Sulphur Market Outlook - Fertilizer Industry Round Table | 2016 - Sulphur...Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference ... ‐ Founded in 2002, Integer Research is a leading ...

  • Published on
    20-Mar-2018

  • View
    219

  • Download
    7

Embed Size (px)

Transcript

  • SulphurMarketOutlook

    MeenaChauhanHeadofSulphurandSulphuricAcidIntegerResearch

    TheFertilizerInstituteOutlookandTechnologyconferenceFortLauderdale,Florida

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Foundedin2002,IntegerResearchisaleadingconsultancyinthefertilizersector

    PublicationsConsultancy

    NitrogenPhosphatesPotashSulphurandsulphuricacid

    LondonBeijingTokyo

    ICISLMCInternationalEnvironExpertsubconsultants

    SERVICES PRODUCTS GEOGRAPHY PARTNERS

  • Sulphur market overview

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Sulphur:changingmarketsentimentfrombyproducttoyellowgold

  • www.integerresearch.com

    SulphurpriceshistoricallyremainedbelowUS$100/tonneacrossmajorbenchmarks,butthecommoditybubblein2007/2008changedthis

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    Jan2007

    Jan2006

    Jan2005

    Jan2004

    Jan2003

    Jan2008

    Jan2009

    MiddleEastFOB

    Pricesstartedincreasingin2007,assupplytightenedanddownstreammarketswerealsobuoyed

    AverageMiddleEastsulphurprices,20032016

    Source:Integer,ICIS

    US$/tonne

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Sulphurprices,September2014 October2016

    Sulphurquarterlyaverage prices(US$ pertonne)

    Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 %YoY Q3

    ChinaCFR 168 153 177 151 150 131 99 87 79 47%

    MiddleEastFOB 161 140 172 144 144 124 97 80 73 49%

    VancouverFOBspot 155 146 169 137 143 120 96 82 74 48%

    US$/tonne

    Source:Integer,ICIS

    Recenttrendsinglobalsulphurpricing

    60708090

    100110120130140150160170180190

    Oct15

    Sep15

    Aug15

    Jul1

    5

    Jun15

    Oct16

    May15

    Apr15

    Mar15

    Jan15

    Dec14

    Nov

    14

    Oct14

    Sep14

    Feb15

    Sep16

    Aug16

    Jul1

    6

    Jun16

    May16

    Apr16

    Mar16

    Feb16

    Jan16

    Dec15

    Nov

    15

    VancouverFOBspot

    MiddleEastFOB

    ChinaCFR

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer

    Recentmarketdevelopments

    Europe/FSU Consolidation in the chemicals sector Erosion of production in West Europe Kazakhstan project progress

    Americas Fort McMurray wildfires US sulphur production rebound Mosaics melter in Tampa Brazilian import demand easing Cuba sulphuric acid plant MiddleEast,Africa&Asia

    Climbing inventories in China Barzan/Qatar progress and delays Indian sugar season Morocco processed phosphates expansion

  • Supply

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Milliontonnes

    Source:Integer

    TheriseinMiddleEastsulphurproductionhasmaterialisedin2016,tobringtheregiontothetopglobalranking

    70

    45

    60

    55

    50

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    65

    2.5

    13.9

    1.3

    +6.1%

    2016

    63.4

    2.3

    15.8

    11.3

    10.7

    3.92.6

    2.31.3

    2015

    14.3

    59.8

    13.4

    10.3

    10.3

    3.9 SouthEastAsia

    Oceania

    CentralEurope

    Africa

    EastAsia

    FSU

    WestEurope

    SouthAsia

    NorthAmerica

    MiddleEast

    LatinAmerica

    Sulphursupplybyregion,20152016

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Milliontonnes

    Source:Integer

    Gasbasedsulphurproductionhascontinuedtogrowthroughtheyear,forecasttorepresentover50%ofglobaloutput

