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<p>1</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>KINH T VIT NAM TRONG BI CNH KINH T TH GII HIN NAY - MT S PHN TCH V KHUYN NGH CHNH SCHNguyn c Thnh, inh Tun Minh</p> <p>Gii thiuNn kinh t Vit Nam ang trong giai on tri nghim nhng thch thc quan trng nht ca c ch th trng v ton cu ha. Sau khi gia nhp T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO) vo cui nm 2006, m ca nn kinh t tng vt t mc 100% ln 150% ch trong vng hai nm, lung vn gin tip v trc tip chy vo mnh cha tng c. C ch th trng c i hi phi p dng ton din hn v su sc hn trong i sng kinh t v sn xut nhm tun th cc iu kin ca WTO. Nhng thay i ny trc vn c mong ch nh mt cn gi mt, nhng thc t li ging nh mt cn gi lnh t ngt thi ti nhiu hn, khin nn kinh t ri vo tnh trng cm lnh t qu 3-2007, m du hiu l ln u tin sau nhiu nm, lm pht vt mc 1% mt thng. Gii chnh sch t ra thc s lng tng trc hon cnh mi. Mt iu khng may mn na l cuc khng hong ti chnh M bt u lan ra ton cu v trn ti Vit Nam vo qu 3-2008, lm cho tnh hnh tr nn ti t hn. Tuy nhin, nhng du hiu phc hi xut hin vo cui nm 2009; theo d bo ca cc t chc nghin cu ln th khu vc ng ang ly li tng trng mnh m hn c. Trong bi cnh , Vit Nam s phc hi nh th no l mt cu hi quan trng. Trong bi vit ny, chng ti phn tch nhng c im ca nn kinh t th gii v Vit Nam trong giai on 2005-2009 l giai on c tm im l cuc khng hong ton cu. Trn c s , chng ti tho lun nhng iu kin cn thit trong ngn hn Vit Nam c th tr li qu o phc hi v tng trng nhanh trong thi gian ti.</p> <p>Nhng c im chnh ca kinh t th gii giai on 2005-2009im chnh ca nn kinh t th gii giai on 2005-2010 l s tng trng nng ca nn kinh t th gii ln ti nh cao vo nm 2007 v sau ri vo mt cuc i Suy gim (Great Recession) ti t nht k t sau cuc i Suy thoi (Great Depression) giai on 1929-1933. Vic kinh t th gii pht trin mnh (v khng vng chc) cho ti trc nm 2007 ch yu bt ngun t chnh sch v m ni lng thi qu ca chnh ph M t sau cuc khng hong dot.com vo nm 2000, s tri dy nhanh chng ca t cng mi ni, Brazil, Nga, n v c bit l Trung Quc (nhm BRIC), tch t s mt cn i v m ton cu. Nhng mt cn i ny l iu kin c bn (fundamental) cc dng ti chnh dch chuyn vi nhng khi lung ln cha tng c trong lch s, vt qua tm hiu bit v kim sot ca gii chnh sch, chm ngi cho cuc khng hong ti chnh M v sau lan ra cc nc pht trin; v n lt n ko theo s suy gim v kinh t trn ton th gii. Nhng vn sau y ca kinh t th gii s ln lt c cp: tng trng kinh t, pht trin cng nghip, thng mi, gi c, u t trc tip, v vai tr ngy cng tng ca cc cng ty xuyn quc gia.</p> <p>2</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>Tng trng kinh tNn kinh t th gii tri qua mt giai on pht trin tng i n nh, trung bnh khong 5% cho n trc khi cuc khng hong kinh t - ti chnh ton cu din ra vo qu 12008. Cc nc ang pht trin t c mc tng trng trung bnh cao hn khong 8% nm, so vi mc 3% nm ca cc nc pht trin trong giai on ny (Hnh ). Khi khng hong kinh t xy ra, cc nn kinh t pht trin li b ri vo suy thoi ln hn, chm mc thp nht (-8%) vo qu 4-2008, trong khi cc nn kinh t ang pht trin ch b suy gim xung mc thp nht (-4%) vo qu 1-2009 (Hnh 1). Hnh 1. Tng trng GDP ton cu (% theo qu)</p> <p>Ngun: IMF, 2009</p> <p>Xt theo khu vc, Trung Quc v n t mc tng n tng nht. Trung Quc duy tr c mc tng trng cao, vi t l t 10% n 13% trong giai on 2003-2007. n cng t c mc tng trn 9% trong cc nm 2005-2007. Cc nc thuc cng ng cc quc gia c lp (tc cc nc thuc Lin X c) cng t mc tng trng n tng, t 7,5% nm 2006 v 8,4% nm 2007. Cc nc thuc ASEAN c mc tng trng trung bnh. Ring Vit Nam t mc tng trng tng i cao, vi mc tng trng t 6,2% n 8,5% trong cc nm 2006-2008. Tip n l nhng nc thuc khu vc Nam v Trung M, vi mc tng trng trn 6% trong cc nm 2005-2007. Cc nc pht trin, c bit l M v Nht, c mc tng thp hn c, ch trong khong t 2% n 2,8% trong cc nm 2005-2007. Nm 2008 hu ht cc nn kinh t u c tc tng trng thp hn so vi nm cc trc , nhng th t tng trng hu nh khng thay i (xem Bng 1). Bng 1. Tng trng GDP theo cc khu vc kinh t (2006-2008) GDP 2006 Th gii Bc M M Nam v Trung M Chu u 3.7 2.9 2.8 6.1 3.1 2007 3.5 2.1 2 6.6 2.8 2008 1.7 1.1 1.1 5.3 1</p> <p>3</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>Khi EU (27 nc) Khi cng ng cc quc gia c lp (CIS) Chu Phi Trung ng Chu Trung Quc Nht n Hn Quc Malaysia Indonesia Thi Lan Vit Nam</p> <p>3 7.5 5.7 5.2 4.6 11.6 2 9.8 5.1 6.8 5.5 5.2 8.2</p> <p>2.8 8.4 5.8 5.5 4.9 11.9 2.4 9.3 5.1 6.2 6.3 4.9 8.5</p> <p>1 5.5 5 5.7 2 9 -0.7 7.9 2.2 4.6 6.1 2.6 6.2Ngun: WTO Secertariat</p> <p>Pht trin cng nghipSn xut cng nghip trn th gii duy tr c mc tng trng cao trc khi khng hong din ra, trung bnh 6% nm trong giai on 2005-2007. Cc nc mi ni t mc tng trng n tng hn c vi mc tng xp x 10% trong giai on ny, cao hn nhiu so vi mc khong 3,5% ca cc nc pht trin trong cng thi k (Hnh 2). Tuy nhin, sn xut cng nghip hng chu mc suy gim cc k ln k t qu 2-2008. Mc st gim sn xut cng nghip trn ton th gii ln n nh im, xp x (-24%) so vi qu trc , vo qu 42008. Cc nc mi ni c mc st gim sn xut cng nghip thp hn, ch khong (-20%) so vi mc gn (-30%) ca cc nc pht trin. Hnh 2. Thay i sn lng cng nghip th gii (trung bnh trt ba thng)</p> <p>Ngun: IMF, 2009 Ghi ch:</p> <p>4</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh - Cc nc mi ni: Argentina, Brazil , Bulgaria, Chile, Trung Quc, Colombia, Estonia, Hungary, India,</p> <p>Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Nga, Slovak Republic, Nam Africa, Thi Lan, Th nh k, Ukraine, v Venezuela. - Cc nc pht trin: Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, khu vc ng Euro, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Nht Bn, Hn Quc, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Thy in, Switzerland, i Loan, nh v M.</p> <p>Thng miThng mi th gii c tc pht trin mnh m trong giai on 2005-2007, t mc trung bnh khong 15% nm. Nm 2008, xut khu hng ha tng 15% nm 2008, t 15,8 nghn t USD, cn xut khu dch v tng 11%, t 2,7 nghn t USD.Cc nc mi ni c tc tng ca gi tr thng mi cao hn so vi cc nc pht trin nhng khng nhiu (Hnh 3). Tuy nhin, tc tng ca gi tr thng mi th gii bt u b suy gim mnh t Q2-2008 khi khng hong kinh t bt u. C th, qu 4-2008, xut khu hng ha gim khong (-12%) so vi nm trc cn xut khu dch v gim (-8%). Hnh 3. Thay i trao i thng mi th gii (trung bnh trt ba thng)</p> <p>Ngun: IMF, 2009 Ghi ch: - Cc nc mi ni: Argentina, Brazil , Bulgaria, Chile, Trung Quc, Colombia, Estonia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Nga, Slovak Republic, Nam Africa, Thi Lan, Th nh k, Ukraine v Venezuela. - Cc nc pht trin: Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, khu vc ng Euro, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Nht, Hn Quc, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Thy in, Switzerland, lnh th i Loan, nh v M.