Disruptive Analysis - Telecoms Futurism

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<ul><li><p>TelcoFuturism.</p><p> and why it matters to all service providers</p><p>Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis</p><p>Metaswitch Forum, May 2016</p><p>dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean</p><p>mailto:dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com</p></li><li><p>About Disruptive Analysis</p><p> Tech/telecom analyst &amp; strategic consulting</p><p> Futurism, Forecasting &amp; anti-forecasting</p><p> Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.</p><p> Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models &amp; regs Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV</p><p> Not a deep technical specialist or developer</p><p> Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators &amp; investors</p><p> Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US &amp; Asia</p><p>Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>Communications is more than just calls &amp; conferences</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>The Future is getting closer, faster</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Predicted 1916</p><p>Discovered 2016</p><p>DARPA Challenge 2004</p><p>Mainstream 2017/18</p><p>Released 2009</p><p>Mainstream 2014</p><p>Invented 2012</p><p>Mainstream 2015</p><p>Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer</p><p>Released 2010</p><p>Mainstream 2014</p><p>Not just mainstream but spinoffs &amp; variations proliferating</p><p>CRISPR</p></li><li><p>Futurism isnt just for the crazy guys in the labs any more</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning</p><p>Now: 3-5yrs Foresight</p><p>Soon: 1-2yrs Aware</p><p>Sci-Fi Lab </p><p>Concept</p><p>Business </p><p>Reality</p></li><li><p>The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Chapter by Dean Bubley: </p><p>The Future of the Phone Call</p><p>Other Chapters cover:</p><p>AI &amp; machine-learning</p><p>Analytics &amp; Big Data</p><p>Contextual computing</p><p>Crowds &amp; the Sharing Economy</p><p>Wearables &amp; quantified-self</p><p>3D-printing</p><p>IoT, Robots &amp; drones</p><p>Autonomous vehicles</p><p>Longevity &amp; human enhancement</p><p>Green Tech</p><p>Financial systems &amp; money</p><p>Political &amp; social change</p></li><li><p>Opportunity &amp; value arises at tech intersections</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>An</p><p>aly</p><p>tic</p><p>s &amp;</p><p>Ma</p><p>ch</p><p>ine</p><p> le</p><p>arn</p><p>ing</p><p>We</p><p>ara</p><p>ble</p><p>s &amp;</p><p>futu</p><p>re w</p><p>ellb</p><p>ein</p><p>g</p><p>IoT</p><p> &amp; s</p><p>en</p><p>so</p><p>rs</p><p>Fin</p><p>Te</p><p>ch</p><p> &amp; </p><p>Blo</p><p>ck</p><p>ch</p><p>ain</p><p>Urb</p><p>an</p><p>isa</p><p>tio</p><p>n</p><p>&amp; s</p><p>ma</p><p>rt c</p><p>itie</p><p>s</p><p>Bio</p><p>me</p><p>dic</p><p>al te</p><p>ch</p><p>&amp; h</p><p>um</p><p>an</p><p> en</p><p>ha</p><p>nc</p><p>em</p><p>en</p><p>t </p><p>Voice/Video Comms, Collaboration, Context &amp; WebRTC</p><p>Future Networks: 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, SDN/NFV etc</p></li><li><p>Smartphones + Crowdsourcing + Developer Platforms</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Innovation mainly needs imagination &amp; motivation. Not money.</p></li><li><p>Most telcos &amp; telco execs dont understand the future</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p> and most futurists dont understand telecoms</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Telcos &amp; </p><p>banks will all </p><p>merge</p><p>Everything </p><p>will be </p><p>mobile</p><p>Wireless </p><p>power will be </p><p>beamed from </p><p>cell towers</p></li><li><p>Focus on purpose &amp; context</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>Avoid strategic over-reach: platforms are expensive</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016</p><p>Source: RGBstock.com</p></li><li><p>Think about orthogonal trends in society &amp; business</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016</p></li><li><p>Intersections are bi-directional</p><p>Drones using telecoms</p><p> 5G connectivity for control</p><p> Streaming video</p><p> Identity / security</p><p> Industrial verticals</p><p> Entertainment &amp; consumer</p><p> Precision-agriculture svcs</p><p> Public safety applications</p><p>Telecoms using drones</p><p> Site inspection/maintenance</p><p> Coverage testing/mapping</p><p> Delivery B2B / B2C</p><p> Temporary network capacity</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>Telecoms meets AI &amp; machine-learning</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Pricing modelsEnergy </p><p>ManagementFraud Detection</p><p>Churn Reduction</p><p>Quasi-QoS</p><p>Path Optimisation Multiple variables Capacity Planning</p></li><li><p>Analytics/Learning Voice search &amp; emotional analysis</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>Empathy-as-a-service</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p> also see IBM Watson APIs</p></li><li><p>Blockchain</p><p> Mesh networks</p><p> Microbilling</p><p> IoT identity</p><p> Internal security for SDN</p><p> Alternative routing paths</p><p> Roaming agreements </p><p> Early movers:</p><p> Verizon/Filament</p><p> Orange Chainforce</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>Sources of value in communications</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Before a call </p><p>/ session</p><p>Signal / check </p><p>availability</p><p>Signal</p><p>purpose</p><p>Timing</p><p>Setup &amp; </p><p>configuration</p><p>Rendezvous</p><p>Device</p><p>Identity</p><p>During a call </p><p>/ session</p><p>Quality &amp; </p><p>acoustics</p><p>Handoff</p><p>Translation</p><p>Realtime </p><p>analysis</p><p>Relevant data</p><p>Multi-party</p><p>UI / control</p><p>Interop</p><p>After a call / </p><p>session</p><p>Record &amp; tag</p><p>Next actions</p><p>Ratings</p><p>Post-call </p><p>analytics</p><p>Ephemerality</p><p>OUTCOMES</p><p>Reason for a </p><p>call / session</p><p>Triggers</p><p>Scheduling</p><p>Forms</p><p>Choice / </p><p>negotiation of </p><p>channel</p><p>Context</p><p>Social</p><p>Workflow</p><p>Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity</p><p>. this is just a starting point</p></li><li><p>Enterprise voice &amp; UC trends evolving fast</p><p>Context</p><p>Conversations</p><p>Convenience: Todays UC</p><p>Calls: Historic &amp; Functional</p><p> App-embedded comms</p><p> Purpose-driven comms</p><p> Analytics &amp; IoT integration</p><p> Multi-channel</p><p> Workstream/ social</p><p> Persistent collaboration</p><p> Cloud &amp; hybrid delivery</p><p> UCaaS</p><p> Mobile, BYOD</p><p> Basic telephony &amp; IM</p><p> Simple conferencing</p><p> Desktop video</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p></li><li><p>Engaging with the future.</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>Cross-Organisation </p><p>InvolvementPartners &amp; Vendors</p><p>Competitions, Incubators &amp; </p><p>Hackathons</p></li><li><p>www.disruptive-analysis.com</p><p>disruptivewireless.blogspot.com</p><p>@disruptivedean</p><p>information@disruptive-analysis.com</p><p>Skype:disruptiveanalysis</p><p>appear.in/disruptiveanalysis</p><p>Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016</p><p>http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/mailto:dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com</p></li></ul>