    65

    60

    55

    50

    45

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    63.4

    2016

    15.8

    13.9

    11.3

    10.7

    3.9

    2.62.3

    1.30.9

    GlobalSulphurProduction,2016

    Other

    5.0%

    Gasbasedsulphur

    51.6%

    Oilbasedsulphur

    43.4%

    Globalsulphur productionbytype(%)

    2012 2013 2014 2015Oil based 45 45 45 45Gasbased 49 49 49 49Other 6 6 6 6

    NorthAmericaMiddleEast

    FSUEastAsiaWestEuropeSouthAsiaLatinAmericaCentralEuropeSouthEastAsiaAfricaOceania

  • www.integerresearch.com

    US$/bbl

    Whatdoesthelowoilpriceenvironmentmeanforthesulphurindustry?

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    Jan16

    Dec15

    Apr16

    Oct16

    Sep16

    Aug16

    Jul1

    6

    Jun16

    May16

    Mar16

    Feb16

    Oct14

    Sep14

    Aug14

    Jul1

    4

    Jun14

    Nov

    15

    Oct15

    Sep15

    Aug15

    Jul1

    5

    Jun15

    May15

    Apr15

    Mar15

    Feb15

    Jan15

    Dec14

    Nov

    14

    +56.3%

    Brentcrudeoilprice,June2014 October2016

    Source:Integer,Bloomberg

    Brentcrudepriceshavebeenrisingsincethestartof2016,

    aidingamorestableoutlookbutdownwardpressureremains

  • www.integerresearch.com

    USA:TotalsulphurproductionbyPADD(15),forH12015vsH12016

    SulphurproductionintheMidwestandGulfCoastcontinuestorecover,leadingtoanetincreaseinUSsulphuroutput

    10383

    H12016

    7

    1107

    H12015

    90

    SulphurfromPetroleumandCoke

    SulphurfromNaturalGas

    654 710

    H12016

    6617

    H12015

    7144

    H12016

    1572,624

    2,430

    194

    H12015

    2,747

    2,590

    673 648

    279 269

    H12015

    917952

    H12016

    Source:Integer,USGS

    PADD1:EastCoast

    PADD2:Midwest

    PADD3:GulfCoast

    PADD4+5:RockyMountain/WestCoast

    000tonnes

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Millionbbl/d

    Asmanyoilsandsprojectshavebecomeunfeasibleinthelowoilpriceenvironment,theoutlookforCanadianenergyhasshifted

    5.0

    6.5

    6.0

    5.5

    2.5

    4.5

    4.0

    3.5

    3.0

    2.0

    1.5

    1.0

    0.5

    0.0

    5.0

    2030

    3.7

    0.3

    0.60.1

    0.3

    1.1

    202920282027202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012

    Pentanes/Condensate

    Extragrowthanticipatedin2014forecast

    Oilsands(operating+inconstruction)

    ConventionalHeavy

    ConventionalLightandMedium

    EasternCanada

    Source:Integer,CAPP(June2016)

    Canadiancrudeoilproductionforecast,2012 2030

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Milliontonnes

    Canadiangasproductionisexpectedtocontinuetodecrease,leadingtoanetdeclineinsulphuroutputforNorthAmericaintheoutlook