</p> <p>Xt v t trng thng mi hng ha, nm 2008, cc nc ang pht trin chim gn 38% trong xut khu hng ha v 34% trong nhp khu hng ha trn th gii. c vn gi v tr l nc ng u th gii v xut khu hng ha (1,47 nghn t USD, bng 9,1% tng gi tr xut khu ca th gii), th hai l Trung Quc (1,43 nghn t USD, bng 8,9% th gii), tip n l M, Nht, v H Lan. M tip tc l nc nhp khu hng ha ln nht th gii (nm 2008 t 2,17 nghn t USD, bng 13,2% tng gi tr nhp khu ca th gii), tip n l c (1,21 nghn t, bng 7,3% th gii), Trung Quc (6,9%), Nht Bn (4,6%), Php (4,3%). H qu, M tr</p> <p>5</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>thnh nc nhp siu hng ha ln nht th gii, ln n 865 t USD nm 2008, v Trung Quc tr thnh nc xut siu hng ha nhiu nht th gii, ln n 295 t USD nm 2008. V thng mi dch v, nm 2008, xut khu ca M t 522 t USD, tng 10% so vi nm 2007, chim 14% trong tng xut khu dch v thng mi th gii. Anh ng th hai, chim 7,6% trong tng xut khu th gii v t 283 t USD nm 2008. Tip l c (235 t, bng 6,3% th gii), Php (135 t USD, bng 4,1% ca th gii) v Nht Bn (144 t USD, chim 3,9% th gii). V nhp khu dch v thng mi, M xp th nht (chim 10,5% nhp khu dch v ca ton th gii), tip l c (8,2% th gii), Anh (5,7% ca th gii), Nht Bn (4,8%), Trung Quc (4,4%, t 152 t USD). Bng 2. Thng mi hng ha th gii theo khu vc v mt s nc tiu biu, 2008Xut khu Gi tr 2008 Th gii Bc M M Canada Mexico Nam v Trung M Brazil Cc nc khc trong khu vc Chu u Khi EU (27 nc) c Php H Lan Lin hip Anh Khi cc quc gia c lp (CIS) Nga Chu Phi Nam Phi Cc nc chu Phi khc Cc nc xut khu du Cc nc khng 133 15 18 15 22 229 16 15 27 28 347 21 21 18 36 137 21 9 31 37 472 561 81 481 21 18 13 19 25 19 13 20 17 18 20 17 33 29 16 32 292 466 99 367 26 17 16 18 31 16 26 13 36 24 12 28 31 27 12 31 1465 609 634 540 458 703 13 8 13 11 6 22 14 7 14 12 16 25 19 11 19 18 -2 20 11 10 15 10 4 35 1206 708 574 556 632 493 12 10 13 11 8 25 17 7 15 15 17 30 16 14 18 14 4 35 14 14 16 10 1 31 6456 5913 12 12 13 13 16 16 12 11 6833 6268 12 12 15 14 16 16 12 12 198 404 17 14 16 23 17 13 23 20 183 413 15 14 23 21 32 23 44 24 15775 2049 1301 456 292 602 Thay i theo nm (%) Trung bnh giai on 00-08 12 7 7 6 7 15 16 13 15 8 17 21 16 11 12 8 9 14 15 16120 10 12 8 7 21 2909 2166 418 323 595 2006 2007 2008 2008 Gi tr Nhp khu Thay i theo nm (%) Trung bnh giai on 00-08 12 7 7 7 7 14 15 11 11 11 15 22 15 6 5 9 10 25 15 7 7 7 9 30 2006 2007 2008</p> <p>6</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanhxut khu du Trung Cn ng Chu Trung Quc Nht n Cc nn kinh t cng nghip mi (4) Cc khu vc khc Cc nc ang pht trin MERCOSUR ASEAN Cc nc chm pht trin (LDCs) 279 990 176 16 11 22 16 17 25 18 12 24 25 15 36 259 936 157 14 12 17 24 14 15 31 13 24 41 21 27 6025 15 20 17 