• 1. Towards aRegional Flagship Report Beirut, February 2012Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank
  • 2.  CC is the development challenge ofour time in the Arab countries CC is a threat to poverty reductionand economic growth May reverse many of the development gains made in recent decades This calls for action We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010)
  • 3. Current andprojected climatevariability andCalls for climatechange change adaptation to reduce theIncreased Vulnerability negative impactsOther stresses, and build climatee.g.: resilientIncrease in communities population, urbanizationand educationin the Arab countries
  • 4.  Flagship Report provides:▪ Information on climate change and consequences and▪ Practical guidance on CC adaptation for policymakers▪ Opportunity for collaboration between LAS, 20+ regional researchersand advisors Addresses theArab region as awhole The IPCC reports splits the Arab world in 2 parts: North Africa Arabian Peninsula
  • 5.  Climate change is happening now - 2010: the warmest year since late 1800s when records began▪ Kuwait (52.6°C), Iraq & Saudi Arab. (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C) & Sudan(49.7°C) Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean-water temperature Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods
  • 6.  In recent decades Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3°C per decade▪ More frequent and intense heat waves Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods
  • 7.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4°C/decade 1.5 times faster than the global average Most of North Africa and the easternMediterranean will become drier Greater variability and more extremes
  • 8.  Throughout history people have coped with aharsh environment 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300years of reduced rainfall and colder temperaturesthat forced people to abandon their rainfed fieldsin NE Syria With CC, coping strategies that people haveexploited throughout history may no longer beavailable and adequate
  • 9.  Temperature increases and changes inprecipitation are likely to CGE model Reduce household incomes - Syria $3.4 B, Yemen $5.7 Bby 2050 (taking into account autonomous adaptation) Droughts Reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year Increase poverty levels by 0.3-1.4 pp
  • 10.  Droughts reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year (CGE) Worsens food security significantly - the poor are hitthe hardest▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp▪ Poor farm households are most affected, followed by ruralnonfarm and urban households
  • 11.  In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction inwater run-off due to climate change Today there is a 16% renewable water supply gap, in 2050 The region likely face a 50% renewable water supply gap450Renewable Water Resources400 16% 37%51%350Total Water Demand300 Water, km3250% of demand unmet by200renewable150sources100 50 02000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050year
  • 12.  70% of the poorest people live in rural areas and Among the most vulnerable to CC Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080due to high dependence on climate-sensitiveagriculture Stresses to local food production systems calls forincreased import Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease foodaccess for vulnerable households Social safety nets and other programs are called for
  • 13. Urbanization % 80 ~70% live along the37,000 km60developed coastline; 40in low-lying coastal 20zones019601970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Arab World World YemenUAETunisia Without basic services, residents of informal settlementshave little capacity to adapt to climate hazards CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front whenmaking infrastructure investment decisions
  • 14.  CC impacts men and women differently Women often responsible for natural resource & household management & have limited participation in the decision-making process => Smart climate policy is inclusive process- youth, men &women take part in the decision-making to increase climateresilience90 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)8070605040Women30Men2010 0Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen
  • 15.  Diversify Economic activities both at household level & national levelto increase climate resilience Integrate Adaptation Into all projects; not stand-alone adaptation projects Apply for All Rich and poor and most sectors will be impacted by CC Leadership A holistic approach is called for, incl. youth , men & women
  • 16.  October 2011: Draft to LAS & Gov’s for comments▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS▪ Consultations in: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE January & February 2012: Incorporating commentsprovided by the governments, etc. & finalize report Spring 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...
  • 17.  Italian Development Cooperation European Union International Fund for Agricultural Development League of Arab States World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit
  • 18. Thank You ‫شكرا‬
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    • 1. Towards aRegional Flagship Report Beirut, February 2012Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank
  • 2.  CC is the development challenge ofour time in the Arab countries CC is a threat to poverty reductionand economic growth May reverse many of the development gains made in recent decades This calls for action We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010)
  • 3. Current andprojected climatevariability andCalls for climatechange change adaptation to reduce theIncreased Vulnerability negative impactsOther stresses, and build climatee.g.: resilientIncrease in communities population, urbanizationand educationin the Arab countries
  • 4.  Flagship Report provides:▪ Information on climate change and consequences and▪ Practical guidance on CC adaptation for policymakers▪ Opportunity for collaboration between LAS, 20+ regional researchersand advisors Addresses theArab region as awhole The IPCC reports splits the Arab world in 2 parts: North Africa Arabian Peninsula
  • 5.  Climate change is happening now - 2010: the warmest year since late 1800s when records began▪ Kuwait (52.6°C), Iraq & Saudi Arab. (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C) & Sudan(49.7°C) Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean-water temperature Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods
  • 6.  In recent decades Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3°C per decade▪ More frequent and intense heat waves Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods
  • 7.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4°C/decade 1.5 times faster than the global average Most of North Africa and the easternMediterranean will become drier Greater variability and more extremes
  • 8.  Throughout history people have coped with aharsh environment 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300years of reduced rainfall and colder temperaturesthat forced people to abandon their rainfed fieldsin NE Syria With CC, coping strategies that people haveexploited throughout history may no longer beavailable and adequate
  • 9.  Temperature increases and changes inprecipitation are likely to CGE model Reduce household incomes - Syria $3.4 B, Yemen $5.7 Bby 2050 (taking into account autonomous adaptation) Droughts Reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year Increase poverty levels by 0.3-1.4 pp
  • 10.  Droughts reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year (CGE) Worsens food security significantly - the poor are hitthe hardest▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp▪ Poor farm households are most affected, followed by ruralnonfarm and urban households
  • 11.  In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction inwater run-off due to climate change Today there is a 16% renewable water supply gap, in 2050 The region likely face a 50% renewable water supply gap450Renewable Water Resources400 16% 37%51%350Total Water Demand300 Water, km3250% of demand unmet by200renewable150sources100 50 02000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050year
  • 12.  70% of the poorest people live in rural areas and Among the most vulnerable to CC Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080due to high dependence on climate-sensitiveagriculture Stresses to local food production systems calls forincreased import Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease foodaccess for vulnerable households Social safety nets and other programs are called for
  • 13. Urbanization % 80 ~70% live along the37,000 km60developed coastline; 40in low-lying coastal 20zones019601970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Arab World World YemenUAETunisia Without basic services, residents of informal settlementshave little capacity to adapt to climate hazards CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front whenmaking infrastructure investment decisions
  • 14.  CC impacts men and women differently Women often responsible for natural resource & household management & have limited participation in the decision-making process => Smart climate policy is inclusive process- youth, men &women take part in the decision-making to increase climateresilience90 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)8070605040Women30Men2010 0Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen
  • 15.  Diversify Economic activities both at household level & national levelto increase climate resilience Integrate Adaptation Into all projects; not stand-alone adaptation projects Apply for All Rich and poor and most sectors will be impacted by CC Leadership A holistic approach is called for, incl. youth , men & women
  • 16.  October 2011: Draft to LAS & Gov’s for comments▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS▪ Consultations in: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE January & February 2012: Incorporating commentsprovided by the governments, etc. & finalize report Spring 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...
  • 17.  Italian Development Cooperation European Union International Fund for Agricultural Development League of Arab States World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit
  • 18. Thank You ‫شكرا‬
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