Phan Tich Ki Thuat

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  • 1. Ti liu ny c Kalifa Kresarioh tng hp t nhiu ngun trn internet
  • 2. Stock market Technical Analysis Trong nhng trng phi dng cch phn tch bit c phn ln hay xung ang thnh hnh hin nay th trng phi phn tch k thut ang p o nhng trng phi khc.Nh cng ngh thng tin v Internet, cch phn tch k thut ''ng quang'' v n cho php nhng ngi s dng rnh r phng php ny mua bn mau l vi mt s vn tng i nh trong mt thi gian ngn. Nh bc hc Isaac Newton, ngi khm ph ra trng lc ca tri t v tng tn gia bi sn v chng khon au n chp nhn: C th o c s chuyn ng ca nhng hnh tinh ch khng th o c c mc in r ca con ngi. Phn tch k thut - cch khai thc biu gi c mua bn chng khon da vo tm l con ngi trn th trng chng khon khng th chnh xc. Ai mun dng phn tch k thut tm mt cch phn tch cho h thng mi phi v mua bn s mi l nhng ngi i tm l Diu Bng trong th trng chng khon. H s mt thi gian v tht vng. Nhng tn phn tch k thut phi c mt chin lc qun l ti chnh l mt m li ba, bn th mi sng cn trn th trng c. Nhng ngi bi xch bo ming hn, cn ni rng phn tch k thut ch c th gii thch c qu kh m khng th gii thch c ng i gi c trong tng lai. H ni ng. Nhng h ch ng c mt phn. V cng bit r qu kh mt c phn chng no th ngi ta d c on ng i ca c phn chng . Cng nh cuc sng hng ngy, cng bit r tnh nt ca mt ngi th chng ta li cng on c phn ng ca ngi . 2 Kalifa Kresarioh / kalifa.ali.al.vina@gmail.com
  • 3. Stock market Technical Analysis Mc lc I.Khi qut chung v Phn tch k thut 4 1-Cc quan im v Phn tch k thut 4 2-Mt s nh ngha c a ra v Phn tch k thut 5 3-S khc nhau gia d bo bng phn tch k thut v phn tch c bn 7 II.Nhng gi nh c s v nhng bn lun xung quanh vic p dng Phn tch 8 k thut vo th trng chng khon. 1-Nhng gi nh c s 8 2-Nhng bn lun xung quanh vic p dng Phn tch k thut vo th trng 9 chng khon III.Cc l thuyt c bn trong phn tch k thut 16 1-L thuyt Dow 16 2-Mt s l thuyt khc 27 IV.Nhng c s cn bn ca Phn tch k thut 30 V.H thng cng c phn tch k thut 33 1-Cc dng th 34 2-Xu th, ng xu th, Knh 42 3-Mc hon li - Khung giao dch - H tr v Khng c 44 4-Cc hnh mu k thut 49 5-Cc ch s phn tch k thut 58 3 Kalifa Kresarioh / kalifa.ali.al.vina@gmail.com
  • 4. Stock market Technical Analysis I.Khi qut chung v Phn tch k thut Lch s ca Phn tch k thut bt ngun t cch y hn 100 nm, t mt ngi tn l Charles H. Dow. ng l ngi sng lp ln tp ch The Wall Street Journal. Sau nhiu nm nghin cu, nm 1884 ng a ra ch s bnh qun ca gi ng ca ca 12 c phiu quan trng. William Peter Hamilton l ngi thc s mang li sc sng cho nhng nghin cu ca Dow bng vic tip tc nghin cu v xut bn cun sch The Stock Market Barometer (Phong v biu th trng chng khon) vo nm 1922. Sut nhng nm 1920 v 1930, Richard W. Schabacker l ngi i su vo nhng nghin cu ca Dow v Hamilton, Schabacker l ngi a ra khi nim u tin v Phn tch k thut. Schabacker tng l ch bin ca tp ch Forbes ni ting. ng ch ra rng nhng du hiu m l thuyt Dow a ra c vi ch s bnh qun th trng vn gi nguyn gi tr v tm quan trng khi p dng vo th ca tng c phiu ring l. iu ny c ng th hin v chng minh trong cun sch ca mnh: Stock Market Theory and Practice, Technical Market Analysis and Stock Market Profit. Nh vy nhng c s u tin ca Phn tch k thut xut hin t trong l thuyt Dow, nhng phi n Schabacker ngi cha ca Phn tch k thut hin i tip l Edward v Magee vi Technical Analysis of Stock Trend (cun sch c ti bn 8 ln) v ngy nay l John Murphy, Jack Schwager, Martin Pring, th mi thc s ra i ci tn Phn tch k thut v c nng cao, tng kt thnh mt h thng l lun quan trng trong phn tch u t trn th trng chng khon ni ring v th trng ti chnh ni chung. 