20 5494 15 17 18 21 4355 1428 782 179 1033 13 24 6 20 10 17 27 9 21 15 16 26 10 22 11 15 17 10 22 10 4247 1133 762 292 1093 14 22 9 24 10 16 20 12 21 16 15 21 7 25 11 20 19 22 35 17 1047 19 22 16 36 575 17 12 25 23</p> <p>Ngun: World Bank, (2009), World development indicator dataset</p> <p>Gi cGi c hng tiu dng cui cng trung bnh trn th gii tng mc va phi, t 5% n 8%, t nm 2005 n gia 2008. Tuy nhin, gi c hng ha tiu dng cc nc mi ni tng mnh hn v vi tc ln hn trong giai on ny, t mc khong 6% qu 2-2005 ln n mc 18% trong gn sut nm 2007 v qu 2 - 2008 (Hnh 1.4). Hnh 4. Thay i gi bn l th gii (trung bnh trt 3 thng)</p> <p>Ngun: IMF, 2009. Ghi ch:</p> <p>7</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh - Cc nc mi ni: Argentina, Brazil , Bulgaria, Chile, Trung Quc, Colombia, Estonia, Hungary, India,</p> <p>Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Nga, Slovak Republic, Nam Africa, Thi Lan, Th nh k, Ukraine v Venezuela. - Cc nc pht trin: Australia, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, khu vc ng Euro, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Nht Bn, Hn Quc, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Thy in, Switzerland, lnh th i Loan, Anh v M.</p> <p>Gi c hng tiu dng tng cao c nguyn nhn t s tng mnh gi c nguyn liu u vo. V tng th, gi c hng ha nguyn liu th tng gp 2,5 ln t thng 1/2005 n thng 7/2008, trong ch s gi nhin liu v du th tng gp hn 3 ln, ch s gi kim loi tng 2 ln, nguyn liu thc phm tng 1,86 ln v sn phm nng nghip tng 1,24 ln. Sau khi kinh t ri vo suy thoi vo cui qu 3-2008, gi c ca hu ht cc hng ha nguyn liu bt u suy gim mnh. Gi du th, sn phm nng nghip v kim loi ri xung mc gi ca nm 2005. Cc mc gi hng ha nguyn liu bt u tng tr li vo thng 2-2009 v cho n thng 7-2009 th hu ht t mc gi ca nm 2006. Hnh 5. Ch s gi c mt s hng ha nguyn liu c bn giai on 2000-2009 (01/2005=100)350 300 250 200 150 100 50 001-00 07-00 01-01 07-01 01-02 07-02 01-03 07-03 01-04 07-04 01-05 07-05 01-06 07-06 01-07 07-07 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09</p> <p>Hng ha Sn phm nng nghip</p> <p>Nng lng Thc phm</p> <p>Du th Kim loi</p> <p>Ngun: http://www.indexmundi.com/ Ch thch: Ch s gi hng ha c bn, 2005 = 100, bao gm cc ch s gi nhin liu v phi nhin liu. Ch s gi hng ha nng sn, 2005 = 100, bao gm cc ch s gi g cha ch bin, bng, len, v da cha thuc. Ch s gi nguyn liu thc phm, 2005 = 100, bao gm ch s gi u tng, du thc vt, tht ln, thy sn, ng, chui, v cam. Ch s gi du th, 2005 = 100, trung bnh ca ba ch s gi giao ngay; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh. Ch s gi kim loi, 2005 = 100, bao gmch s gi ng, nhm, qung st, km, niken, thic, ch, v uranium. Ch s gi nhin liu (nng lng), 2005 = 100, bao gm ch s gi ca du th, kh t nhin v than .