Agriculture,

    Rural Development, Environment and Energy of Extremadura, to ADENEX (Association for the

    Defence of Nature in Extremadura) and WWF Spain, especially Alberto Fernndez Lop who has

    worked very actively in all the consultations and participatory processes carried out. Also, I

    would like to thank a number of experts who participated in various consultations, in addition

    to the previously mentioned Alberto Garrido and Ana Iglesias, Professor Carlos Hernndez

    Daz- Ambrona, of the Universidad Politcnica de Madrid, Professor Lucia de Stefano, of the

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid, and finally to Nuria Hernndez Mora from Fundacin

    Nueva Cultura del Agua. I want to thank very especially Professor Ramn Llamas, who

    introduced me, in the frame of the NEWATER project, to the issues of water management in

    the Guadiana basin.

    An extremely rewarding part of this research has been the development of the case study in

    Jordan. I was very fortunate to perform field work, funded by the MEDPRO project, in the

    Jordan Valley. This work would not have been possible without the support of Professors

    Muhammad Shatanawi and Khaldoun Shatanawi, of the University of Jordan, and of Johannes

    Stork and Nour Habjoka, of the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and

    advisors from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan for the development of the

    National Plan for Water.

    Throughout my years at the university and during the development of this research, there

    have been two people with whom I have shared both academic and personal concerns,

    successes, failures and especially many memorable moments that have made this work far

    easier. Irene Blanco and Gema Carmona have been my colleagues, friends and perfect

    exemplars. Seeing the development of their research and qualities has taught me a lot, and has

    helped me to cope with the challenge that has been this research.

    I would also like to thank the support of a number of people during specific tasks within this

    work, Laura Barrios (CSIC), that advised me in the use of statistics and econometric techniques,

    and Jeremy Schlickenrieder who helped me through editing work.

  • iv

    During my time at the Department of Economics and Social Sciences at the School of

    Agricultural Engineering (UPM) and in CEIGRAM, I have shared fantastic moments with other

    PhD students and research assistants. Amongst them I want to stress Marina and Paula for

    their friendship, support and understanding, and Macarena, Berta, Chen, Cristian, Francisco,

    Jorge, Lola, Mauro, Rhys, Ruth, Silvestre and many others who formed part of my day to day

    life.

    Finally, I would like to express my immense gratitude to my family. My husband, Manuel

    Barreiro, who has always been at my side to cheer me up and to celebrate every milestone

    achieved. My parents, who have been a model of how to deal with life's difficulties, and who

    have always demonstrated to me the importance of hard work in achieving one's goals.

    Thank you very much to all of you!

  • v

    Agradecimientos

    Esta tesis doctoral se ha desarrollado a lo largo de cinco aos de duro trabajo en los que he

    afrontado un reto de madurez complicado que me ha hecho pasar por momentos dulces y

    tambin amargos. Esto, indudablemente, no habra podido lograrlo sin el grandsimo apoyo de

    muchas personas que se han involucrado en este proceso y que me han ofrecido su apoyo en

    este difcil trabajo.

    Quiero expresar mi inmenso agradecimiento a mis directores de tesis. Sin su apoyo me hubiera

    resultado enormemente difcil, si no imposible, realizar este trabajo. En primer lugar, quiero

    referirme a la Catedrtica Consuelo Varela Ortega que me inici en el mundo de la

    investigacin. Consuelo ha sido mi profesora, directora de mi trabajo de fin de carrera y en los

    ltimos aos tambin directora de mi tesis doctoral. Ella me ofreci la oportunidad de ser

    parte de su equipo y de trabajar en los proyectos que despertaron en m el inters por la

    investigacin y por el estudio del complejo mundo del agua, su gestin y sus repercusiones. Su

    apoyo, adems, ha ido mucho ms all de la faceta acadmica, ofrecindome su amistad y

    ayudndome a conocer mis debilidades, a aprender de ellas y a potenciar mis fortalezas.

    Siempre ha sabido ofrecerme las palabras que necesitaba, motivarme para mejorar y

    orientarme cuando he estado perdida.