1-Cc quan im v Phn tch k thut Nguyn l ca thnh cng trong u t chng khon l da trn gi nh rng trong tng lai ngi ta s tip tc lp li nhng sai lm m h mc phi trong qu kh. (Edwin Lefevre, Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator) Th trng chng khon hay bt k th trng no u khng bao gi phn nh ng gi tr thc ca mt hng ha c trao i bn trong m n phn nh gi tr m nh u t nhn thc c v cho rng n ng gi nh th. Gi ca bt k mt chng khon cho no u khng ch ra mi quan h thc t gia cung v cu m l phn nh k vng tng lai ca cung v cu. Vy Phn tch k thut l g? Nhiu nh quan st coi Phn tch k thut l mt tp hp nhng mnh khe v cn n s tp luyn nghim tc thc s. Nhng ngi vn dng kt qu sau qu trnh tp luyn y cn c gi l php s. Nhiu ngi hiu v tnh ng n ca cng vic ny nhng h vn t ra cu hi v tnh chnh xc trong d bo cc xu th chnh trn th trng chng khon v th trng cc loi hng ha khc. Bn thn trong nhng ngi s dng Phn tch k thut cng khng c mt s thng nht v quan im v bn cht ca Phn tch k thut 4 Kalifa Kresarioh / kalifa.ali.al.vina@gmail.com
  • 5. Stock market Technical Analysis v Phn tch k thut c th dc hiu thun ty l mt khoa hc m cng c th c hiu l mt ngh thut. Hiu mt cch rng nht th Phn tch k thut lun c gng nghin cu tnh trng sc khe hin ti ca ton th trng hay ca mi chng khon vi mc ch l nhm d bo bin ng tng lai ca gi bng cch da trn nhng kinh nghim c c vi cc hnh mu k thut (hay m hnh k thut) th trng xut hin trong qu kh v p dng li khi c m hnh tng t xut hin. Gi thuyt cn bn trong Phn tch k thut l nhng kin thc c v gi v hnh mu th trong qu kh s c s dng tham kho nhm xc nh gi c xu th nh th no trong tng lai i vi mi th trng c th. 2-Mt s nh ngha c a ra v Phn tch k thut : + Nick v Barbara Apostolous nh ngha Phn tch k thut l qu trnh d bo bin ng gi chng khon trong tng lai da trn c s phn tch nhng bin ng trong qu kh ca gi v cc p lc cung cu c nh hng n gi. Tuy nhin nh ngha ny lm cho Phn tch k thut dng nh tr ln gn tng ng vi phn tch c bn - l qu trnh c lng gi tr chng khon hay hng ha bng cch phn tch cc iu kin kinh t ti chnh c bn mi cng ty, mi ngnh,quot; + Norman Fosback, trong cun Stock Market Logic: Nu nh bn cht ca phn tch c bn l vic xc nh gi tr v xc nh mua hay bn c phiu khi gi trn th trng sai lch khi gi tr thc, th Phn tch k thut li da trn 2 gi thuyt c bn khc hon ton. Th nht, nhng c lng mang tnh ch quan l qu m h v khng thch hp v th hai l dao ng gi trong tng lai c th d on c qua vic phn tch bin ng gi trong qu kh, phn tch mi quan h cung - cu v mt s yu t khc c nh hng trc tip n gi c th trng + Clifford Pistolese a ra nh ngha kh y nh sau: Phn tch k thut l vic s dng biu gi v khi lng giao dch lm c s cho cc quyt nh u t. C s cn bn cho hng tip cn ny l ch cc thng tin v gi v khi lng trn biu phn nh tt c nhng g din ra v vic mua hay bn mt loi c phiu. V biu c phiu tm tt v phn nh kt qu thc ca cc giao dch thc hin nn Phn tch k thut l c s duy nht cho vic ra cc quyt nh u t + R. W. Schabacker, ngi cha ca Phn tch k thut hin i m t Phn tch k thut nh mt mn khoa hc mi. Schabacker gii thch rng tt c nhng yu t phn tch c bn hp l u mang n tnh trng th trng di xung v chng c nh gi, t ng a vo v lu li trong cc mc cn bng thc trn biu chng khon. ng cn m t su hn c tnh ca biu c phiu hay biu cc loi hng ha khc nh l mt b nh hon ho ca th trng v khng nh chc chn rng gi tr ch yu ca mt biu gi vt ra ngoi ngha thc t l mt bc tranh ghi li nhng giao dch trong qu kh. nh ngha c th ca Schabacker nh sau:Vic Phn tch k thut cc bin ng th trng l mt kha cnh ca phn tch, da trn c s nhng hin tng pht sinh t chnh th trng, b qua nhng tc ng ca cc yu t trong phn tch c bn v cc yu t khc. 5 Kalifa Kresarioh / kalifa.ali.al.vina@gmail.com
  • 6. Stock market Technical Analysis Trn thc t Phn tch k thut c th c gii thch n gin ch l pht biu mt cch i lp li vi vic xem xt theo trng phi phn tch c bn. Kha cnh c bn ca phn tch th trng nhm mi quan tm c bit vo nhng yu t nh doanh nghip pht hnh c phiu, vic kinh doanh ca doanh nghip, tim nng, hat ng trong qu kh, thu nhp hin ti v tng lai, bng cn i k ton, sc mnh ti chnh, cht lng ca i ng lnh o doanh nghip, Cc yu t k thut l nhng g c th c coi l tng th cc yu t nh hng n kh nng bin ng v gi c phiu sau khi b qua cc yu t thuc phn tch c bn v nhng yu t khng thc s c nh hng. + Cn theo Edward v Magee th: Phn tch k thu