</p> <p>u t trc tip nc ngoi u t trc tip nc ngoi l hot ng kinh t quan trng th hin khuynh hng pht trin v dch chuyn ca ngun lc kinh t quan trng nht l vn sn xut. Nhn t ny c vai tr nh hng nn kinh t th gii nhiu hn so vi cc dng vn u t gin tip, v dng vn</p> <p>8</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>u t gin tip thng mang tnh ngn hn v bt n hn, t ng gp trc tip vo qu trnh pht trin nng lc sn xut thc s ca quc gia hay khu vc. Do , trong phn ny, cc kha cnh khc nhau ca dng FDI ton cu c kho st chi tit. FDI theo khu vc kinh t Sau giai on suy gim 2000-2003, u t nc ngoi ton cu ly li c tng ca thp k 1990. Dng vn FDI ton cu tng t mc xp x 600 t USD nm 2003 ln n 1979 t USD nm 2007. Sau , FDI trn ton th gii bt u suy gim, c bit cc nc pht trin. C th, FDI u t vo cc nc pht trin gim 29% nm 2008 xung cn 962 t USD (Hnh 1.6). Na u nm 2009, lng FDI vo cc nc ny gim t 30-50% so vi na sau nm 2008. Ngc li, lng FDI vo cc nc ang pht trin v cc nn kinh t chuyn i tng ln lt t 27% ln 37% v t 5% ln 7% nm 2008 (Hnh 1.7). FDI u t vo mt s nc tng ng k nh chu Phi (27%), M Latinh v vng Caribbean (13%). Lng vn FDI u t vo cc nc ASEAN tng 17%. i vi cc nc km pht trin nht v cc quc o nh ang pht trin, FDI vo cc nc ny tng 43% nm 2008 ln 61 t USD, v chim ti 8% trong tng lng vn FDI vo cc nc ang pht trin v cc nn kinh t chuyn i (nm 2007 l 7%).</p> <p>9</p> <p>Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>Hnh 6. Dng vo FDI (inflows) trn ton th gii v theo khu vc, giai on 1980-2008 (t USD)</p> <p>Ngun: UNCTAD, Global investment report 2009</p> <p>Hnh 7. C cu FDI (dng vo) theo khu vc trn th gii% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008</p> <p>cc nc ang pht trin</p> <p>nc pht trin</p> <p>cc nc cn li</p> <p>Ngun: UNCTAD, world investment report 2009</p> <p>C cu hnh thc u t V c cu hnh thc u t, FDI nm 2008 so vi nm trc gim mnh phn vn gp (equity) v phn cc dng vn khc (Hnh 1.8), trong khi phn ti u t (reinvestment earnings) vn tng. S cc v mua li v sp nhp (M&amp;A) ln gim ti 21% nm 2008 vi gi tr gim 31%, trong M gim 39% M, EU gim 56%, v Nht gim 43%. Nm 2008 c ti 41 v mua bn sp nhp ln cc nc ang pht trin (tng 6 v so vi nm 2007). chu Phi v chu , gi tr M&amp;A tng ti 13%. Tuy nhin, n na u nm 2009, s v M&amp;A cc nc chu v cc nc ang pht trin khc cng st gim ng k. iu ny th hin lng vn d tha trong cc nn kinh t khng cn na do kinh t ton cu bt u vo suy thoi. Cc cng ty ln buc phi gi li lng vn mnh c tin hnh d phng cng nh ti cu trc ni b.</p> <p>10 Phn II: Cc vn kinh t v kinh doanh</p> <p>Hnh 8. C cu hnh thc dng vo FDI trn ton th gii (t USD)1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -100</p> <p>2000</p> <p>2001</p> <p>2002</p> <p>2003 Vn gp</p> <p>2004 Ti u t</p> <p>2005</p> <p>2006</p> <p>2007</p> <p>2008</p> <p>2009-Q1</p> <p>Cc dng vn khc</p> <p>Ngun: UNCTAD,(2009), World Investment Report 2009</p> <p>FDI theo ngnh FDI hu ht cc ngnh cng nghip u gim ng k nm 2008, ngoi tr mt s ngnh nh thuc l, ung v nguyn liu c bn. Do thiu s liu v phn r FDI theo ngnh, chng ta c th s dng s liu v M&amp;A xem xt cc xu hng. Bng 3. Cc ngnh c M&amp;A xuyn quc gia tng nm 2008 (triu USD) Ngnh Gi tr bn thun theo ngnh Nng, lm ng nghip Khai m v du kh Thc phm, ung v thuc l Than cc, xng-du, v nhin liu ht nhn Xe c gii v cc thit b vn ti Cc cng c chnh xc Cc dch v kinh doanh Qun tr cng v quc phng Cc dch v khc Gi tr mua thun theo ngnh Nng, lm ng nghip Thc phm, ung v thuc l May mc v da In n v xut bn Sn phm cao su v nha Sn phm khai khong phi kim loi Xe c gii v cc thit b vn ti...</p>