The Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population

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The Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population. Instructor : . Group Members: 2009210538 2009210561 2009210568 2009220200. OUTLINE. PART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p>The Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Population Group Members: 2009210538 2009210561 2009210568 2009220200 Instructor: </p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>OUTLINEPART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology )PART 2:Descriptive Analysis PART 3:Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 4:Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 5:Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 6:Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 7:Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis) PART 8: Conclusion</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>INTRODUCTION--BackgroundBefore 1950 China had demographic characteristics of a pre-modern society with high dead rates and high fertility rates. This situation produced certain stability in population size or, at least, leads to a slow increase. </p><p>After the foundation of The Peoples Republic of China in 1949, China entered its demographic transition: first dead rates began to fall rapidly and second, fertility remained for many years at about an average of six children per woman. As a result of this China experienced rapid population growth due to the high number of children born, a sharp decline of baby dead rate.</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>INTRODUCTION-China Population Development</p><p>Chart2</p><p>3200</p><p>6000</p><p>5000</p><p>9000</p><p>12000</p><p>20000</p><p>30000</p><p>40000</p><p>46000</p><p>60193</p><p>80000</p><p>103188</p><p>Population (10k persons)</p><p>China Population Development</p><p>Sheet1</p><p>10K</p><p>AD 1100AD 1600AD 1800AD 1840AD 1911195319771982</p><p>320060005000900012000200003000040000460006019380000103188</p><p>Sheet1</p><p>Population (10k persons)</p><p>China Population Development</p><p>Sheet2</p><p>Sheet3</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>INTRODUCTION-China Population TodayNow China has a population over 1.3 billion (2007), that is nearly 1/5 the world population. Most of the population are in the east (94%), which are more developed, and enjoying a relatively lower dead rate, and a lower baby dead rate</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>INTRODUCTION--Objective Our report would like to apply the statistics method with substantial evidence data got from CHINA POPULATION STATISTICS YEARBOOK (1995-2006) , and proceed the research and the analysis on the male-female birth rate, fertility rate and dead rate among different area (city, town, village), and different years, to have a trend analysis and prediction on the total China population.</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>INTRODUCTION--TerminologyCity, Town &amp; Village: City and Town in China is administratively defined as statutory cities and statutory towns judging from the population, economic, public finance and Infrastructure four aspects. Village is referred to the areas other than cities and towns. Birth Rate (or crude birth rate) :The number of live births per 1,000 population in a given year. Not to be confused with the growth rate.Death Rate (or crude death rate) :The number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given year.Sex Ratio:The number of males per 100 females in a population.Fertility RateThe number of live births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 or 15-49 years in a given year. ----Definition from Administrative Office of the State Council &amp;Population Reference Bureau, USA </p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>OUTLINEPART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology )PART 2:Descriptive Analysis PART 3:Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 4:Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 5:Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 6:Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 7:Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis) PART 8: Conclusion</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-VariablesPopulation size of China: Fertility rate() 1994-2005Male-female birth rateF:100 1994-2005Male (female) ratio of a certain age: % the percentage of the male number of total male population.Death rate: </p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>The data were collected from internet ,such as CHINA POPULATION STATISTICS YEARBOOK (1995-2006) () etc.DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-Data Sheet</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>Observation: Continuous increase since 1962 Increase rate decrease last 20 years</p><p>DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS-Population size</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>The age distribution of fertility is different.The birth peak for village comes earlier than city.And for all ages the village has higher birth rate.DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS- Fertility rateObservation</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>Jumping town data and stationary city and village dataAll exceed the rational range (102 to 107)</p><p>DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS- Male/female rate of newbornObservation</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>Does there are any gender choice?Does female lives longer?DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS- Male-Female rate &amp; death rate(2005)</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>OUTLINEPART 1:Introduction (Background, Objective, Terminology )PART 2:Descriptive Analysis PART 3:Hypothesis Test of Male-Female Birth Rate (Descriptive date, Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 4:Fertility Comparison (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 5:Analysis of Ratio (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 6:Analysis of Dead Rate (Descriptive date , Exploratory date , Cause analysis) PART 7:Time Series Analysis of Total Population Size (Trend analysis, Model based analysis) PART 8: Conclusion</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>Data selection mainly survey and observation 10 variables 27,000 data points</p><p>Data process integrate original data(15 forms) into one form recalculate them to get new data select data points to build a new sample e.g. fertility rate , death rateMale-Female Birth Rate--Data</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>Main basis of population balance, of great importance.Number of baby boys when 100 baby girls:(year:1994 -2005. type: city, town, village. 36 data points.)</p><p>One-way ANOVA: Male-female birth rate versus type (city, town and village)</p><p>Population Balance: Male-Female Birth Rate</p><p>IE @Applied Statistics, Group Report</p><p>Population Balance: Male-Female Birth RateConclusions and cause analysis:</p><p>Three types own significant difference of gender balances and choices.P-value = 0.000</p></li></ul>

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