    Mi co-director, Tom Downing, me abri las puertas de su equipo y de su casa. Mi estancia en

    Oxford supuso un punto de inflexin importante en el desarrollo de esta investigacin.

    Siempre le estar agradecida por haber aportado una visin diferente sobre los problemas del

    agua y la adaptacin al cambio climtico y por haberme inspirado en la eleccin de enfoques y

    mtodos que abordan la perspectiva ms social del cambio climtico.

    Debo agradecer tambin al Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (GCAP), en Oxford, y al

    Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), en Boston, por haberme permitido realizar dos

    estancias de investigacin en sus centros que han sido fundamentales para el desarrollo de los

    modelos y los enfoques aplicados en esta investigacin. En estas estancias he contado con el

    inestimable apoyo de mi co-director, Tom Downing (GCAP), y de David Purkey (SEI) que

    dirigieron esas estancias, me ofrecieron su apoyo y simpata. Tambin debo agradecer la gran

    acogida por parte de los miembros de sus equipos, y especialmente la ayuda de Brian Joyce, de

    SEI-Boston, que me ayud en el desarrollo de la aplicacin de WEAP en el Medio Guadiana, y

  • vi

    de Eric Kemp-Benedict y Jack Sieber. Ambas estancias han sido muy importantes para esta

    investigacin y me han aportado adems experiencias personales muy valiosas.

    Adems, he tenido la suerte de poder contar con el apoyo de los proyectos europeos de

    investigacin SCENES, MEDIATION y MEDPRO que, ms all de la financiacin de muchas de las

    actividades comprendidas en esta investigacin, han sido fuente de conocimiento e

    inspiracin, y me han puesto en contacto con metodologas novedosas. Estos proyectos me

    han brindado la oportunidad de trabajar con equipos internacionales e investigadores de gran

    nivel que han contribuido importantemente a esta investigacin a travs de intensos y ricos

    debates y sesiones de trabajo. Del proyecto SCENES quisiera destacar la colaboracin del Prof.

    Kasper Kok (U. Wageningen, Pases Bajos), por sus contribuciones sobre el desarrollo de

    escenarios, y a los equipos mediterrneos del Instituto Agronmico del Mediterrneo de Bari

    (IAMB, Italia) y de la Middle East Technical University (METU, Turqua), dirigidos por el Dr.

    Nicola Lamaddalena y el Prof. Erol Cakmak respectivamente, con los que he aprendido mucho

    sobre agua y agricultura en el Mediterrneo. Del proyecto MEDIATION quiero destacar

    especialmente el apoyo del Dr. Rob Swart (Alterra, Pases Bajos), coordinador del proyecto, la

    Dra. Sukaina Bharwani (SEI-Oxford, Reino Unido), por su contribucin en aspectos

    metodolgicos y en enfoques sociales, el Dr. Paul Watkiss (colaborador de SEI-Oxford, Reino

    Unido), por sus valiosos comentarios respecto al anlisis econmico de la adaptacin al cambio

    climtico, el Dr. Jochen Hinkel (PIK, Alemania), por su aportacin al debate sobre la

    vulnerabilidad y los doctores Tim Carter y Stephan Fronzek (SYKE, Finlandia) por su

    contribucin a los escenarios de cambio climtico. Del proyecto MEDPRO quiero agradecer su

    apoyo a la Dra. Rym Ayadi (CEPS, Blgica), coordinadora del proyecto, y al Dr. Francesco

    Bosello (FEEM, Italia), por su contribucin al anlisis del cambio climtico en la agricultura del

    Mediterrneo.

    Esta investigacin ha contado, adems, con un amplio apoyo por parte de la Universidad

    Politcnica de Madrid, a travs de una beca para la realizacin del doctorado y de dos becas

    para la realizacin de estancias en centros de investigacin internacionales. Asimismo, el

    Departamento de Economa y Ciencias Sociales de la ETSI Agrnomos y el CEIGRAM (Centro de

    Estudios e Investigacin para la Gestin de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales) me han

    apoyado y han contribuido a mi formacin a lo largo de los ltimos aos en su afn por apoyar

    las carreras de sus jvenes investigadores. Especialmente quiero rec...