    0

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    5.6

    3.0

    2.1

    0.6

    2013

    5.9

    3.3

    6.3

    2.1

    2.0

    0.6

    0.6

    2014

    2.0

    0.6

    2011

    2.1

    0.6 5.4

    2.8

    2015

    6.0

    3.5

    2012

    3.7

    Oilsands GasOil

    Source:Integer

    Canadiansulphurproduction,2011 2015

    Limitedgrowthfromtheoilsandssector

    Depletionofwellsandchallengingeconomics

    ImpactonsulphurexportsfromVancouver

    Utilizationoflongtermsulphurstorage

    Increaseinformingfacilities

  • Trade: changing dynamics

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer,GTIS

    Chinaremainsacentralfocusforsulphurtrade

    Milliontonnes

    10

    8

    9

    12

    1

    0

    11

    13

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2007 2008 2009

    +6.7%9.6

    12.2

    JanSept2016

    9.5

    2010

    10.5 10.6

    2012

    11.2

    2011

    11.9

    2014

    10.2

    2013

    9.4

    JanSept2015

    8.8

    2015

    8.4

    AnnualChinesesulphurimports,2007 9M2016

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer,GTIS

    Chinasupplysourcescontinuetoshiftthrough2016.SaudiArabiaremainsthenumberonesupplierwhilemoltensulphursupplyfromJapanandSouthKoreaincreasedbyover30%

    Milliontonnes

    0.1

    0.6

    0.9

    1.5

    0.2

    0.8

    0.0

    1.2

    0.3

    1.3

    1.0

    0.4

    1.1

    0.5

    1.4

    0.7

    Aug16

    1.0

    Jul1

    6

    0.9

    Jun16

    Sep16

    Aug15

    Jan16

    Dec15

    1.2

    0.9

    Apr16

    1.1

    1.3Jul1

    51.3

    Mar16

    Feb16

    1.1

    1.21.2

    May16

    1.2

    Nov

    15

    Sep15

    1.4

    0.9

    0.7

    1.1

    0.7

    0.8

    May15

    0.8

    1.1

    Oct15

    Feb15

    Jan15

    Mar15

    1.1

    Apr15

    0.9

    Jun15

    Iran

    Qatar

    SaudiArabia

    UAE

    RestoftheWorld

    Canada

    Turkmenistan

    India

    Kazakhstan

    SouthKorea

    Japan

    Chinamonthlysulphurimports,January2015 September2016

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer,GTIS

    Moroccansulphurimportshavegrownthroughtheyearasnewprocessedphosphatescapacityhasbeenbroughtonline

    Milliontonnes

    0.4

    0.1

    0.6

    0.5

    0.3

    0.2

    0.0

    Jan16

    0.30

    Jan15

    0.36

    Jul1

    5

    Jul1

    6

    Aug16

    0.55

    0.42 0.430.46

    Aug15

    Feb16

    0.31

    Feb15

    0.34Ap

    r16

    0.44Ap

    r15

    0.35

    Mar16

    0.45

    Mar15

    0.42

    0.30

    Jun16

    0.42

    Jun15

    0.43

    May16

    0.46

    May15

    Spain

    Poland

    Russia

    UnitedStates

    UAESaudiArabia

    RestoftheWorld

    Moroccomonthlysulphurimports,January August2015vs2016

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer,GTIS

    Moroccansulphurimportshavegrownthroughtheyearasnewprocessedphosphatescapacityhasbeenbroughtonline

    Milliontonnes

    0.4

    0.1

    0.6

    0.5

    0.3

    0.2

    0.0

    Jan16

    0.30

    Jan15

    0.36

    Jul1

    5

    Jul1

    6

    Aug16

    0.55

    0.42 0.430.46

    Aug15

    Feb16

    0.31

    Feb15

    0.34Ap

    r16

    0.44Ap

    r15

    0.35

    Mar16

    0.45

    Mar15

    0.42

    0.30

    Jun16

    0.42

    Jun15

    0.43

    May16

    0.46

    May15

    Spain

    Poland

    Russia

    UnitedStates

    UAESaudiArabia

    RestoftheWorld

    Moroccomonthlysulphurimports,January August2015vs2016

    ImportsfromtheUAEhaveincreased48%

    TonnesfromPolandhavealsoincreased,upby23%

    ShipmentsfromtheUShaveincreasedsignificantly,upby63%

    Russianimportshavedroppedby32%

    27%dropintradefromKuwait

    83%dropfromSaudiArabia.VolumesfromEuropehavealsobeendeclining

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer,PortMetro

    WeexpecttheUSshareofCanadiansulphurtradetodeclineintheoutlook

    SulphurexportsfromCanada,2015

    UnitedStates

    Mexico

    Brazil

    Chile Australia

    China

    Canada

    30%

    10%

    1%

    5%20%

    20%

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Vancouvermonthlysulphurexports,January August2016

