Modeling the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa, January 20th 2015 update

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1. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on ModelingtheEbola OutbreakinWestAfrica,2014 January20thUpdate BryanLewisPhD,MPH(blewis@vbi.vt.edu) presen2ngonbehalfofthe EbolaResponseTeamof NetworkDynamicsandSimula2onScienceLab fromtheVirginiaBioinforma2csIns2tuteatVirginiaTech TechnicalReport#15-008 2. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on NDSSLEbolaResponseTeam Sta:AbhijinAdiga,KathyAlexander,ChrisBarre.,Richard Beckman,KeithBisset,JiangzhuoChen,Youngyoun Chungbaek,StephenEubank,SandeepGupta,MaleqKhan, ChrisKuhlman,EricLofgren,BryanLewis,AchlaMarathe, MadhavMarathe,HenningMortveit,EricNordberg,Paula Stretz,SamarthSwarup,MeredithWilson,MandyWilson,and DawenXie,withsupportfromGingerStewart,Maureen Lawrence-Kuether,KaylaTyler,KathyLaskowski,Bill Marmagas Students:S.M.Arifuzzaman,AdityaAgashe,VivekAkupatni, CaitlinRivers,PyrrosTelionis,JessieGunter,ElisabethMusser, JamesSchli.,YoussefJemia,MargaretCarolan,Bryan Kaperick,WarnerRose,KaraHarrison 2 3. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on CurrentlyUsedData(asofJan14th,2014) DatafromWHO,MoHLiberia,and MoHSierraLeone,availableat h.ps://github.com/cmrivers/ebola MoHandWHOhavereasonableagreement SierraLeonecasecountscensoredup to4/30/14. Timeserieswaslledinwithmissing dates,andcasecountswere interpolated. 3 Cases Deaths Guinea 2,806 1,814 Liberia 8,331 3,538 SierraLeone 10,124 3,062 Total 21,261 8,414 4. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on LiberiaCaseLoca2ons 4 5. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on Liberiainfec2onrate 5 6. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on LiberiaForecast 6 12/1 5to 12/2 1 12/2 2to 12/2 8 12/2 9to 1/04 1/05 to 1/11 1/12 to 1/18 1/19 -1/2 5 1/26 -2/0 1 1/27 -2/0 1 2/02 - 2/08 2/09 - 2/15 Reported 35 101 131 116 Newer model 241 224 180 168 156 145 135 125 116 108 Reproduc2veNumber Community 0.3 Hospital 0.3 Funeral 0.2 Overall 0.8 7. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on Liberialongtermforecasts 7 Date Weeklyforecast 1/26 135 2/2 126 2/9 117 2/16 108 2/23 101 3/02 94 3/09 87 3/16 81 3/23 75 8. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on Liberia-Prevalence 8 Date PeopleinH+I 1/19 369 1/26 397 2/2 319 2/9 297 2/16 276 2/23 256 3/02 238 3/09 222 9. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneinfec2onrate 9 10. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneForecast 10 35%ofcasesare hospitalized ReproducQveNumber Community 0.7 Hospital 0.2 Funeral 0.1 Overall 1.0 12/15 to 12/21 12/22 to 12/28 12/29 to 1/04 1/05 to 1/11 1/12 to 1/18 1/19 - 1/25 1/26 - 2/01 2/02 - 2/08 2/09 - 2/15 Reported 531 651 467 344 Newermodel 571 583 595 607 620 632 645 658 671 11. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SLlongertermforecast 11 SierraLeoneNewerModeltWeeklyIncidence Date Weeklyforecast 1/19 632 1/26 645 2/2 558 2/9 671 2/16 685 2/23 699 3/02 713 3/09 727 3/16 741 3/23 756 12. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeone-Prevalence 12 Date PeopleinH+I 1/12 847 1/19 864 1/26 882 2/2 900 2/9 918 2/16 937 2/23 995 3/02 1015 3/09 1034 13. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on GuineaForecasts 13 40%ofcasesare hospitalized ReproducQveNumber Community 0.7 Hospital 0.1 Funeral 0.1 Overall 0.9 12/15 to 12/21 12/22 to 12/28 12/29 to 1/04 1/05 to 1/11 1/12 to 1/18 1/19 - 1/25 1/26 - 2/01 2/02 - 2/08 2/09 - 2/15 Reported 132 166 106 62 Newermodel 78 75 72 68 86 84 82 80 78 14. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on Guinealongertermforecast 14 Date Weeklyforecast 1/19 63 1/26 60 2/2 58 2/9 55 2/16 53 2/23 51 3/02 48 15. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on GuineaPrevalence 15 Date PeopleinH+I 1/19 76 1/26 72 2/2 69 2/9 66 2/16 64 2/23 61 3/02 58 16. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on AgentBasedModel LongdistancetravelforSierraLeone Explora2onofDynamicsofinfec2on Agedistribu2on Household PreliminaryVaccinecampaignresults Ongoingstudies: Ex2nc2onstudyhowlikelyisEbolatogoex2nct bychanceunderdierentcondi2ons Loca2onbasedtarge2ngofvaccinecampaign 16 17. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneLongDistanceTravel Iden2edmismatchwithFlowminderdata 17 County Flowmider PopulaQon NDSSL PopulaQon NDSSL FracQon 2010 EsQmate Wikipedia NDSSL FracQon Kailahun 472,521 427,574 0.90 409,520 1.04 Kenema 690,511 538,120 0.78 545,327 0.99 Kono 538,271 383,369 0.71 352,328 1.09 Bombali 550,437 469,677 0.85 434,319 1.08 Kambia 362,084 271,352 0.75 313,765 0.86 Koinadugu 358,522 279,423 0.78 251,091 1.11 PortLoko 612,547 539,616 0.88 500,992 1.08 Tonkolili 472,176 428,895 0.91 385,322 1.11 Bo 641,236 547,713 0.85 561,524 0.98 Bonthe 191,754 164,805 0.86 140,845 1.17 Moyamba 352,832 283,422 0.80 252,390 1.12 Pujehun 316,360 288,496 0.91 252,390 1.14 Western_Urban 540,326 946,629 1.75 1,473,873 0.64 Western_Rural 775,376 110,278 0.14 205,400 0.54 Uncatogorized 64,356 Total 6,874,954 5,743,725 0.84 6,079,086 0.94 WesternCombined 1,315,702 1,056,907 0.80 1,679,273 0.63 18. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneAgeDistribu2on 18 19. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneHouseholdDynamics 19 20. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneHouseholdDynamics 20 21. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeoneHouseholdDynamics 21 22. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on SierraLeonePrelimVaxCampaign StudyDesign: CalibratedspreadtocurrentSierraLeone outbreak 300kvaccinesavailable,earlyFebruary Appliedwithhighandlowcompliancetocontacts ofcasesandothersincommunity Ecacylevelsof30,50,80 22 23. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on PrelimVaxCampaign 23 BaselineCase 24. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on PrelimVaxCampaign 24 Several Replicates provideagood matchto observed 25. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on PrelimVaxCampaign 25 WithVaccine InearlyFeb (Day305) Several Replicates provideagood matchto observed Lowcompliance 30%ecacy Highcompliance 50%ecacy 26. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on PrelimVaxCampaign 26 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 baseline ecacy30- compliancelow ecacy30- compliancehigh ecacy50- compliancelow ecacy50- compliancehigh ecacy80- compliancelow ecacy80- compliancehigh Cases60daysaXervaxcampaignstarted 27. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on PrelimVaxCampaign 27 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% ecacy30- compliancelow ecacy30- compliancehigh ecacy50- compliancelow ecacy50- compliancehigh ecacy80- compliancelow ecacy80- compliancehigh ReducQonincasesfrombaselineaXer60days 28. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on AppDevelopment EpiViewerAggregatorof Eyes-on-the-Ground Liberianversion SierraLeoneversion 28 29. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on EpiViewer Readyforuse,preloadedwithforecasts 29 30. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on Eyes-on-the-Ground Fixedmanyissuesforolderbrowsersand rewallrestric2ons Liberiaversionreadyforwidespreaduse: h.p://socialeyes.vbi.vt.edu/eyesontheground/ surveypage.jsp Includesdetailedreportpage: 30 31. DRAFTNotfora.ribu2onordistribu2on Eyes-on-the-Ground RoadNetworkavailableandanalyzedfor SierraLeone Es2matesbetweentownsavailable Supportformul2plecountriesetc.requires moredevelopmentonAppserverbackend 31