Парадоксы теории вероятностей - мифы и рифы теории вероятностей ( скептики 2014)

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2014

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<ul><li> 1. Igor Kleiner - 2014 , , PLEASURES OF PROBABILITY </li></ul> <p> 2. 3. 45, 2, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tez_PS3H6s0 4. ? 5. ? 6. ? 7. ? - 8. ? - 9. ? - ? 10. ? - , ? ? 11. ? - , ? 12 ? 12. ? - , ? 12 ? 12 13. ? - , ? 12 ? 12 14. , , ( , ) 15. 16. ? , 17. ? , 18. ? , 19. 20. Sally Clark case . Clark was a layer wrongly convicted in 1999 of the murder of her two baby sons, largely on the basis of Meadow's evidence; her conviction was quashed in 2003 after she had spent three years in jail.[ Sally Clark never recovered from the experience, developed a number of serious psychiatric problems including serious alcohol dependency and died in 2007 from alcohol poisoning 21. , , 22. ( , , ) = ? ( | ) = ? ( | B) = ? + = 23. ( | ) = ? ( | B) = ? + = 24. ( | ) = ? ( | B) = ? 25. ( | ) = ? ( | B) = ? : , 26. ( | ) = ? ( | B) = ? : , , ? , ? 0.1? 0.01? 0.001? 27. ( | ) = ? ( | B) = ? : , , ? , ? 0.1? 0.01? 0.001 - 28. : , , ? 0.1? 0.01? 0.001 - 29. Science and Pseudoscience in Law Enforcement: A User- Friendly Primer Lilienfeld 30. 31. : , , , , 32. : , , 33. http://www.slideshare.net/igorkleiner5/8-finaltotal 34. ? 1100010100101101010111001000100100100101110110010 10110010110010001011 01010111011100111000001111010100101011011001010010 011101110011111111001 35. ? 1100010100101101010111001000100100100101110110010 10110010110010001011 01010111011100111000001111010100101011011001010010 011101110011111111001 36. ? 1100010100101101010111001000100100100101110110010 10110010110010001011 01010111011100111000001111010100101011011001010010 011101110011111111001 37. ? 1100010100101101010111001000100100100101110110010 10110010110010001011 01010111011100111000001111010100101011011001010010 011101110011111111001 , n, ln(n) 38. , n, ln(n) n Ln(n) 100 5 1000 7 10 000 10 1 000 000 12 39. 40. , , , ? , n . 41. , , , ? n*ln(n) ! n n*ln(n) 50 200 100 500 200 1060 500 3100 42. , , , ? n*ln(n) ! n n*ln(n) 50 200 100 500 200 1060 500 3100 43. n . . , , , , ? 44. COUPON COLLECTOR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpGrGRf9J-U 45. 46. n , , ? 47. n , ? ( , ) ? 48. 49. n 10 6 50 13 100 18 500 40 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. , , , , , 55. : 2 (, , , ) : (, , , : , (,, ,, .) , ? 56. : , : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjRcGfAEdvE 57. 58. 59. 60. ? ? ? ? ! 61. ! , ? 62. ! , ? 63. ! , ? 64. : 4000*4000 . : 65. : : : 6*4000*4000 = 96 16 66. : : : 6*4000*4000 = 96 16 16 000000 * 96 000000 = 1500000 67. : : 16 000000 * 96 000000 = 1500000 68. : 16 000000 * 96 000000 = 1500000 ? , ? 69. : 16 000000 * 96 000000 = 1500000 ? , ? ! 70. : 90% : 0.9 ? 71. : 90% : 0.9 ? , , . 72. 1. 90% 2. 0.9 ? 73. 74. 1500000 ( ), 200 000 ( ) 15 000 000 000 . : Property testing for image segmentation 75. , n : , 76. : , : , 77. : , : , : , , 78. 79. 80. 0.5 81. 0.5 , ? 82. , ? 1 83. , ? 84. , ? 1 85. , 3D? 1 86. : Random Walks (Stochastic Processes) Random walks on electrical networks 87. - 88. 89. </p>

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