Disruptive Analysis - Telecoms Futurism

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  • TelcoFuturism.

    and why it matters to all service providers

    Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

    Metaswitch Forum, May 2016

    dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

    mailto:dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com

  • About Disruptive Analysis

    Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting

    Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting

    Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

    Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV

    Not a deep technical specialist or developer

    Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors

    Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia

    Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • Communications is more than just calls & conferences

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • The Future is getting closer, faster

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Predicted 1916

    Discovered 2016

    DARPA Challenge 2004

    Mainstream 2017/18

    Released 2009

    Mainstream 2014

    Invented 2012

    Mainstream 2015

    Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer

    Released 2010

    Mainstream 2014

    Not just mainstream but spinoffs & variations proliferating

    CRISPR

  • Futurism isnt just for the crazy guys in the labs any more

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning

    Now: 3-5yrs Foresight

    Soon: 1-2yrs Aware

    Sci-Fi Lab

    Concept

    Business

    Reality

  • The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Chapter by Dean Bubley:

    The Future of the Phone Call

    Other Chapters cover:

    AI & machine-learning

    Analytics & Big Data

    Contextual computing

    Crowds & the Sharing Economy

    Wearables & quantified-self

    3D-printing

    IoT, Robots & drones

    Autonomous vehicles

    Longevity & human enhancement

    Green Tech

    Financial systems & money

    Political & social change

  • Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    An

    aly

    tic

    s &

    Ma

    ch

    ine

    le

    arn

    ing

    We

    ara

    ble

    s &

    futu

    re w

    ellb

    ein

    g

    IoT

    & s

    en

    so

    rs

    Fin

    Te

    ch

    &

    Blo

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    Urb

    an

    isa

    tio

    n

    & s

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    rt c

    itie

    s

    Bio

    me

    dic

    al te

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    & h

    um

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    en

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    Voice/Video Comms, Collaboration, Context & WebRTC

    Future Networks: 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, SDN/NFV etc

  • Smartphones + Crowdsourcing + Developer Platforms

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Innovation mainly needs imagination & motivation. Not money.

  • Most telcos & telco execs dont understand the future

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • and most futurists dont understand telecoms

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Telcos &

    banks will all

    merge

    Everything

    will be

    mobile

    Wireless

    power will be

    beamed from

    cell towers

  • Focus on purpose & context

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • Avoid strategic over-reach: platforms are expensive

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016

    Source: RGBstock.com

  • Think about orthogonal trends in society & business

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016

  • Intersections are bi-directional

    Drones using telecoms

    5G connectivity for control

    Streaming video

    Identity / security

    Industrial verticals

    Entertainment & consumer

    Precision-agriculture svcs

    Public safety applications

    Telecoms using drones

    Site inspection/maintenance

    Coverage testing/mapping

    Delivery B2B / B2C

    Temporary network capacity

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • Telecoms meets AI & machine-learning

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    Pricing modelsEnergy

    ManagementFraud Detection

    Churn Reduction

    Quasi-QoS

    Path Optimisation Multiple variables Capacity Planning

  • Analytics/Learning Voice search & emotional analysis

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • Empathy-as-a-service

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    also see IBM Watson APIs

  • Blockchain

    Mesh networks

    Microbilling

    IoT identity

    Internal security for SDN

    Alternative routing paths

    Roaming agreements

    Early movers:

    Verizon/Filament

    Orange Chainforce

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • Sources of value in communications

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Before a call

    / session

    Signal / check

    availability

    Signal

    purpose

    Timing

    Setup &

    configuration

    Rendezvous

    Device

    Identity

    During a call

    / session

    Quality &

    acoustics

    Handoff

    Translation

    Realtime

    analysis

    Relevant data

    Multi-party

    UI / control

    Interop

    After a call /

    session

    Record & tag

    Next actions

    Ratings

    Post-call

    analytics

    Ephemerality

    OUTCOMES

    Reason for a

    call / session

    Triggers

    Scheduling

    Forms

    Choice /

    negotiation of

    channel

    Context

    Social

    Workflow

    Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity

    . this is just a starting point

  • Enterprise voice & UC trends evolving fast

    Context

    Conversations

    Convenience: Todays UC

    Calls: Historic & Functional

    App-embedded comms

    Purpose-driven comms

    Analytics & IoT integration

    Multi-channel

    Workstream/ social

    Persistent collaboration

    Cloud & hybrid delivery

    UCaaS

    Mobile, BYOD

    Basic telephony & IM

    Simple conferencing

    Desktop video

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

  • Engaging with the future.

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    Cross-Organisation

    InvolvementPartners & Vendors

    Competitions, Incubators &

    Hackathons

  • www.disruptive-analysis.com

    disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

    @disruptivedean

    information@disruptive-analysis.com

    Skype:disruptiveanalysis

    appear.in/disruptiveanalysis

    Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

    http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/mailto:dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com