Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update

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"Summer/Fall 2013 Economic Update" webinar slides presented September 12, 2013, by Kenneth Hunter on behalf of American Society for Public Administration (ASPA)

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Economic Update

Summer/Fall 2013Economic OverviewPresented ByKenneth Hunter, MPAABFM Executive CommitteeEditor, Line ItemSeptember 12, 2013

Evaluating the Economy

3Sources for Information

4Understanding Productivity

5

The market certainly recovered!

Wheres the Wealth?14

Are Markets Stressed?

Treasury Yields Ticking UpwardDollars Position Helping Exports

Housing Market Slowly Recovering

Mortgage Rates Climbing

Energy Costs Trending Upward

Where do we stand on volatility?

Crude OilGoldS&P 500How are Individuals Doing?

23

Published 9/6/2013

Unemployment Claims DOWN!

Hiring Resumed (Sort Of)Hiring Resumed (Sort Of)

The Biggest Shift of All!Discouragement Still a BIG Issue!

Earnings are Improving

Saez, Emmanuel. Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2012 preliminary estimates). http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf (September 3, 2013)Its Been a TOUGH Recession!

Gasoline Prices in PerspectiveWhat It Means for Government

35Federal Debt Keeps Growing!

36Hows the Fed Helping?

37

State & Local Condition BetterLocal Pensions are Underfunded

39Local Pensions are Underfunded

40Looking forward?

41OutlookUS GDP Growth2.3% annualized rate for 3rd Quarter1.9% growth for 2013 (down from earlier 2.4%)3.0% growth in 2014

Probability of Feds Taper~45% during rest of 2013~80% in 2014

Thank You!Kenneth HunterKenneth.Hunter@nclgba.org

www.ABFM.org