    Source:Integer,PortMetro,CompanySources

    Vancouverexportshaveimprovedfollowingtheproductiondisruptionearlierintheyear.ExportstoChinahavegainedgroundthrough2016

    000tonnes

    1,400

    2,000

    1,800

    1,600

    1,200

    1,000

    800

    600

    400

    200

    0

    +4.5%

    Jan Aug2016

    1,787

    566

    454

    135

    110

    109

    10797

    5847

    38 36246

    Jan Aug2015

    1,710

    541

    491

    120

    113

    214

    8033

    6948

    China

    Australia

    Cuba

    Chile

    Mexico

    NewCaledonia

    Indonesia

    Israel

    Brazil

    Morocco

    USA

    NewZealand

    Guatemala

    Vietnam

    DespitethedisruptiontooilsandsproductioninQ22016duetotheFortMcMurraywildfires,sulphurexportsoutofVancouverhavefirmed

  • Demand

  • www.integerresearch.com

    Milliontonnes

    Source:Integer

    Sulphurdemandissettogrowbyover2%yearonyearin2016,ledbydevelopmentsinAfrica

    55

    5

    0

    65

    60

    50

    45

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    1.3 1.3

    +2.4%

    2016

    61.8

    18.1

    10.0

    9.3

    4.8

    4.7

    3.8

    3.63.2

    1.71.3 1.3

    2015

    60.4

    18.0

    10.0

    8.4

    4.8

    4.5

    3.73.6

    3.11.7

    EastAsia

    NorthAmerica

    Africa

    FSU

    LatinAmerica

    SouthAsia

    WestEurope

    MiddleEast

    SoutheastAsia

    Oceania

    CentralEurope

    Sulphurdemandbyregion,20152016

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer

    Integerforecastsaround4milliontonnesofsulphurdemandwillemergeoverthenexttenyearsinthenonfertilizersector

    240

    335

    1,738

    174

    -220

    4 ,037

    1,102

    404

    Netaddition2026from2016

    EastAsiaFSUNorthAmericaSouthAsiaAfricaOceaniaSouthEastAsia

    79

    MiddleEast

    71

    LatinAmerica

    66

    WestEurope

    48

    CentralEurope

    000tonnes

    NonfertilizerdemandforsulphurisexpectedtodecreaseinCentralEurope

    Netsulphurnonfertilizerdemandgrowthbetween2016and2026,splitbyregion

    EastAsia,ledbyChina,andtheFSU,ledbyKazakhstanshowthelargestgrowthovertheforecastperiod

  • Global sulphur balance

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer

    Themarketremainslargelybalancedinourupsidescenario,whilethebasecasesurplushoversaround34milliontonnesthroughthemediumtermforecastperiod

    Milliontonnes Globalsulphursupply/demandbalance,2015 2026

    4

    3

    2

    0

    1

    2020

    11

    2016 20262015

    22

    4

    11

    3

    SlowgrowthscenarioBasecasescenario

  • Conclusions

  • www.integerresearch.comSource:Integer

    Keyfactorsinfluencinglongtermsulphurmarkettrends

    Utilization oflongtermsulphurstorage

    Investmentinenergysector shiftsinoilpricestoimpact

    Development inprocessedphosphatesmarkets

    Enduserabilitytoswitchbetweensulphurandsulphuricacid

    Metalsmarketsandcommoditypricingfornonfertilizerdemand

    ContinuedriseofnewMiddleEastsupply

    DomesticsulphurproductioninChina

  • ThankyouforyourattentionAnyquestions?

    AlldatainthepresentationistakenfromIntegersSulphurMarketDynamicsService

    MeenaChauhanHeadofSulphurandSulphuricAcidMeena.Chauhan@integerresearch.com+44(0)2071933990

Recommended

View more >