Session 2 dorte verner

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  • 1. Towards aRegional Flagship Report Beirut, February 2012Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank
2.  CC is the development challenge ofour time in the Arab countries CC is a threat to poverty reductionand economic growth May reverse many of the development gains made in recent decades This calls for action We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010) 3. Current andprojected climatevariability andCalls for climatechange change adaptation to reduce theIncreased Vulnerability negative impactsOther stresses, and build climatee.g.: resilientIncrease in communities population, urbanizationand educationin the Arab countries 4.  Flagship Report provides:▪ Information on climate change and consequences and▪ Practical guidance on CC adaptation for policymakers▪ Opportunity for collaboration between LAS, 20+ regional researchersand advisors Addresses theArab region as awhole The IPCC reports splits the Arab world in 2 parts: North Africa Arabian Peninsula 5.  Climate change is happening now - 2010: the warmest year since late 1800s when records began▪ Kuwait (52.6°C), Iraq & Saudi Arab. (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C) & Sudan(49.7°C) Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean-water temperature Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods 6.  In recent decades Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3°C per decade▪ More frequent and intense heat waves Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods 7.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4°C/decade 1.5 times faster than the global average Most of North Africa and the easternMediterranean will become drier Greater variability and more extremes 8.  Throughout history people have coped with aharsh environment 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300years of reduced rainfall and colder temperaturesthat forced people to abandon their rainfed fieldsin NE Syria With CC, coping strategies that people haveexploited throughout history may no longer beavailable and adequate 9.  Temperature increases and changes inprecipitation are likely to CGE model Reduce household incomes - Syria $3.4 B, Yemen $5.7 Bby 2050 (taking into account autonomous adaptation) Droughts Reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year Increase poverty levels by 0.3-1.4 pp 10.  Droughts reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year (CGE) Worsens food security significantly - the poor are hitthe hardest▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp▪ Poor farm households are most affected, followed by ruralnonfarm and urban households 11.  In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction inwater run-off due to climate change Today there is a 16% renewable water supply gap, in 2050 The region likely face a 50% renewable water supply gap450Renewable Water Resources400 16% 37%51%350Total Water Demand300 Water, km3250% of demand unmet by200renewable150sources100 50 02000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050year 12.  70% of the poorest people live in rural areas and Among the most vulnerable to CC Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080due to high dependence on climate-sensitiveagriculture Stresses to local food production systems calls forincreased import Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease foodaccess for vulnerable households Social safety nets and other programs are called for 13. Urbanization % 80 ~70% live along the37,000 km60developed coastline; 40in low-lying coastal 20zones019601970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Arab World World YemenUAETunisia Without basic services, residents of informal settlementshave little capacity to adapt to climate hazards CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front whenmaking infrastructure investment decisions 14.  CC impacts men and women differently Women often responsible for natural resource & household management & have limited participation in the decision-making process => Smart climate policy is inclusive process- youth, men &women take part in the decision-making to increase climateresilience90 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)8070605040Women30Men2010 0Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen 15.  Diversify Economic activities both at household level & national levelto increase climate resilience Integrate Adaptation Into all projects; not stand-alone adaptation projects Apply for All Rich and poor and most sectors will be impacted by CC Leadership A holistic approach is called for, incl. youth , men & women 16.  October 2011: Draft to LAS & Gov’s for comments▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS▪ Consultations in: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE January & February 2012: Incorporating commentsprovided by the governments, etc. & finalize report Spring 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ... 17.  Italian Development Cooperation European Union International Fund for Agricultural Development League of Arab States World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit 18. Thank You ‫شكرا‬
1. Towards aRegional Flagship Report Beirut, February 2012Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank 2.  CC is the development challenge…